The Gold Rush Market Is Over
The Billings Gazette reports from Montana. "Chuck Pointer has been burned once and hopes he doesn't get burned again. Pointer moved to Billings from Boston more than a year ago. With the East Coast market already in a tailspin, he had missed his window of opportunity for selling his property there. 'If I had sold that (Boston) house a year before, it would have sold in the first week for $30,000 more than I'd get now,' he said."
"Meanwhile, he started looking at places in Boise. Then, in late July, Pointer noticed asking prices in Boise beginning to falter. A house listed for $299,000 two months ago was recently reduced to $269,000, he said."
"But Pointer wasn't biting. His Billings home still hasn't sold. After a couple of offers that didn't pan out, he's dropped his asking price by $10,000. 'At what point do you just say 'What's it going to take to sell the house?' he said. 'I wish they could come to me with that answer.'"
"With the national housing market in a dive that threatens to drag the economy down with it, the Billings market seems to be chugging along nicely, even if it's at a slower pace."
"'It's more of a normal market,' said broker Laura Odegaard. 'The past five years haven't seen the normal market of good times and bad times. Everything was good.'"
"Several local real estate agents point to a pause last fall when Billings-area buyers turned cautious. 'People were nervous,' said Rod Wilson, the president of the Billings Association of Realtors. 'All of the sudden there's a spin out there.'"
"Billings, like some of the hotter markets, has witnessed an uptick in foreclosures. Until recently, said Wayne Nelson, president of Stockman Bank's Heights office, foreclosures were virtually nonexistent. 'It was hard to make a bad loan, things were cruising along so good,' he said."
The Idaho Statesman. "Unconventional loans designed to give people a shot at home ownership appear to be coming back to haunt some Idahoans, industry experts say. The number of Idaho homes in foreclosure during the first half of 2007 rose 21 percent to 1,418, compared with 1,174 during the same period a year ago."
"The number of filings against those properties rose 91 percent from a year ago, according to RealtyTrac."
"One local attorney said that some foreclosures were the result of what is referred to as 'flippers.' 'Now that the gold rush market we were experiencing is over, these people are falling on their bottoms,' said Boise attorney Holger Uhl."
The Olympian from Washington. "Nate and Lee Szczublewski of Olympia experienced firsthand the rapidly changing requirements of qualifying for a home loan when they bought their first house in May. The Szczublewskis, who have good credit, first qualified for a mortgage that didn’t require a down payment, said real estate agent Ted Leland."
"But that didn’t last long, he said. Suddenly, the Szczublewskis needed to come up with a down payment of five percent, he said. 'Another week and they would’ve had to put 10 percent down,' Leland said."
"Vaughn Marston, owner of Versata Home Loans of Lacey, said he has never seen changes this dramatic in the mortgage business. 'It has been years since we worked this hard,' Marston said. This year business is expected to be down about 50 percent, he said. 'My hunch is that we may not have seen the worst of it yet,' said Marston."
"To make other home loans work, it might simply mean good credit, combined with a large down payment, said senior loan officer Randy Luke of Olympia. 'If you get too far outside those parameters, it may not work,' Luke said."
The Winnipeg Sun from Canada. "It has smashed records, defied expectations and baffled buyers. But experts say Winnipeg's sizzling housing market won't cool off any time soon."
"Wes Schollenberg, president of the Winnipeg Realtors Association, said...the association looks set to reach a record annual sales total of $2 billion for 2007. 'We're shooting for $2 billion and we don't expect any drop-off,' said Schollenberg."
"Gary Bachman of Century 21 Canada agreed the hot market has defied tradition. 'It's hard to imagine but every month gets better,' said Bachman. 'This is now the seventh year and in the past housing would go through cycles every five years. A house is now a good, solid investment.'"
The Edmonton Journal from Canada. "Flattening prices and a record inventory of unsold homes are giving new power to buyers in Edmonton's changing housing market. 'The advantage has definitely moved from the seller to the buyer,' Richard Goatcher, senior analyst at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., said Tuesday."
"The relative stability, after prices rose 46 per cent in the previous 12 months, reflects a dramatic reversal of supply and demand."
"July saw 4,463 new listings and only 1,565 sales -- the lowest July sales in five years. Inventory of unsold homes soared to a record of 8,183 units, more than four times the 1,856 unsold units in July 2006."
"The supply of resale homes is swollen by sellers moving to new homes, Goatcher said. Supply also may be bloated by speculators who are trying to flip for quick profits, and by longer-term investors whose rental incomes are relatively low compared to housing prices."
"Outside of MLS, ComFree reported Tuesday an inventory of 2,696 homes listed for sale by owner, compared to 277 sales in July."
"ComFree presidents Travis and Erin Holowach reported 'unnecessary panic' among would-be sellers. 'Ultimately, Edmonton home sellers will be successful but they do need to be a bit more patient in the current market,' they said."
The Anchorage Daily News from Alaska. "Two years ago, at the height of the building boom in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Rex Turner launched a sprawling housing development just outside Wasilla."
"Today, The Ranch occupies the center of a real estate slump. Turner targeted the market for homes priced from $240,000 to $450,000, now the slowest segment of the Mat-Su residential market. Instead of hundreds of homes, there are just three dozen, with a dozen more under way. Stop signs and fire hydrants rise from empty lots and dirt roads."
"In June 2005, Turner marketing director Gary Gearhart said the developer hoped to start work that summer on 108 homes, with another 84 under way by early 2006."
"'Obviously, that's not happened,' said Gearhart. 'It just slowed down. There was so much inventory came on the market.'"
"Gearhart blamed the slowdown on a glut of new construction. But he also cited an inventory of existing homes that flooded the market two years ago, when homeowners took advantage of low interest rates and skyrocketing home values to 'make a ton of money' on resale."
"Private appraisers have certainly seen home prices decline in the last year, said Appraiser Pat Check in Wasilla. Check recently reviewed a home the borough assessed last year at $240,000, an amount she couldn't justify today as an asking price. Usually, assessed value falls at or below appraised values."
"'We're all seeing sales where the price is below the assessment,' Check said. 'That's scary.'"
"One Realtor described homes over $225,000 as 'death' in the current market, but others said that $250,000 was a better cutoff and 'death' was a bit strong. 'There's a lot of them on the market and not so many buyers up in those price ranges,' said Russell Joyce, president of the Valley Board of Realtors."
"The health of the Anchorage real estate market is on the mind of many, with some feeling it is a buyer's market. This opinion seems heavily influenced by national news, which overshadows our local perspective."
"Is Anchorage following the national trend, or do local issues create a different outlook for our real estate market?"
"Nationally, many real estate markets began to experience extreme double-digit appreciation over the next five years. As the frenzy fed on itself, 'flipping' and subprime loans artificially inflated the market. National news currently makes you feel that most of the United States is in the middle of a massive correction. It is not."
"Once again Anchorage is counter to many other states, as shown by modest increases in the average sales price from $233,496 in 2003 to $259,531 in 2004, then $291,013 in 2005 and $315,156 in 2006 to $331,137 as of June this year."
"Between 2001 and 2005, increasing appreciation coupled with low selection and low rates stimulated multiple offers. Unfortunately, this is what sellers in the Anchorage real estate market grew accustomed to as normal."
"Last summer, this changed nationally and affected us locally. Nationally, the bubble began to burst in overinflated markets. Locally, it caused some hesitation in our real estate marketplace."
"So what do we do now? If you don't have to sell now, don't. If you do have to sell, realize that it will take more work to sell quickly. First, price it right. The days of an overstimulated market are gone. You can no longer price your property high and wait for the market to catch up to your value."
"If you are a buyer, now is a great time to buy...If you make a low offer, understand that you may help a competing buyer look even better to the sellers. While it is not a buyer's market, it is a good time to buy. It is a lot like buying produce in Anchorage right now: The prices are not cheap, but you'll sure love the choices."