The Implications Of Rising Interest Rates
Readers suggested a topic around interest rates. "The biggest topic of the week has to be the massive jump of the yield on the 10-year. The last hope of the housing market was the dream that the Fed still had control of the situation and could lower interest rates. This would set everything right in the minds of fanatics such as David Lereah, Leslie Appleton-Young and Lawrence Yun."
"A 30-year fixed may soon be at 7%, still historically low but murder for this housing market. Their illusions seem to have disappeared in the haze of the desert."
"What other implications does the rising of the 10-year hold for the American economy and Americans in general?"
One reader said, "An economy swimming in debt can’t blossom while interest rates are rising."
Another pointed out, "I think the Plunge Protection boys are out of dough and answers…. this run up all Spring was classic 'pump and dump.'"
"(I) would want to have money in treasury bonds of most sorts, cash, some gold and silver and oil. Then pray for some deflation…some of these assets may go a bit down but not as much as stocks, housing, land, and will-of-the-wisp junk bonds/derivatives or any other Rube Goldberg, check-kiting finance paper."
"Raising interest rates will kill whatever is left of sub-prime and Alt-A craptacular real estate lending. Rates go to 7% and bye-bye any real estate recovery at these bubble prices. Prices must and will fall."
One had this question, "If Treasury bonds in the US go to 6.5% but the dollar drops 30% against the Yen, buyers of T-Bonds are caught holding the bag."
"From Bill Gross. (last year he felt that 10 year bonds would stay between 4 -5%, this years analysis)."
"'As a result, we’ve raised our forecast range for global interest rates, moving the range for 10-year U.S. Treasuries to 4.0-6.5% versus last year’s forecast range of 4.0-5.5%, for instance, which is sort of indicative of how we see the bond markets in general.'"
"'We expect the U.S. dollar to be weak going forward, for a number of reasons. And we think that commodity prices in general, based upon this strong global growth environment and the demand from the BRICs1 and the emerging market countries, will produce favorable results for commodities.'"
"'Those are our basic conclusions—not necessarily bond friendly but asset friendly in some ways, with the favored assets being emerging market currencies and commodities in terms of some of the more applicable asset categories. We also think that global stocks, especially those outside the United States, will benefit over this period of time….'"
"I’ll fade Mr. Buffett (short term), but not Mr. Gross."
The Chicago Tribune. "Reflecting a cascade of selling Treasury securities, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes leaped above the psychologically important 5 percent mark, to 5.1 percent, a dramatic half-point increase in just a month. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since July."
"Until a few days ago, the consensus on Wall Street was that the next move by the Federal Reserve would be to cut U.S. rates. That view has evaporated amid higher global rates and repeated assertions by Fed officials, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, that their biggest fear is inflation, which the Fed seeks to pre-empt by boosting short-term rates."
"'If the Fed isn't going to ease, then we better start worrying about them tightening,' said David Oser, senior VP for investments at ShoreBank. 'That's what's at the bottom of this.'"
The Contra Costa Times. "Investors' expectations of an interest rate cut, and home buyers' hopes for cheaper mortgages, seem to be disappearing. Some market watchers say the yield is likely to climb higher as bond prices weaken, making it even harder for consumers to finance home purchases and for companies to borrow money."
"'It's the massive correction that we have been waiting for,' said loan consultant Ed Jeffry of Peregrine Lending Corp. in Walnut Creek. 'You could even see rates go up another quarter of a percent by the end of summer.'"
"Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank, characterized the relatively high prices and low yields in the U.S. Treasury market in the past nine months as a bubble. 'Rates are too low,' he said, and he predicted the 10-year yield will lift to 5.75 percent."
"Not everyone believes yields will rise that high; RBS Greenwich Capital bond strategist David Ader, for one, predicts that the 10-year yield could possibly float to 5.25 percent, but it then would retreat."
"Still, any big upswings in the interim could squeeze Americans looking to buy a home or refinance."
"'Five percent is not in itself a big deal, but a move to 5.25 percent or 5.5 percent could cause some discomfort for people taking out a mortgage,' Ader said."
From Reuters. "Consumers are being turned down more often for mortgages as lenders tightened standards due to rising defaults and foreclosures. Now, barring much bigger home price declines, rising mortgage rates could also further crimp affordability."
"'It's clearly not a positive for the housing sector,' said economist Bill Cheney."
"Bond guru Bill Gross sees a more dire outcome. The manager of the world's biggest bond fund told CNBC Television on Friday that an increase in rates will decimate the housing market 'if they haven't already.'"