House Gamblers Head For The Doors
The East Valley Tribune reports from Arizona. "Valley home prices fell at a faster pace in July than in prior months, mirroring a national trend, a home price index released Tuesday shows. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of 10 cities, which measures change in single-family home values, slid 4.5 percent in July from a year ago, the sharpest drop since July 1991."
"Prices have also fallen at an increasing rate each month since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the Valley’s index rating slid 7.3 percent in July from a year ago, as sellers and real estate agents continued to slog through the dampened market."
"'I just don’t see an end in the near future,' said Brian Bell, a real estate agent in Mesa."
"Valley home prices are still steadily declining, though some areas are hurting more than others, Bell said. In some subdivisions, people are just dumping properties, slashing prices in the process, Bell said. Sellers in outlying areas, such as Queen Creek, are also getting hammered hard by builders, who are offering steep discounts and incentives."
"Prices were definitely inflated in 2005, largely a result of a huge influx of investors, and that has now been corrected, said Christian Broadwell, owner-broker of AZCO Properties."
"'I think we are pretty much at the bottom at this point,' Broadwell said. 'It’s probably one of the best markets I’ve ever seen for a buyer.'"
"Sales of foreclosure properties and homes that have been repossessed by banks are on the rise — snapped up by savvy investors at hefty discounts. Short sale deals often come in 20 percent below the value of a property, Broadwell said."
"Brian Judy, broker in Gilbert...said he believes prices will continue to drop for now. More than 57,000 existing homes are on the market and would take roughly a year to sell if no new homes were listed for sale, Judy said. And sales will continue to drop as the slower holiday season approaches, he said. It may take years for the market to fully stabilize, Judy said."
The Arizona Daily Star. "As more homeowners end up in foreclosure, one investor in distressed properties has ended up in financial trouble, too. Deed and Note Traders LLC, which has operated a foreclosure rescue service under the name HomeSavers, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Sept. 7."
"Scott Gibson, an attorney representing Deed and Note Traders, said the company suffered from a recent tightening in the credit market as many would-be buyers have been unable to get mortgages."
"'It was really a function of the whole thing happening with the financial markets, and the slowdown in sales of residential properties,' Gibson said."
"Gibson said he could not speak to the condition of specific properties, but said some scheduled repairs haven't been done because of a 'negative cash flow.'"
"Meanwhile, August foreclosures were up more than 140 percent in Pima County compared to the same month a year ago, according to RealtyTrac."
Bloomberg Nevada Nevada. "What happens in Las Vegas doesn't stay in Vegas when it comes to the city's housing market. Tumbling home prices in the gambling Mecca will show how far and how fast U.S. property values will fall in 2008 as the housing decline enters its third year, said William Wheaton, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology."
"'Las Vegas is an important barometer for where the rest of the nation's home prices are going because it's going to show us how quickly the investors head for the doors,' Wheaton said. 'It will put the floor under the housing correction.'"
"'They had the biggest price bubble, so they're going to have the biggest price drops,' said economist Patrick Newport."
"The slump in Las Vegas could last until 2010, even if gamblers and vacationers continue to boost the city's economy, Newport said. Prices have already dropped 5 percent from last year's peak and may fall another 15 percent over the next three years, he said."
"As homebuyers descended on the desert city, it changed the way Americans look at real estate, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial Inc. in Chicago. After Las Vegas, the investment boom spread across the country from Florida to Arizona and California, Swonk said."
"'The city that gave us gambling gave us house gamblers,' Swonk said. 'Buying a home became like buying a stock on margin, with no money down.'"
"Almost half of Las Vegas home sales in 2005 and 2006 were to people who intended to resell quickly for a profit, according to data compiled by Fannie Mae, the world's largest mortgage buyer. Nationally, investment purchases accounted for 28 percent of sales in 2005, the peak of the housing boom, according to the National Association of Realtors."
"Builders...have about 23,000 homes under development in the area. MGM is constructing a 66-acre condominium and casino complex scheduled to open on Las Vegas Boulevard in 2009."
"'It's going to take up to two years for the market to work itself out,' said Ryan McPhee, owner of a Las Vegas real estate investment company. 'We have too much inventory, and more on the way.'"
"When the value of a house is less than the mortgage, owners who want to sell have to pay the lender the difference to buy out the loan, in some cases as much as $50,000, McPhee said. 'It's not that prices have plummeted, they're down about 5 percent so far. But if you bought near the top with no money down, you're under water,' he said."
"Some of the owners who bought in the early years of the boom are stuck, even after seeing prices double in five years, McPhee said. 'Some people have seen their home values soar, but a lot of them refinanced to pull out that equity and spend it on cars or gambling,' he said."
The Las Vegas Sun in Nevada. "If location, location and location are the most important factors in real estate, timing is not far behind. You don't need to tell that to Igor Doncov, who had the misfortune of investing in the booming Southern Nevada housing market just before it began to collapse three years ago."
"But today the San Mateo, Calif., computer consultant considers himself one of the lucky ones as he watches from afar the valley's rising foreclosure rate which, driven primarily by investors walking away from their homes, has become the nation's highest."
"Doncov didn't lose his two $450,000 homes to foreclosure. But he did lose $100,000 in down payments after he was able to sell both properties for what he owed on them a year after buying them."
"Unlike Doncov, who escaped with only a hefty financial loss, many other investors are now caught up in the valley's growing foreclosure epidemic."
"A Sun computer-assisted analysis of RealtyTrac data found that new foreclosure filings in Southern Nevada have skyrocketed in the past six months, from 2,165 in March to 5,242 in August."
"Combining the RealtyTrac figures with data from the Clark County assessor's office, the analysis found that 74 percent of all single-family homes in foreclosure during the past six months were owned by investors who did not live in the homes."
"Roughly 85 percent of actual auctions or repossessions of homes from March 1 through Aug. 31 involved properties not occupied by their owners, the figures show."
"As of Sept. 1, however, the Sun analysis found that 38 percent of all single-family homes in Southern Nevada were still owned by investors."
"Even the homebuilders, who were cashing in on the real estate bonanza, knew something was wrong. 'Many builders were trying to discourage the speculators,' said Irene Porter, longtime executive director of the Southern Nevada Home Builders Association."
"'We could just feel it and know that we would end up with these problems. But we really couldn't do much to stop it. You can't refuse to sell a house to someone who has a loan,' Porter said."
"Clark County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury doesn't have as much sympathy for the speculators as for the homeowners who have fallen on hard times."
"'You hate to see foreclosures, but frankly I would rather see investors get foreclosed upon than homeowners,' he said."
The Review Journal from Nevada. "Boomtown bravado aside, the next year figures to be extremely difficult for many Nevada homeowners being gradually eaten alive by adjustable-rate mortgages and the collapse of segments of the subprime-lending market."
"Nevada reported 1,470 new foreclosures in August, the highest one-month number in recent history and more than a dozen times higher than August 2006, according to information provided by Applied Analysis."
"Jeremy Aguero of Applied Analysis, says the foreclosure issue is 'trending toward the worse side, not getting better,' but he anticipates a positive surge in 2008 when the massive employment call for the new resorts will begin to be answered."
"'Are we seeing some cyclical instability?' he asks. 'You bet we are.'"
"For every 1 percent homes dip in value, Nevada loses approximately $800 million in household wealth, Aguero observes."
"But, again, he sees a pattern where others feel the panic. He asks, wasn't it 18 months ago that affordable housing was the big question? 'It seems to me the debate has turned 180 degrees,' he says."
The Salt Lake Tribune from Utah. "Zions Bancorporation, the Salt Lake City-based lender with operations in 10 Western U.S. states, said its bad loans will probably rise in the third quarter as home building and land values decline."
"Zions expects loan charge-offs of $17 million, up from $8.7 million in the second quarter, Chief Financial Officer Doyle Arnold said at an investment conference Wednesday. The bank also plans to set aside $44 million to $46 million for potential loan losses in the third quarter, compared with $17.8 million at the end of the second quarter."
"A slowdown in home construction and declining land values in the Southwest are affecting results, Arnold said. Residential land prices in suburban Phoenix declined as much as 35 percent in the past year and loan growth remains unchanged in most parts of the West, said Clark Hinckley, Zions' investor relations director."
"'Our best guess is that in Arizona we won't see the housing market recovering until 2009,' Hinckley said."
The Spectrum from Utah. "Elim Valley, a master-planned community, will celebrate its ground breaking at 11 a.m. Friday. The community is located near Sand Hollow and will reside in Hurricane's city limits, said Ed Hemmer, who works in Elim Valley's sales department."
"Laura Carlson, executive administrator for Bloomington Suites, said she 'loved it' but thought Elim Valley chose a bad time to begin development. 'With the economy and the real estate market right now, they've come at a bad time.'"