The Mad Dash To Buy Houses Is Over
The Statesman reports from Oregon. "In a year's time, the mad dash to buy houses is over. The Mid-Willamette Valley's residential real estate market has cooled. The numbers show the area is not immune from the national housing slump. Sales have dropped 12 percent this year, according to June statistics from the Willamette Valley MLS. 'The market has been so hot over the last few years, at some point it had to cool off,' said Mike Erdman, executive VP of the Home Builders Association of Marion and Polk Counties."
"'A lot of people rushed into the market and bought, and that's an extraordinary event,' said Peter Rogers, the president of Coldwell Banker Mountain West Real Estate, of 2005 and 2006. Conditions today are similar to 2004, Rogers said, and it's a return to a 'good old-fashioned market.'"
"Booming sales had become almost routine for real estate agents and home builders. The area's real estate industry hasn't experienced a down year since 2000."
"Real estate industry observers say it's shifted from a seller's to a buyer's market. For June, about 6,325 houses were for sale in the Mid-Willamette Valley, or about 1,960 more than in June 2006."
"'The buyer has a big choice, and it's taking a bit longer to get sales,' said Gladys Blum, a real estate agent in Salem. 'Last year, they could toss out a sign and it would sell.'"
"Dave Glocar, a Salem-area builder with three decades in the business, doesn't think the market has hit bottom. His Dave Glocar Custom Homes began scaling-back its projects a couple years ago. 'Most people thought I was a little premature, and maybe I was, but Oregon tends to go into things later and come out later,' Glocar said."
"The Portland metropolitan area is seeing a similar softening of the real estate market. Closed sales for June were down by more than 18 percent from a year ago, according to the RMLS."
"Fewer speculators buying houses for investments, and lenders requiring more stringent standards for 'subprime' borrowers, often are blamed for the real estate slump."
The Oregonian. "The downturn in the housing market that roiled Wall Street this week is beginning to take a toll on the Oregon economy. The state's construction business and its timber industry, still a major supplier of lumber for homes nationwide, are starting to suffer."
"Across the state, construction of new subdivisions and condos has dropped sharply. Oregon, late to the national runup in housing prices, can plan on continued fallout from the national real estate bust."
"'At this point, the housing slump continues, and it seems there's no end in sight,' said Dae Baek, acting state economist."
"The slowdown has builders idling their back hoes until demand increases. New housing construction in 2006 dropped 11 percent in Oregon from the previous year. Lumber production in mills across the West is down 16 percent this year for softwoods, which include 2-by-4s used in new homes. And in June, the state's wood-products industry lost 2,900 jobs compared with a year earlier."
"Weyerhaeuser's first-quarter sales declined 14 percent from the same quarter the prior year and softwood lumber sales slumped 27 percent. In response, Weyerhaeuser has cut back operations at 70 percent of its operations in the Northwest and virtually all of its wood-products plants, which include mills in Lebanon, Warrenton and Dallas. Other mills are temporarily shutting down."
"'Our anticipation is housing will remain weak throughout the year,' said Butch Bernhardt, director of information services for Western Wood Products Association, an industry group."
"The number of brokers and bankers registered with Oregon's Department of Consumer and Business Services peaked at more than 14,000 in 2005. That figure fell to about 11,000 by June, but most of those who left were out-of-state brokers who were registered to do business in Oregon."
"Realtors report a recent shift to a buyers market. Billy Grippo, a real estate broker who specializes in Northeast Portland, said buyers now win more concessions from sellers. Homes tend to stay on the market longer, but Grippo says buyers still get close to their asking prices."
"Baek, the state economist, says the housing market will fall further before it rises again. He expects housing to bottom out in late 2007 before making a rebound in mid-2008. 'All things combined, it's a terrible mess in housing,' Baek said."
"But he added: 'We're in a better position to get out of this housing slump than the nation as a whole.'"
The Seattle Times from Washington. "Shirley Rhodes prepared for the worst in April when she began her search for a three-bedroom home. But less than one month into her search Rhodes found a perfect match in Buckley, Pierce County, for $525,000 and she found half-a-dozen King County properties in her price range that fit her criteria."
"In Southeast King County, stories like Rhodes' are becoming more common. As in much of the county, slower home sales have given buyers like Rhodes an edge."
"Pending sales...were down 24 percent in June compared with the same month last year, the Northwest MLS reported earlier this month. Active listings of single-family homes increased, too, from 960 last year to 1,005 this year."
"Rhodes compared her experience to being a kid in a candy store. 'You think, there's got to be something better around the corner,' she said."
"Here's where Rhodes experiences the downside of such a housing market: Five buyers have viewed the four-bedroom rambler she put on the market in April. She's asking $449,000, for a 2,500-square-foot rambler on 5.5 acres in the Orting Valley in Pierce County."
"Although she's found several homes she'd like to buy, she needs to sell hers. 'I've seen homes I'd like to take a leap on, but mine isn't moving,' Rhodes said."
"If her property doesn't sell before the holiday season, Rhodes said she'll begin her search again next spring. 'I'm in no great hurry,' Rhodes said. 'Being a buyer is really nice, but it's the selling end that's tough.'"
The Seattle PI from Washington. "When Seattle debated allowing taller downtown skyscrapers last year, some warned new costs that the city imposed for affordable housing could kill the building boom. So far, given the area's strong real estate market, those dire predictions haven't proved true."
"Some planned high-rises may be scrapped if construction costs continue to soar and the market softens. But city officials and several downtown observers say the new requirements don't appear to have undermined projects so far."
"'If it doesn't make sense, people won't build, and people are building downtown,' said Ryan Bosa, president of Embassy Development Washington Inc., which is developing Insignia, which includes two 40-story condominium towers on Sixth Avenue."
"'If people are actually going for it, they see a market there. That's what we're banking on. Of course, in three years, I could be calling you from a cardboard box and singing a different tune,' Bosa said."
"'We use market research as much as possible, but at some point one is making a prediction for where the market will be,' said Adrienne Quinn, director of the Seattle Office of Housing. 'In Seattle, we've been fortunate that the market is strong. Had the market turned the same way as it has in Miami or other parts of the country, it may have proved to be a disadvantage.'"