Betting On An Uncertain Boom
The Press Register reports from Alabama. "Two years of slow sales have killed many new condo development plans and put others on hold. The inventory glut -- almost 3,000 units for sale on Alabama's Gulf Coast, has kept bankers away and Realtors hunting for buyers. 'I think it's going to be an investor market for the next 12 months, and we're going to see some pretty serious bottom feeding,' predicted broker Arthur Hood in Birmingham."
"It could be two years before the market changes, and that's barring any major hurricane, according to Hood. 'The market couldn't continue going like it was,' he added. 'We saw stuff literally triple in price' as few as two years ago."
The News Journal from Florida. "Like many home builders, Dallas-based Centex Homes is trying to remain profitable, particularly in the Volusia-Flagler market, in the face of a disastrous housing market."
"Its Jacksonville-based North Florida division is pressing on with three condominium communities in Flagler County, company officials said earlier this month."
"'We've taken early actions to improve our competitive position in every local market,' said Carl Holman, operational marketing manager in Jacksonville. 'This includes evaluating every project in every market and making prudent long-term decisions.'"
"'We tried to put some deals there that didn't work out,' said Brett Lundequam, president of Centex's Orlando division. 'For every 10 projects we put our name on, maybe only two will stick.'"
"Other home builders besides Centex are backing out of land deals, said Costa and commercial Realtor Roger Baumgartner. 'A lot of builders are just walking away, absolutely,' Baumgartner said. 'That's not a good thing.'"
The News Press from Florida. "With its new advertising campaign and attention-grabbing slogan — 'The End is Near,' Engle Homes is spreading the word that the days of declining prices for its existing housing stock are reaching an end."
"The print and electronic media ads are intended to make clear that rock-bottom has been hit and the existing inventory is shrinking, said Bruce J. Hershey II, VP of sales and marketing. 'Once it's gone, it's gone,' he said. 'It's a buyers market. The market is going to come back and once it does and there's no more inventory, you're not going to be able to come into a sales center and negotiate. Prices will never be lower. Incentives will never be higher. The end is near. Now's the time to buy.'"
"Q: Why did Engle Homes initiate the campaign?"
"A: 'There are a lot of people out there asking, 'Should I buy now, should I wait, are prices going to continue to drop?' The answer is no, it's over, prices are not going to go down any further. Incentives are not going to get any better. Now's the time to buy. That's what we want to make sure that we educate the customers about — that it's not going lower. It can't. I can't do it anymore. We've reduced the prices of the homes as low as we can. ... Forget about the bad press, because there are a lot of good things.'"
"Construction superintendent Dan Bickes was glad to leave the Michigan rust belt five years ago for a six-figure job running condominium projects in Florida."
"But after working at three different condo sites in Volusia and Flagler counties, he can't find a construction job that will pay him $100,000 or more, so Bickes and his wife, Dixie, are packing their bags for an Atlanta suburb."
"'There are no more high-rise projects coming on line this year, and it doesn't look like there will be any more for years and years, so we're getting out,' Bickes said. 'It's very disheartening.'"
"The Bickeses are not alone. More than 13,000 people left Volusia and Flagler counties for other states last year, twice the flow of earlier years, according to the Internal Revenue Service."
"'My feeling is there's a big potential problem in the soft real estate market,' said Chris McCarty, who supervises a statewide consumer confidence survey at the University of Florida. 'A key part of our economy is based on people being able to move. If people can't move, then the economy suffers.'"
The Wall Street Journal. "For almost a century, Florida has been a magnet for mobile Americans. The state's plentiful sunshine and open space has attracted "snowbirds" fleeing winter, retirees living out the last chapter of their lives and down-on-their-luck workers in search of jobs."
"Florida has become a less-appealing destination. Moving company Atlas Van Lines brought 6,700 families into Florida last year and took 8,000 out, the first time it has moved more out than in. The number of people from other states who switch to a Florida driver's license is down more than 8% from last year."
"'Growth is what Florida is known for,' says Carl Hiaasen, the Miami Herald columnist. "Florida is in the business of cramming people into real estate for absurd prices.'"
"A few months ago, Randy Quinones, a retired plumber in New Hampshire, was gearing up to leave the chilly Northeast and live out his days in Florida. He got ready to put his home on the market...but Florida housing prices caused him to look elsewhere."
"'It didn't fit our budget, so we didn't do it,' he says: Instead of Gainesville or Ocala where prices were $250,000 to $300,000, Mr. Quinones moved in May into a home outside Knoxville, Tenn., that cost $207,000."
The Herald Tribune from Florida. "The conventional wisdom is that booming growth for Florida is as sure as orange blossoms in spring and hurricanes in summer."
"But some economists -- armed with fresh anecdotal evidence -- think that, at least in the short term, high insurance rates, high property taxes and heady competition from other retirement states is taking some of the wind out of the Sunshine State's sails."
"The old axiom says that Florida picks up 1,000 residents each day, but evidence is mounting that this long-lived assumption is no longer valid."
"Earlier this year, Allied Van Lines reported that outbound residents outnumbered inbound for both Florida and California.'We have Realtors taking Floridians by the busload to buy in North Carolina,' said consultant Jack McCabe."
"Chuck and Linda Edwards are trying to snip their Southwest Florida ties while setting up shop in a rural South Carolina town that they expect to boom. They really fit into two categories because they are disenchanted Southwest Florida real estate investors as well as half-backs."
"They moved to Bradenton from Maryland in 1993 and have spent the last 13 years investing in houses, rehabilitating them and renting them. They have done 40 in Southwest Florida, and so far, have made money on every one."
"The only problem is that they have 11 in Sarasota and Manatee counties left to sell."
"Late last year, the Edwardses pulled up stakes and moved to Georgetown, S.C. They will soon list a newly tuned-up, 3,500-square-foot house for $249,900. Then they will take on a bigger project: a house half-wrecked by a large pecan tree's limbs."
"'Prices are pretty cheap here,' said Chuck Edwards."
"Sarasota Realtor Diane Christner is charged with selling the Edwardses' leftover local listings. The couple's previous residence, completely renovated with 140 feet on the Braden River, is listed for just under $400,000."
"'It has been on the market since spring,' Christner said. 'Obviously, we started up higher, around $500,000.'"
The Florida Trend. "Whether chased north by the heat, the hurricanes or property-tax and insurance costs, more Floridians are buying second homes in western North Carolina — or packing permanently for the mountains."
"And Florida home builders are following their customers north. Seeking to diversify operations as they ride out Florida’s housing downturn, the builders are buying up mountaintops and developing them by the thousands of acres."
"But they are betting on an uncertain boom. For in these cloud-laced mountains, Florida history is repeating itself in a dozen different ways. In some areas, speculators have lost money on development deals that proved too good to be true."
"'You see many of the same people operating under different business names in both markets, and the same speculators speculating in both markets,' Western Carolina University history professor Richard D. Starnes says. In the 1930s, he says, 'When the Florida market crashed, the Asheville market followed.'"
"Having experienced a seedy side to the housing boom, western North Carolina is beginning to see there can be a downside, too. Asheville-area counties that had bucked the national housing downturn began to see a slowdown this summer that in some cases is tied directly to Florida’s."
"Every real estate broker seems to have stories of buyers who couldn’t close on the purchase of a mountain home because they couldn’t sell a home in Florida."
"In Asheville, broker Joe Grady advises sellers not to make deals that are contingent upon a home sale in Florida. He’s even advising his brokers not to bother with Florida customers who have to sell their homes in Florida: 'Do not get them in your car; do not play chauffeur; do not give them the tour,' he says. 'In our experience, it is taking them a long, long time to sell.'"
"Just ask Daniel Longen, and fiancée Susan Brady. Last year, with their Naples home on the market, the couple bought a home in the western Asheville suburbs, looking forward to four seasons."
"When their Naples home languished on the market, 'I woke up in the middle of the night one night and said we’re not in too bad shape today, but this could get to be a really bad situation,' Longen says. The couple decided to put the Asheville home up for sale, too, and to live in whichever one didn’t sell. Two weeks later, they headed back to Naples."
"'I’m disappointed, but not terribly because Naples isn’t that bad, and people really seem to be working on the things we were critical of, like homeowners insurance and taxes,' Longen says. 'But those mountain vistas sure were nice.'"