The East Valley Tribune reports from Arizona. "Elliott Pollack, president of Scottsdale-based Elliott D. Pollack & Co., said the economy should avoid a recession, but the slow pace of growth may make it feel like a recession. 'The economy is no longer running on eight cylinders but on three or four cylinders,' he said. 'So the economy will still be driving forward, but...it will be a sub-prime year.'"

"Potential new residents will have a harder time selling their homes in California or the Midwest, he said. The result is the housing market will remain weak for several years, he said. 'This will take a while to resolve,' he said of the housing slump. 'The next few years could be ugly.'"

"(Analyst) R.L. Brown said a lack of consumer confidence is the biggest obstacle to a recovery in the housing market. 'When a consumer has no confidence in a market, he doesn’t buy,' Brown said. 'He sits on his hands because no one wants to appear stupid in making a purchase decision.'"

"Brown said the Valley has a 15-month supply of new, resale and foreclosed houses that are available for buyers, even if there were no new construction. Housing is 'dramatically' overpriced for such a large inventory, he said."

"'Those of us in the industry need to recognize we are living in today’s marketplace,' he said. 'We must accept the market as it is.'"

The Arizona Republic. "'How do I define a full recovery?' Pollack asked a packed ballroom at the Arizona Biltmore. 'Supply and demand is back to normal. We've absorbed that excess supply (of housing stock).'"

"Pollack estimated that an excess inventory of at least 40,000 homes exists in the Valley."

"Caught in the midst of the housing market turmoil, real estate agent Tina Eacret held out as long as she could — using up her entire savings before deciding to go part time in December."

"Eacret had lost roughly half of her database of 500 contacts to the new agents who flooded the Valley market in recent years, trying to capitalize on the boom. Even her most loyal clients opted to use friends and relatives who had gotten their licenses or obtained a license themselves."

"'I almost felt like I had failed, but I had to realize that it wasn’t just me,' Eacret said. 'Everybody’s going through it right now.'"

"Many of the real estate agents who jumped in during the housing frenzy are now out of a job, said Patti Crawford, director of Intero Real Estate’s foreclosure division in Mesa. Some didn’t hold on to the money they made at the height of the market, Crawford said."

"'I’m seeing a lot of real estate agents with their houses in foreclosure,' she said."

"But despite the exodus of some agents, hundreds of newcomers have streamed into the industry in recent months."

"As a rising number of distressed borrowers falls into foreclosure, lenders are increasingly being forced to take back properties, which are typically then bought up by investors."

"But with so many houses hitting the market after unsuccessful foreclosure auctions and lenders eager to clear the properties off of their books, savvy home buyers now have more chances to snap up houses at hefty discounts."

"Patti Crawford, who runs a foreclosure division for Intero Real Estate in Mesa, said the buyers she works with are split fairly evenly between homeowners and investors. Her job is to market repossessed properties for lenders."

"'Regular homeowners want a good deal right now because they have been burned paying too much for their property in the past couple years,' Crawford said."

"An auction marketing firm will host a massive auction in Mesa next month with nearly 100 houses up for sale. Bids for the homes, some of which were previously valued at more than $300,000, will start as low as $89,000, according to Real Estate Disposition Corp."

"Set for Oct. 14, the auction will include 44 Casa Grande and 53 city of Maricopa properties. The homes run as large as four bedrooms, three baths and have been previously valued up to nearly $355,000."

The Sierra Vista Herald from Arizona. "In fiscal year 2007, the city issued 159 residential construction permits, a significant drop when compared with 537 the year before, according to Sierra Vista’s Community Development Department."

"Robert Carreira, the center’s director, said that since the beginning of the city’s fiscal year 2008 on July 1 through the end of August, construction permits are down about 75 percent in Sierra Vista, in contrast with a slightly lower decline in Cochise County and a statewide decline closer to 50 percent."

"'I think what we’re seeing is a reflection of that now, and I think Sierra Vista’s drop in new construction in the first nine months of this calendar year dropped a little bit more than what we’ve seen in other areas,' Carreira said. 'I think that’s because we saw a bigger boom than in other areas.'"

"From his academic perspective, Carreira commented about the relevance and potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s lowering of interest rates by half a percentage point Tuesday."

"Concerns are that the rate cuts will cause inflation and that it interferes with long-term market adjustment that should be allowed to run its course to correct the aftermath of 'easy money policies' of lowered borrowing standards that existed from 2003 through 2005, he said."

"Carreira warned the Fed is merely prolonging or expanding the crisis by 'pushing the day of reckoning further into the future,' or 'by encouraging more unwise lending and borrowing.'"

In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. "This is not a news flash. But the first numbers are coming out further clarifying the impact of the credit crunch on people's ability to buy a new home."

"Home Builders Research released its stats that show the cancellation rate on purchases of new homes in the valley jumped to 53 percent in August."

"The rate had been closer to 30 percent two months ago before lenders starting tightening credit. 'Buyers are certainly not canceling because they are changing their minds,' said Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research. 'They are canceling because something has changed in their monthly payments.'"

"The cancellation rates have been evident in homebuilders drastically dropping their prices in the last two to three months."

"Smith reports Meritage Homes lowered prices in some of their subdivisions by $50,000. KB Home is now selling a 1,553-square-foot home for $174,990 ($112.68 per square foot) and an 1,898-square-foot home for $202,990 or $106.95 per square foot, Smith said."

"The valley's biggest cancellation rate was 77 percent in the south, followed by 60 percent in the east, Smith said. The southwest and northwest had a 48 percent and 47 percent cancellation rate, respectively. The cancellation rate in North Las Vegas was 43 percent, and Henderson had a 42 percent cancellation rate."

"Las Vegas overbuilt? If you believe NuWire Investor, Las Vegas was the No. 1 ranked overbuilt market in the U.S. during 2007."

"Smith said he doesn't understand that assessment by NUWire. There is only about a six week supply of new homes because of cancellations and builders are cutting prices to get rid of them, Smith said."

"The bigger oversupply is in the condo market where demand has softened, Smith said. More than 40 percent of resale homes on the market are vacant."

"The Las Vegas Sun reported that Jimmy Dague, who has sold real estate in Las Vegas since 1978 and whose business was the No. 1 worldwide in sales for Century 21 in 2002 and 2006, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from creditors while he reorganizes to pay his debts. Dague reported his sales fell 60 percent from 2005 to 2006."

"The number of Nevada bankruptcy filings grew more than twice as fast as those filed in the United States as a whole, according to data released by the federal judiciary."

"During the first half of 2007, filings in Nevada jumped by 113 percent, to 4,922 from 2,310, when compared with the first half of 2006. During the same time period filings nationwide increased 48.2 percent. California bankruptcy filings grew by 97.5 percent."

"The Silver State has had fewer Chapter 11 filings than other states in other regions, although there has been a significant increase in those this past year, from September 2006 to September 2007, said Assistant U.S. Trustee August Landis, who works out of the Las Vegas field office."

"Much of the increase in business bankruptcy filings can be attributed to failed real estate developments and entrepreneurs, he said."

"Bankruptcy reform is working, Landis said. 'Reform does help,' he said, adding that the legislation provides for effective tools, such as the means test, in ferreting out abuse of the system. 'The bankruptcy is not as simple. You don't just file a piece of paper and not pay your debts anymore.'"