Somewhat Of A Fear Of Buying At A Peak
The Mountain Express reports from Idaho. "You don't need to be a real estate guru to realize the housing market in the Wood River Valley is in the midst of some kind (of a) predicament. A short walk through Ketchum will include mountain vistas, warm weather and a propagation of 'For Sale' signs that can leave a prospective homebuyer feeling like a kid in a candy store—albeit, an expensive candy store."
"Anyone who's ever taken Economics 101 can extrapolate the disparity between supply and demand that will result from this trend of price stagnation. However, as prices begin to drop in accordance with surplus inventory, the $64,000 question remains: Will prices continue to dip, or will buyers finally decide that the time is right?"
"'There are still people thinking their house is worth what it was two years ago and not facing reality,' said Rick Green, VP of Resort Real Estate at Zions Bank."
"Statistics provided by Nicole Buckwalter, president of the Sawtooth Board of Realtors, show that while the total number of sales in this 'resort area' are down by approximately 30 percent, compared to the same time period last year."
"Green said he wasn't sure if this was the bottom or if there could be another slow season next year. 'This isn't a doomsday thing,' Green said. 'Real estate here was so good for so long that people who got into the market in the last five to 10 years haven't seen a downturn before.'"
"In the mid-valley, where both sales and price have increased, those in the real estate industry agree that it's a buyer's market. 'This is a mountain town that's not being overrun with growth,' said Dan Gorham, a broker based in Ketchum. 'There are winners and losers in this, and for buyers, there's a lot of inventory here.'"
"Home sales in Hailey have decreased as well, with volume down 26 percent this year to date. However, free-market forces seem to be working smoothly, with the median price dropping from $519,900 in 2006 to $427,000, according to the Sawtooth Board's latest statistics."
"With the median price down just more than $35,000, 19 units have sold in Bellevue, compared to 11 at the same time in 2006. In Bellevue, the City Council has three large development annexations in front of it that would add more than 1,000 units if all were approved."
"Using year-to-year changes of address on tax returns, the IRS tracked migration data from county to county, estimating an increase of 580 full-time residents in Blaine County between 2000 and 2005."
"'Even this doesn't explain why developers are putting forth projects when there isn't the demand,' Gorham said."
From Local News 8 in Idaho. "Foreclosures are skyrocketing across the country. But, while the rest of the country struggles to pay mortgages, Idahoans are finding it's still a buyer's and seller's market."
"Here in eastern Idaho, it's a completely different story. 'We've escaped the market nationwide. We've just been on an upward trend since 2000, or even before that,' said Mike Stumper, First Horizon Loan Branch Manager."
"Stumper says Idaho is still in a period of growth with people moving in from other states like California, Nevada and Arizona, 'We've been on the Internet as one of the top two places in the country to live, so people are really just selling their homes, taking their equity, moving to a better lifestyle here in Idaho.'"
"Stumper also says eventually, Idaho will face the same reality the rest of the country is dealing with right now. 'The market goes up and it goes down. There are corrections all the time. Eventually, it'll probably slow down here,' he said."
The News Tribune from Washington. "Building permits for 1,550 new residential units in Ballard have been issued in the past 18 months by Seattle's Department of Planning and Development, and there's more to come. Much of that development has been in the form of condominiums and town homes."
"According to Gunnar Hadley, a realtor with Ballard Windermere, 60 percent of everything sold here for the first five months of the year were condominiums and town homes. Hadley, who specializes in condo sales, called that an 'impressive' statistic."
"'That's truly crazy,' he said. 'There's clearly a massive demand here.'"
"Homeowners will continue to flock here, predicted Lauren Martin, a developers' representative for The Northlake Group, a company that's converting more than 100 Ballard apartments into condominiums. The units range in price from $249,900 to $899,900."
"'Ballard is just hot - it's one of the hottest,' Martin said. 'It has such a unique feel.'"
"According to Dupre and Scott Apartment Advisors, there have been 242 apartment-to-condo conversions in Ballard from January 2005 to May 2007. John Fox of (a) housing advocacy group said the city has lost 4,700 rentals to conversion since 2005."
"The city's rental vacancy rate is down to the lowest it's been in several years, about 2 percent, but Martin said eventually it's bound to 'level out.' She predicts the conversion trend will continue for another 18 to 24 months until the thousands of new condos already under way are built."
"At that point, the condo supply should start to satisfy demand and developers will start building apartments instead of condos, she said."
"But Nichole Poletti, property manager for Ballard Realty, said that construction and land costs have escalated to the point that it's no longer financially feasible to build apartments in Seattle."
"Based on a recent seminar she attended, developers would have to charge about $3 a square foot in rent to make a profit on new construction. That means a 650 square foot unit would rent for around $1,950 a month, while an average older unit that size in Ballard now rents for $790."
The Seattle PI from Washington. "Seattle-area home values are no longer ballooning like they were a year ago, when annual appreciation was hovering above 17 percent. May's 9 percent year-over-year growth rate is the lowest since April 2004, according to Standard and Poor's figures."
"More homes are available for sale than there were a year ago, although much of that bump comes from new condominiums and townhouses, said broker Mike Skahen."
"Single-family homes are still in shorter supply, he said, particularly those that are priced under $500,000. 'People are looking for that like crazy,' he said. 'Young couples still like to have single-family homes and there's just nothing out there in the close-in neighborhoods.'"
"At the same time, the greater inventory has allowed buyers to be pickier, he said. And those who are betting that home prices will continue to level off are behaving more cautiously. 'There's somewhat of a fear of buying at a peak,' he said."
"'Seattle and Portland for the last several months have been islands of relative calm and success,' said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee for Standard & Poor's. 'But it's very difficult to say whether Seattle has completely escaped any downturn or whether it's just been delayed.'"
"Moss blankets the house's roof. The siding is rotting off. And mold has spread through the interior. But the home's condition is 'average,' according to an appraisal."
"It's one clear example of how many appraisers hide problems and affirm inflated prices willingly or under pressure from the mortgage brokers and bankers who give them business, calling into question whether home buyers are getting what they pay for."
"'We're pressured to hit the value every time, every single sale,' said appraiser Richard Hagar."
"It's a problem that is more common as buyers vie to outbid each other in recent go-go markets such as Seattle's. And increasingly buyers may find in coming months that they paid too much, as slowing appreciation and rising mortgage interest rates force them to sell at a loss."
"'I think we'll see it come to a head here in the next year or so,' said Ralph Birkedahl, manager of the state's appraisal program. 'We may see more foreclosures than we're seeing now.'"
"When banks used to issue, then hold onto, mortgages, appraisers protected the lenders, while reassuring buyers they weren't overpaying. But now, buyers often use mortgage brokers, who work with a variety of lenders, and banks often sell off mortgages."
"That means mortgage originators hiring appraisers have a greater interest in closing a deal than making sure the buyer isn't overpaying, said Hagar."
"'To a degree, you as a consumer are trusting that the appraiser will somewhat confirm your thought process,' said Hagar, who helped write state mortgage laws."
"Most appraisal orders came from banks until the mid-1990s, he said. 'By 1995, it was 95 percent from mortgage brokers, and that's when this pressure started to come on massively.'"
"Mortgage brokers pulled their business and even refused to pay if they didn't like appraisals, Hagar said. He said this cost him 80 percent of his business."
"Complaints from appraisers picked up with the hot home market in recent years, Birkedahl said. 'We started hearing more and more about lender pressure and how they wanted appraisers to hit the value.'"
"In his class, Hagar hands out examples of improper appraisal solicitations: 'Most comps have been in the $350K range, but we need the appraised value at $380K'; 'Please push value to $925,000. Thank you'; 'Wants value at $310,000 -- need aggressive appraiser!'; 'Other appraisers told me 133-134 (thousand dollars) is safe. ... If you can guarantee me 145 I will set up appraisal tomorrow.'"
"Many have preprinted field names like 'value needed' or 'suggested value' and include statements such as: 'If preliminary research shows that value is not there please DO NOT do appraisal and contact the agent.'"
"It's all illegal, said Hagar, adding that he's been asked to change descriptions of houses, and remove or even alter pictures showing unflattering conditions."
"It isn't fair to blame bad appraisals solely on loan originators, said Adam Stein, president of American Brokerage in Auburn. 'If they tell you to rob a bank, are you going to do it?' he asked. 'At some point an appraiser has to take responsibility for doing an overvalued appraisal.'"
"'Appraisers have given up on filing complaints against other appraisers due to the (Washington State Department of Licensing's) unwillingness or inability to issue sanctions for criminal actions,' Appraisers' Coalition of Washington President Jim Irish wrote."
"Following up on an earlier law requiring mortgage brokers to be licensed, the state started requiring licenses this year for all loan originators, although it is allowing them to continue working while applications are pending."
"Based on experiences in other states, Hagar expects 10 percent of originators will turn out to be convicted felons and half of those that remain will fail the test. 'One, it'll filter out the scum,' he said. 'Two, it'll filter out the stupid.'"