An End Of The Quarter Wrap And Predictions Thread
Readers want to hear your housing bubble predictions for the coming months and years. "It’d be neat to have an 'end of the quarter wrap' highlighting all of the major occurrences and stats for Q2."
"Or a predictions thread? Check this one out from the same time last year: 'What are your housing market predictions at the mid-year point of 2006? Call any market; local, regional or global. This thread will be forwarded through the holiday weekend.'"
Or this one from the first of this year. "How about predictions of what next year brings? 2007."
One noted, "The predictions from the (first) link were quite interesting: On balance, the housing-price related predictions were in the ballpark and the stock market/mortgage-rate/oil predictions were wide of the mark."
One said this, "Housing market predictions? Local market opinions have the most value IMO…"
Another looked at the timing of events. "I predict that the return to normalcy will take much longer than I would have predicted. Just like the bubble went on much longer than I would have predicted."
"It may take another year before we get the big leg down in nominal median prices, as sellers continue to hold out and investors are no longer willing to lend people money they cannot afford. Sales volume REALLY drops (still high despite the year-on-year decline given prices), new construction starts fall below 1 million next year (an actual low number, not like what we have now), but median sales price fails to crash until a year or more from now."
One pulled one up from last summer. "Pretty good prediction from GH last year: Comment by GH 2006-07-01 06:06:55."
"'Inventory will continue to rise and the buyer seller stand-off will continue while both sides dig in fro the rest of 2006. Areas which have already experienced extreme appreciation will continue to slowly deteriorate, while outlying areas will continue slow appreciation as the outer reaches of the shock waves propagate outward.'"
"'I would not expect meaningful downward price action until the coming wave of foreclosures and much anticipated workforce reductions associated with building and real estate begin to have an impact. This will be the BIG news for 2007 thru 2011 and when the storm abates I predict the middle class will be a whole lot smaller, the poor poorer and the rich richer. Property prices may well decline below the 40 year trend line as lenders swell their inventory of foreclosed properties and are forced to begin dumping en masse.'"
One reflected, "I was wrong about the stock market I thought it would be down and we would be in a recession by now. It appears the stock market has made a soft landing? The housing market is holding up better than I thought as well. The future? Home prices down again, stock market flat and interest rates down, dollar down."
One focused on the economic picture. "I think we’re already in a recession. There tends to be a lag time between the beginning of a recession, and the widespread acknowledgment of its existence. Don’t focus so much on the stock market, but on the retail numbers. Things aren’t looking too good out there, despite the decent job outlook."
Another stands by this call, ""I’ll stick with my prediction from last year...YOY housing prices, nationally, will be down 10-15% by Dec 2007. There will likely be some type of (failed) bailout attempt, which will stem the foreclosures temporarily. Recession by Dec 2007. Foreclosures rise into 2008 & national prices drop an additional 10-15% by late 2008."
"The credit markets will likely be volatile & I believe there will be periods when it looks like everything will collapse, then suddenly all will seem well as more money is injected into the system (from???). Each time the credit spigot gets turned back on, though, the loose periods will be shorter and shallower than before, IMHO. Very slowly, liquidity will dry up, but it will probably take years to totally unwind."
"The bottom arrives no sooner than 2010-2012, with an emphasis on 2012 (or later)."