Tightening Credit Disrupts The Real Estate Food Chain
The Boston Globe reports from Massachusetts. "The meltdown in the subprime mortgage sector is making it harder for first-time and other home buyers with little down payment money to get even conventional loans, adding more troubles to a slumping real estate market. These are typically buyers who once easily got 90 to 100 percent financing for a home, but now either have trouble getting loans or are paying more for them."
"'It's a knee jerk reaction to what happened with the subprime market,' said Rosella Campion, loan officer in Boston."
"Ryan Mulvoy is shopping for a new condo, but may not have much money left over from the sale of his current Quincy one-bedroom unit after he pays off a few bills. He was able to buy that first condo with just 5 percent down; now, anticipating he might need 100 percent financing, his agent, Joe Clancy Jr. in Weymouth, said Mulvoy might have a harder time getting a loan."
"The Warren Group estimated that roughly 30 percent of Massachusetts home buyers last year bought houses with little or no down payment. 'A deferral of home purchases by even 10 percent' of buyers, said Warren chief executive Timothy Warren, 'would mean fewer sales and further pressure on prices.'"
From Bloomberg. "The U.S. housing slump has hit New York City's richest suburbs. The average price in Westport, Connecticut, fell 8.2 percent to $1.56 million in the first four months of 2007 from the same period last year, according to MLS data."
"The tightening of credit in response to rising subprime defaults has disrupted the real estate food chain, bringing the national housing slump to Manhattan's doorstep. Prices fell as much as 18.8 percent this year in 15 of the 24 areas in which data was collected."
"'People who may have bought their first home may not be able to do so now, and that stops some of the movement,' said Doug Werner, a broker in Darien, Connecticut. 'Whales eat plankton. If the plankton disappears, what will happen to the whales?'"
"First-time home buyers are more likely to be subprime borrowers. Every purchase of an existing house by a first-time buyer triggers four other sales in the housing market, said Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group in East Brunswick, New Jersey."
"'They are largely trade-up purchases,' Otteau said. 'The buyer of the $300,000 house enables the seller of that home to buy a $450,000 house, and up the line until you get to a luxury home. None of that can happen unless the first-time buyer makes the purchase.'"
"David Smith just sold his 11,000-square-foot Westport home on two acres for $5.9 million, about $600,000 less than originally listed. He said he took a loss."
"'It's a buyer's market now,' said Smith. 'There's so much to choose from, you don't get them to focus. Their attitude is, the longer I wait, the less I have to pay.'"
"The biggest price declines are along the Metro-North Railroad line in Westchester County, New York, just north of New York City. Prices fell in eight of the 11 areas in which data was collected."
"Larchmont and Mamaroneck experienced a drop of 18.8 percent to $1.08 million. In Armonk, prices declined 17.3 percent to $1.39 million. In Bronxville, the slide was 12.4 percent to $1.34 million."
"At the peak of the northern New Jersey real estate boom in 2005, the inventory was between one and three months, meaning that the ratio of buyers to sellers was about one to one, Otteau said. A year ago, inventory had swelled to 5.6 months of homes, and now it's 7.3 months."
"'Some sellers took their homes off the market,' Otteau said. 'That's made the picture look brighter than it actually may be.'"
The New Haven Register from Connecticut. "Single-family home sales in Connecticut sank nearly 9 percent in March compared with a year ago, The Warren Group reported Wednesday. The 2,740 homes sold in March marked an 8.6 percent decline from the 2,998 sold in March 2006. The median sales price also fell, dropping 2.8 percent, from $272,250 a year ago to $270,000 in March."
"'I was a little surprised,' said CEO Timothy Warren Jr. 'It just didn’t pick up as much as everybody wants it to.'"
"The peak spring home-buying season, which typically begins in March or April, seems delayed this year, said John Cuozzo, partner at Press/Cuozzo Realtors in Hamden. 'The uncertainty that was looming in the market in the fall and winter' is causing many would-(be)-buyers to 'drag their feet,' he said."
"Looking ahead, Warren said he hopes the state’s housing market will rebound as the year goes on, but for now, 'It’s looking like it’s not heading in the right direction.'"
The Morning Call from Pennsylvania. "Average Lehigh Valley home sales continued to fall and the amount of time it took to sell houses lengthened."
"It was the 11th consecutive month of falling home sales, compared year-over-year, according to statistics released this week by the Lehigh Valley Association of Realtors. April's results show a continuation of slowing trends that started last year after three years of a boom market."
"The high number of homes for sale is slowing the pace of transactions, and possibly depressing prices. New listings rose 25 percent last month to 1,713 units."
"'Our inventory is skyrocketing,' said Loren Keim, who owns Century 21 Keim Realty in Allentown. 'There are a lot of reasons for that. [Sellers] think this might be the end of the good market. The good market ended last spring.'"
"The market has been bolstered by strong demand from buyers moving to the Valley from more expensive towns in New York and New Jersey. Some real estate agents say the influx of New York and New Jersey buyers is slowing. 'What I have heard personally is, 'Connie, I can't take the drive. I won't have as much house but I won't have to get up at 4:30 in the morning,' said Connie Ulans, with A. R. Ulans Realty in Allentown."
"National builders have said they are facing a glut of unsold homes. At the conference Tuesday, an executive with the National Association of Home Builders said there are 1 million to 1.5 million vacant new homes. The official, senior staff member David Crowe, said the statistic is 'troubling.'"
"'Something's got to give. The economy can't sustain itself with this number of homes on the market,' he said."
"Chuck Hamilton, the local association's executive officer, said some of the national builders with subdivisions in the Lehigh Valley have had to offer incentives here. The local association does not publish statistics."
"Hamilton said the impact of changing market conditions has been significant, and 'almost all builders have noticed a slowdown in demand.'"
"Local real estate agents are beginning to see the impact of higher default rates among sub-prime loans. The rash of failing lenders has prevented some transactions from closing in the Lehigh Valley."
"Keim said at his firm's Allentown office, 18 sales fell through in February because the lenders involved had closed, or no longer offered the mortgages the clients had qualified for."