The Run's Over In California
The Union Tribune reports from California. "DataQuick expects to report today that the six-county Southern California region saw defaults rise nearly 159 percent last month to more than 9,200, compared with 3,562 in April 2006, and that foreclosures skyrocketed from 311 to more than 2,800 over the same period. San Diego's defaults rose from 554 to 1,346, and foreclosures increased from 85 to 525, April to April."
"(Consultant) Peter Dennehy said only about 4.6 percent of sales involve foreclosures, far less than in the recessionary 1990s and a trend he called 'something to watch' but still 'manageable.'"
"A rise in resale inventories may represent good news for buyers, Dennehy said. Many sellers have to sell and will lower prices to do so, when a year ago, many were simply testing the market to see if they could get a high price and would not negotiate if someone offered to pay much less."
"'That probably will keep pushing prices down this year and next,' he said."
"One factor on buyers' minds is gas prices, the speakers said. Imperial Valley expert Adam McAvee, said that market is 'struggling' from affordability and commuting issues to the point where the typical new subdivision is only selling 1.3 homes per month."
The North County Times. "The California Department of Real Estate is trying to bar a local broker from the industry, accusing him and his company of arranging inflated appraisals in order to pocket huge commissions."
"Houses that Stonewood Consulting Inc. brokered were typically sold for $50,000 to $100,000 more than nearby comparable houses, according to the real estate database. Managers at local real estate offices noticed the unusual transactions in early 2005 and several warned their agents to steer clear, said Gene Wunderlich, a director at the Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors."
"The more immediate issue is the rising number of foreclosures, Wunderlich said, a trend that he attributed to lower lending standards, a marked slowdown in real estate markets and unusual investment arrangements, such as Stonewood's, that have come to light in the last year."
"'It's kind of a three-way whammy,' Wunderlich said."
The Mercury News. "Mention 'short sale' in Silicon Valley in the past few years and people probably would have assumed you were talking about a technique for selling stocks. But it's a real estate term that's back in parlance in 2007."
"'It's the hottest topic in the industry,' said Rob Bates of Fidelity National Title."
"It's unclear just how many of the houses and condos on the market in Santa Clara County now are being offered by owners trying to do a short sale. Sometimes realty agents who are listing property for owners trying to do short sales make note of the situation in the 'remarks' portion of the listing."
"In a sample of 461 houses and condos listed for sale in Santa Clara County on the MLS early this month, 18 listings, or about 4 percent, contained some mention of short sale or a sale requiring lender approval, said real estate broker Richard Calhoun in San Jose."
"'Not all agents will disclose a short sale in the remarks,' Calhoun wrote in an e-mail, 'So I think that 4 percent is likely low.'"
"Edgar Meneses, a real estate agent who works for the non-profit Neighborhood Housing Services Silicon Valley, said earlier this month that of the six first-time home buyers he was assisting, five had made offers on houses or condos being sold in short sales."
The Press Enterprise. "Inland builders continue to struggle with a rising unsold inventory, despite lowering their prices and throwing in freebies such as swimming pools. Steve Johnson, a director in the Riverside office of consulting firm Metrostudy, said builders are still up against flagging consumer confidence."
"'They're having a tough time shaking off the apathy that's affecting the market,' Johnson said of builders."
"Johnson noted that as of the end of the first quarter, the Inland region's unsold new-home inventory stood at 6,545 properties, a supply of 7.3 months. That's 88 percent higher than the 3,473 properties, about 3.5 months of supply, that were unsold at the same point of 2005."
"The 1,375 new homes sold in the Riverside-San Bernardino county area in March marked a 51.7 percent drop from March 2007. Johnson said the trend likely means that new-home prices will be dropping long term, but the size of homes built will also be going down to meet market demand."
"Fred Bell, executive director of the California Building Industry Association's Desert Chapter, said there are no signs of a new-home buyers surge kicking in. 'I'm not optimistic that it's going to improve really soon,' Bell said. 'The residential side continues to be very slow, and that will probably (continue) into 2008.'"
"Patrick Duffy, managing director in the Costa Mesa office of Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, said after several months of builders offering similar types of buyer incentives, like pools and amenity upgrades, new-home developers are turning more to straight price reductions."
"'The ones who are serious about selling are lowering their prices,' Duffy said. 'Builders are getting really serious about moving that inventory off the books.'"
The Desert Sun. "Lennar Corp., the Florida-based builder of several housing communities throughout the Coachella Valley, is closing the administrative office division serving Palm Springs desert resort communities."
"'It's a challenging time for the home building industry,' said Jeff Roos, regional president of the Southwest Region for Lennar."
"Other Lennar offices affected by the consolidation include those located in San Diego, Orange and San Bernardino counties. CBIA director Fred Bell said this move is not surprising."
"'As the housing market slowed, they've been aggressively trimming their administrative overhead,' Bell said. 'Every one of the home builders is aggressively looking at managing their inventory,' Bell added, citing the projected inventory of roughly 10,000 new and existing properties on the market in the Coachella Valley."
"'How do I feel?' one worker bemoaned Thursday, as she headed into the attractive slate-studded building Lennar has leased at the corner of Cook Street and Country Club Drive in Palm Desert for several years. 'I’m not happy.'"
The Merced Sun Star. "The housing market isn't crashing. That's the good news local Realtors heard Thursday when state Department of Real Estate Commissioner Jeff Davi visited Merced."'
"'There's no bubble in California real estate,' Davi told a crowd of 140 at UC Merced's Lakireddy Auditorium. 'It's been a soft landing and a subtle downturn.'"
"Davi gave a half-hour talk that first recapped the 'euphoria' of the five-year period between 2000 and 2005, when California's real estate market saw huge growth. That upswing fueled speculation, contributed to the breakdown in subprime lending, and drove thousands of people to become real estate agents, Davi said."
"One in 53 adults in California now holds a real estate license, which is twice the number of attorneys in the state."
"Statewide home sales slumped 23 percent between 2005 and 2006, a 'very significant drop' that marked the beginning of the downturn, he said. 'The run's over, that's all right,' Davi said. 'We're transitioning from a seller's market to a buyer's market. We've been through this before in the '90s.'"
"Davi also touched on other consequences of the housing downturn. His agency has seen a dramatic increase in the number of enforcement cases it handles. People are less likely to file complaints when their home values are rapidly appreciating, he said."
"Recent press coverage of the real estate industry has been 'weighted toward the negative,' said Merced County Association of Realtors President Scott Oliver, and Merced is now in the process of returning to a 'normal market' after the boom years of 2004, 2005 and 2006."
"The real estate research firm DQNews listed Merced's median home price as $314,000 in April, down 16 percent from the April 2006 price of $375,000."