Dropping In Value Steeper Than The Median Indicates
A report from the Colorodoan. "As subprime lenders close their doors, foreclosure rates increase and home prices dip, the American dream has turned rapidly frightening. 'The end result is that fewer people will get into homes,' said Cynthia Torp, founder of The Angel Investment Network in Fort Collins, which helps people qualify for new home loans."
"'We have an excess supply of housing,' regional economist Martin Shields said. 'Any time there is a tightening of credit and foreclosures, it reduces the demand and foreclosures increase the supply. It has to put more pressure on prices.'"
"Longtime Loveland Realtor Eric Holsapple said the subprime meltdown will affect a certain sector of the population, but overall it will not be a bad thing for Larimer County."
"'So many of the loans were adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS) or interest-only loans; they got people in who couldn't afford it,' he said. 'The only way it could work is if the home kept appreciating in value. That's not the American dream to have a home that's a risky investment for people and 100 percent financed.'"
"With Colorado leading the nation in foreclosures much of last year, many lenders are taking 5 percent off every appraisal and borrowers have to put up bigger down payments. 'There will be a whole lot less people who can afford that,' Torp said."
"If foreclosures continue on their current pace, Larimer County’s foreclosure rate is expected to increase by about 20 percent by the end of the year."
"Seventy-five percent of those foreclosures are the result of refinancing, said Kathi Williams, director of the Colorado Division of Housing in Denver."
The Greeley Tribune. "Colorado came in at No. 2 in the nation for foreclosure rates, recording 16,435 foreclosures from January through March. That represents a 6 percent jump from the same time last year."
"In Weld County, the first quarter recorded 647 foreclosures through the Public Trustee's office, a 31.5 percent jump from the same time last year. For the year, there have been 865 foreclosures in Weld."
The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. "Reports of Arizona mortgage fraud spiked last year, mirroring a nationwide trend, as lenders scrutinized deals more closely and falling home prices unmasked shams."
"'The Southwest United States has been an increasing hotbed for mortgage fraud activity,' said Nick Larson, assistant VP for the Mortgage Asset Research Institute."
"'When you have a lot of bidding on properties, it really does strain a lender’s ability to differentiate between a legitimate loan' and schemes, Larson said."
"The number of fraud cases reported in Arizona in the first three months of 2006 was 213 percent higher than the same period the year prior, according to the study. The state also saw an increase in the number of fraud cases involving subprime loans, jumping to No. 6 in the nation from No. 19 in 2005."
"Eric Bowlby, president of Amerifirst Financial in Mesa, said he interviewed more than 150 job applicants in the past three months, hired 11 and fired five. 'We have too many people in the industry,' he said. 'When you have an uneducated sales force, fraud is going to run rampant.'"
"The Valley has seen lenders pushing for false appraisals, misusing stated-income loans, conducting cash-back schemes and more, Mesa loan officer Shailesh Ghimire said. Everybody saw prices going up and tried to make it work, Ghimire said."
"Now his business is feeling the pinch of tightening lending guidelines resulting from the subprime market crisis. Last year, it would have been possible to qualify someone with a 580 credit score, but now we need a 620 score, he said."
"'The last two months, I’ve seen guidelines change completely,' Ghimire said."
The Review Journal from Nevada. "Home Builders Research reported another dismal month for housing in Las Vegas in April, home building analyst Dennis Smith said Wednesday."
"He counted 1,568 recorded new home sales in April, a 40.7 percent decline from the same month a year ago. Existing home sales fell 36.6 percent to 2,353, the second-lowest monthly total in the past six years."'
"This correction or slump or slide or dip or whatever you want to call it is deeper and longer than most expected,' Smith said. 'It will get better, but until sales and permits improve, it will continue to be very painful for a lot of folks and businesses.'"
"'We all agree we have limited land supply and we continue to have strong economic growth in Las Vegas, regardless of residential construction. The key for us is residential listings must drop before this market improves. Part of that is owners are not pricing their houses properly and that's why they're not selling,' Pardee Homes Division President Klif Andrews said."
"Robin Camacho of Direct Access Lending said she can see that the median price isn't accurately reflecting house values right now, but she can really only make an educated guess as to why."
"'Our research does show that the number of homes listed on the MLS for less than $270,000 has increased substantially in the past year,' she said. 'This indicates that prices are falling, though people are actually still paying the same but getting more for their money.'"
"Camacho said she can spot when prices are rising or falling earlier than most analysts with her up-to-the-minute data, but she hesitates to give exact figures as she uses a different indicator."
"'It is very accurate in terms of direction, sort of like a compass in that I can see the general direction we are traveling,' she said. 'And what I definitely see is that houses are dropping in value at a steeper decline than the median price indicates.'"
The Deseret News from Utah. "While states and regions around the country are reporting bursting housing bubbles and slowing job growth, Utah's economy remains strong, according to a report released Tuesday by the state's Department of Workforce Services."
"'It's not like we sprinted past Nevada and Arizona. It's like we stood still and watched them slip past us, going downward,' said the department's senior economist, Mark Knold. 'They're more vulnerable to the national problem that's going on right now, which is the housing bust.'"
"Utah didn't add much air to the current bubble, Knold said. Not much Utah money went into the speculative housing market."
"All but one of the 11 job categories measured by the department reported year-over growth. Construction led the way, adding 14,000 jobs, followed by the trade, transportation and utilities sector."
"'We're in a growth spurt. We're riding a high wave right now in the state of Utah,' he said. 'It's very difficult to see anything to be worried about on the horizon, at least the short-term, immediate horizon.'"
"New housing permits issued across Utah in this year's first quarter continued to tumble, indicating a housing slowdown could be around the corner. For the three months ended March 31, permits issued for new houses, condominiums and apartments in the state fell to 5,267, a 13 percent drop from the same quarter in 2006, according to a report."
"Many of the state's strongest housing areas showed double-digit declines. In Draper, housing permits in the first quarter were down 36 percent. Herriman issued 38 percent fewer permits than it did a year ago. South Jordan also showed a 38 percent drop. Lehi saw permits fall by 33 percent. Housing permits in Spanish Fork were down 23 percent, and in St. George, permits decreased 14 percent."
"Mark Knold, senior economist at the Utah Department of Workforce Services, said housing permits overall this year will be down compared to 2006, marking the second consecutive year of declining housing permits."
"'And I anticipate that '08 will be lower than '07,' Knold said. 'But I don't see the (first quarter) 13 percent drop as being alarming. We knew that was coming. The run-up that started in '03, '04 and '05, we knew that it was going to be high, and we also knew it was going to turn around and come off that peak and go back down.'"
"'From 1990 to 2000, construction employment grew by 200 percent,' Knold said. 'We went from 23,000 people employed (in construction) in January 1990 to 67,500 in January 2000. In January 2007, we project that number at 96,600.'"
"Clint Carter, a building official with Lehi, predicts the city will issue roughly 1,500 housing permits this year, about a 9 percent drop from 1,649 issued in 2006. Yet if the first quarter numbers are any indication, the decline could be more severe."
"'We've noticed a little bit of dropoff,' Carter said."