At The Beginning Of A Sustained Downturn In California
The Recordnet reports from California. "The existing home sales market is down about 40 percent from a year ago, said (broker) Jerry Abbott. The number of houses for sale jumped, likely because of foreclosure listings, from 4,119 in February to 4,580 last month. 'It's been disappointing when comparing to the year before, and last year was a bad year,' Abbott said. 'Nobody expected it to turn down this far.'"
The Ventura County Star. "Ventura County's median sales price for new and existing homes and condominiums plummeted 6.9 percent in March to $566,750, Southern California's biggest year-over-year decline,."
"Closed sales were off too, down 24.7 percent to 999, according to DataQuick."
"Tony Deleo, broker in Ventura, said he thinks DataQuick's estimate of a 24.7 percent sales volume decline is too conservative. 'My estimate would be 40 percent,' Deleo said, 'and I believe the median price is off way more than 6.9 percent.'"
The San Francisco Chronicle. "The median price paid for a Bay Area home in March was up, but the chorus still isn't singing 'Happy Days Are Here Again.'"
"'We had such a large run-up (in home prices) in the state as a whole in the last four years and now there is excess inventory in unsold houses, in San Diego, Sacramento, Orange County and the Central Valley in particular,' said Ken Rosen, director of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at UC Berkeley. 'Usually, the reaction time to an overheated market is two to three years.'"
"'I think prices will come down over the next year or so,' said Stephen Levy, director of Palo Alto's Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy. 'Because I think there are more people under pressure to sell now than there were a year ago and there are fewer buyers. I think we are at the beginning of a period of a sustained downturn.'"
"The husband and wife work as strawberry pickers in the fields around Watsonville, and each earns about $300 a week. They have three children. Not only did they dream the impossible dream, they managed to finance it."
"How did a strawberry picker earning $15,000 a year qualify for a loan of $720,000? The answer, say the experts, lies in a lending industry that got too innovative for its own good."
The Mercury News. "Brent Maier and his wife, Mari, were looking at townhouses in Cupertino and surrounding towns in February, with the hope of moving from their current home in Fairfield. But 'in our area there are a lot of houses for sale,' Maier said."
"If they'd sold their four-bedroom house six or seven months ago, he said, they might have gotten $515,000 for it, but now, he said, the value is in the $460,000-to-$470,000 range, and some homes in the city are sitting on the market for months."
"In Solano County, which includes Fairfield, the median house price fell in March to $439,000, 3.4 percent less than a year earlier, according to DataQuick. Along with Solano County, only Napa and Sonoma counties experienced median price declines in the Bay Area."
"'We don't want to be in that situation where we're letting it languish,' Maier said So he and his wife have reluctantly put their South Bay home search on hold for now. 'The desire, for us, is still there, but the reality is causing us to pause.'"
The Sacramento Bee. "For two months, it looked like Sacramento might finally be climbing out of its housing slump. Then the bottom fell out of the subprime loan market and threw home sellers a curve. DataQuick reported that the median price of homes fell from February to March in five of eight area counties."
"'It's kind of a tough market,' said Pradeep Gosai, who relisted his $529,000 house in Natomas this week after turning down offers last year that were 'different from what we wanted. Now it's a lower price than last year. I hope we make it,' he said."
"Sacramento real estate agent Carey Covey said many first-time buyers no longer qualify for today's more demanding loans. 'They actually wanted the buyers to have a pretty good credit history and a job and some income coming in,' said Covey, who now is trying to sell 42 properties repossessed by the banks."
"'Certainly, (sales) dropped in March, and we haven't actually seen a comeback yet in April,' said Mark Levens, VP of Newport Beach-based John Laing Homes."
The Contra Costa Times. "Michael Tacconi, a mortgage broker with Meridian Financial in San Ramon, said several sellers and builders are often paying closing costs and loan fees rather than lowering the actual costs of homes, something that keeps the neighbors happy."
"'In the East County, there has been Pulte Homes offering $100,000 towards closing costs,' he said. 'Sellers and builders are doing whatever they can to sell.'"
The Orange County Register. "The spring home-selling season is off to a slow start in Orange County, with local home sales down 25.5 percent and prices up just slightly from a year ago. It was the slowest March since 1995, and sales had fallen 44 percent from the March record of 5,577 homes sold that was set two years ago."
"'This spring is not as busy for most agents,' said Les Fujimoto, an agent in Yorba Linda. 'Our office as a whole sold over 30 homes last month. It was better than March 2006. But if you take (into account) January and what April's starting to be and eeeee, it's scary. I don't think (the market has) turned around yet.'"
"'January and February were fantastic,' said Carla McKendry, a real estate broker in Yorba Linda. Then, she said, 'right around March 15, the bottom dropped out. Everything came to a screeching halt. It's probably because of all the bad press on the subprime market.'"
The LA Times. "In the Inland Empire, things aren't looking so good. Gretchen Barrantes, a Moreno Valley agent, did eight deals in the first quarter of 2006. This year she's done 14. But all were either foreclosures or short sales in which the sale price was less than the outstanding mortgage."
"People don't want to compete with foreclosure prices, she said, so they keep their homes off the market. 'I haven't had a regular sale in a long time,' she said."
The Daily Press. "Despite a rebound in residential sales in March, home prices fell in the Victor Valley as the single-family housing market sustained an ongoing slump."
"March closing were down 54.6 percent year-over-year, while prices registered a decline of 9.4 percent, according to Century 21 data. 'There’s no question that housing prices are too high in the Inland Empire and throughout Southern California,' said economist John Husing."
"The recent trend toward adjustable-rate and interest-only mortgages raises concerns over a surge in repossession activity, which could deflate prices even further. 'There are likely to be more foreclosures and short sales in the near future,' said Jim Philips, a broker in Victorville."
The Press Enterprise. "Last month, Riverside County's 3,680 sales were down 47.3 percent from a year ago, and San Bernardino County's 2,476 sales marked a 46.6 percent drop."
"The Inland region has so far avoided actual price declines, which has been seen in recent months in San Diego and Ventura counties. But experts said it's just a matter of time before the numbers turn negative."
"'If you look at the historical norms, when the patterns trend flat for several months, they generally go negative eventually,' said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage."
"On April 1, Mission Viejo-based builder Prosperity Homes had a live auction for condos available in San Bernardino."
"'It was a good response.' Prosperity CFO Rob Wallstrom said. 'We auctioned 23 condos and sold 23 condos at an average discount of 15.3 percent' off the original asking prices, he said."