Supply Is Running Away From Demand
The Orlando Sentinel reports from Florida. "Room 350 of the Orange County Courthouse once buzzed with people trying to outbid one another for foreclosed homes so they could turn around and make a sale for a sizable and nearly instantaneous return on their investment. On Tuesday morning...more than a dozen potential investors showed up at the courthouse for the daily auction. All of them left empty-handed."
"The homes up for auction are so over-leveraged that it doesn't make financial sense for anyone but the lending bank to take them. The homeowners who were forced into foreclosure owe more on the homes than the property is worth in today's sinking market."
"'This is the beginning of a pretty bad 12 to 24 months,' said Kraig Braeuning of Bay Hill Financial Group, who attended Tuesday's auction. 'It's going to be pretty brutal.'"
"It's been that way for the past three months, said deputy clerk of court and auctioneer Jim Moxley. And the volume of properties up for auction has nearly tripled, he said. 'When I first started [two years ago]...there was competitive bidding,' he said. 'That's come to a halt."
"'I don't want to say things are bright because anybody out there living in the real estate market will throw bricks at me if I do,' said University of Florida economist David Denslow. 'This will be a year to a year and a half to work itself out.'"
The Palm Beach Post from Florida. "In Palm Beach County, 1,142 homeowners lost their bid for the American dream - or their investment flip - compared with 370 foreclosures in the same month a year ago, the Palm Beach County clerk's office said Tuesday."
"It was worse in St. Lucie County, where a total of 429 homeowners got foreclosure notices last month, nearly five times as many in July of 2006, according to the clerk's office."
"The foreclosure crisis also is being felt in the once-robust Treasure Coast housing markets. In St. Lucie County, the sound of hammers was the constant price of living in this part of paradise during the boom years."
"The 429 homeowners in St. Lucie County who slid into foreclosure in July translate to a startling 377 percent increase over last July, when the 90 homeowners faced this fate. 'We're swamped,' said Angela Roselli, who works in the St. Lucie County clerk's office. 'I'm surprised there are still any people living in this county.'"
The News Journal from Florida. "One of the most ambitious real estate developments in the history of Santa Rosa County has been put on hold because of money problems. Work has stopped at the massive Jubilee development in Pace, and more than $3.8 million in liens has been filed against the project developer."
"Sandy McCranie, president of the Santa Rosa County Board of Realtors, said she's not surprised by Jubilee's setback."
"'It's a buyer's market, and the market is saturated with houses right now,' McCranie said. 'For someone to go in and build a big project like that, it would take years for them to sell out. We all kind of suspected that this was going to happen.'"
The Sun News from South Carolina. "Home prices on the Grand Strand are now showing declines for the first time, according to July sales statistics from the MLS."
"The price declines signal to Rod Smith, director of general brokerage at Coldwell Banker Chicora, that what he's seeing in the market is having an effect. Sellers are finally getting the message that they have to cut prices to sell."
"Sales compared to last year have continued to plummet, with home sales dropping 35 percent in July and condo sales dropping 29 percent."
"The good news is that stability in the market wouldn't happen until this price correction showed up, said Tom Maeser, president of the Fortune Academy of Real Estate."
"Condo prices did not show year-over-year drops in July, but Maeser says those numbers are skewed by preconstruction condos, sold at 2005 prices, that are closing now. Plus, more higher-end condos are being added to the mix, so the overall prices do not give an accurate sense of appreciation."
"'If I were to go into [condo] communities and look at prices, I'm pretty positive we'd see a decrease [in price],' Maeser said."
The Daily Report from Georgia. "The opening sentence of Haddow & Co.’s mid-year 2007 condominium market overview sends a blunt warning about Atlanta’s Intown market: It’s clearly entered the danger zone."
"'[We’re] definitely trying to send a message and want people to try to pay attention to what’s going on,' said David Haddow, president of Haddow & Co., a real estate consulting firm. He said 'supply is running away from demand.'"
"At a time when the pace of development needs to slow, a record 3,050 units in 35 projects were started in the first half of this year, according to the report. This comes at a time when sales volume has decreased considerably and inventory continues to build."
"In the current development cycle, which began in 1997, about 409 projects with a total of 32,454 units have been completed or started. Of this, 137 projects with a total of 13,366 units still have unsold units. Only 44.5 percent, or 5,949, of the active condos have been sold or are under contract, the report states."
"During mid-year 2006, the ratio of unsold units to annual unit sales was 1.37, or 5,457 to 3,981. As of mid-year 2007, the ratio was 3.31, or 7,417 unsold units to 2,239 annual unit sales."
"Roger C. Tutterow, an economics professor at Mercer University, said...over the next couple of years, inventory will remain elevated, but 'anyone that’s willing to take a longer term perspective of this should be in good shape provided that we don’t continue to bring as much product forward.'"
"Tutterow said the continued migration Intown will help to absorb the existing condo supply. 'The migration Intown is real. After decades of talking about people moving back Intown, it’s actually coming true,' Tutterow said."
The Community Press from Kentucky. "Despite constant warnings from township officials, many Sycamore residents continue to leave their properties in a state of disrepair. Zoning Administrator Greg Bickford said nuisance properties have increased recently, leading to more citations and fines by township trustees."
"'It's on the rise and it's only getting worse,' he said."
"Bickford said reasons for the rise in nuisance properties are likely just that people don't take care of their homes, are living somewhere they can't afford or that a home has been foreclosed and left to rot."
"Sycamore Township Planning and Zoning Inspector Paul Kremer noted the recent number of foreclosures in particular have been 'through the roof.'"
The News Sentinel from Tennessee. "Times are good if you’re buying a house in Knoxville, unless you have to sell one first, of course."
"That’s the impression one gets after crunching numbers and talking to local real estate gurus. While East Tennessee has largely avoided the all-out slump of housing markets like Florida and Michigan, there’s no doubt that the national slow-down is starting to pinch sellers in Big Orange Country."
"'What I’m finding is there’s a lot of houses on the market right now, so it’s a buyer’s paradise,' said Brenda Albert, of Rocky Top Realty. 'And they’re being more deliberate and more selective because they do have so much to choose from.'"
"For evidence of the trend, look no further than the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors second-quarter report, which found home and condo sales in a 32-county region were down nearly 14 percent compared to the same period a year ago."
"And that’s not the only harbinger. The average market time for homes sold in June was 90 days, the largest June number in the nine years of data on the association’s Web site."
"And for readers who take comfort in knowing that others are worse off, consider the numbers out of Florida, where home sales were down 30 percent and median prices were down 5 percent in June."
"That’s not necessarily good news for Tennessee, since many of the 'half-backs' looking to skedaddle out of Florida may first have to sell their Sunshine State home."
"Existing homes aren’t the only ones being hit. Victor Jernigan, president of Blue Ribbon Homes, said his company has seen traffic drop 'precipitously' in the last 60 days because people are afraid the market is still going down, although he said that fear is misplaced."
"'We are seeing slower sales in every price range,' said Jernigan. 'It’s not just bigger homes or smaller homes. It’s in every price range because of credit standards.'"