Excuse-onomics And The Housing Bubble
Readers suggested a topic on analysts and the housing bubble. "One thing that interests me a lot about this bubble is the practice of 'excuse-onomics' in market analysts’/economists’ reports. Whereby 99 percent of their data point strongly to one conclusion (a housing bubble, a credit bubble, P/E ratios out of whack, etc etc), yet they grasp for and emphasize that one small piece of data that could possibly indicate otherwise."
"What this seems to indicate is analysts lodged deeply in the pocket of Wall St., but of course that is another weekend topic suggestion."
One wrote, "The problem is CYA. As a public economist, you get villified if you manipulate the markets, regardless of if you are right. Few economists would rant about the housing bubble in 2005 even if it was clear to the rest of us. Alan Greenspan himself could have called it a bubble and people would keep on buying houses, and once the music stopped, those without chairs would blame HIM for stopping the music, not general economic overbuilding."
"The housing bubble collapsed of it’s own weight, as was always the outcome, and now economists are just starting to talk about it."
Another said, "A recession looks likely and I hope that’s all it will be. I wanted the bubble to deflate or pop, so I could get a cheap house for cash. But I do not want a depression."
A reply, "You will be able to find that cheap house for cash in due time. I bought one in the Tampa Carrolwood Village area in 1991 that was forclosed during that downturn in RE for $85,000. It was built three years earlier and the people that lost it paid $142,900. It worked for me and it will work for you, just let this mess cycle through it’s course."
One shared this, "My dad has considered me a doom and gloomer for a while now. However, he has recently seen the light (I think). It seemed evident to me as we were driving around Lancaster, PA earlier this week. That’s an Amish area. I said, 'The Amish have the right skills and lifestyle to make it through a recession.'"
"Normally my dad would snap back something like, 'What are you talking about recession? There’s no way that will happen.' This time, however, he said, 'Yeah…they won’t skip a beat.' Acceptance."
One pointed to a recent report, "Inspired by this whipsaw of a Zandi report, in which he proceeds to tick off a bunch of reasons why the economy is near crisis, then up and predicts no recession because 'employment figures' will be good."
One agreed, "I don’t get this Zandi guy. One moment he seems to make sense and then comes a comment like the one about employment."
From the MarketWatch article, "The problems in the U.S. subprime mortgage market could spiral out of control into a global financial crisis, economist Mark Zandi said."
"With a 'high level of angst' in the financial markets about who will take the losses from more than $1 trillion in risky mortgages, we could be just one hedge-fund collapse away from a global liquidity crisis, said Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com."
"'Mounting mortgage delinquencies and defaults now pose the most serious threat to the global financial system and economy,' Zandi said in his report."
"'If there is a fault line in the global financial system, it runs through the U.S. housing and mortgage markets,' he said."
"Here are some highlights of his forecast, based on a study using anonymous data collected by consumer credit agency Equifax: Home prices will fall 10% from the peak nationally, more in the bubble regions in California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Washington, D.C."
"Home sales could bottom later this year, home construction could bottom early next year, and house prices could bottom late next year. It'll be 2010 before the housing market could be termed 'normal.'"
"About 17% of total mortgage debt is at risk, totaling about $2.5 trillion in subprime, Alt-A and jumbo debt. About $1.4 trillion is at serious risk of default. Investors will lose about $113 billion as $460 billion worth of mortgages default."
"As for the U.S. housing market, Zandi expects a lot more pain, but not a recession."
From CNN Money. "'The ultimate outcome of the decline in mortgage credit quality is not wholly predictable,' Moody's Economy.com said in a July 26 report. While there are efforts being made to forestall the surge in foreclosures, 'the downside risks outweigh the positives,' the report said."
"America's era of easy money is going out with a bang - and on a global scale. 'The fact is we live in a general equilibrium world,' said Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust. 'Everything affects everything else and [the U.S. housing slowdown] is spreading to other parts of the economy and the credit markets.'"
"One of the latest bursts of market anxiety came on Thursday with news that a second Australian hedge fund, this one partly owned by Dutch financial-services giant ABN Amro, has also has run into trouble because of its exposure to U.S. subprime mortgages."
"'This is a global problem,' said T.J. Marta, fixed-income strategist at RBC Capital Markets. 'Optimists say that because the markets are global we are spreading out the gain, but also spreading any losses.'"
"'Pessimists say that the issue will hit a psychological tipping point and because it is a global problem it will be felt broadly in many places,' he said."
"Central banks across the globe, but most crucially in the U.S., Japan and Europe, had cut interest rates to historic lows five years ago, in a bid to jumpstart their economies after the slump of 1990s equities bubble and years of deflation in Japan."
"Low rates encouraged borrowers of all stripes and created a surge in global liquidity, which first helped fuel spectacular gains in assets, not least of which was the U.S. housing market bubble."
"But rising interest rates across the globe in recent years have finally started to take their toll, economists believe. Previous campaigns to lift interest rates have typically led to financial debacles of one form of another."
"For now, markets on Wall Street are only beginning to price in some...worst-case scenarios. 'We have had global hedge funds, private equity and U.S. stocks driven higher by cheap credit,' Kasriel said, 'and all that is changing now.'"