A Literal Reversal Of Fortune
A report from the Arizona Republic. "Median home prices have dropped in more than half of all metropolitan Phoenix's ZIP codes, according to a Republic analysis of new- and used-home sales from the data-research firm Information Market. Hardest hit were newer Valley fringe communities from Pinal County to Peoria and even some closer in, where home builders reduced prices."
"Several of the newer suburbs farther out such as Queen Creek, Surprise and Avondale posted double-digit drops in median home prices."
"Kathy and Dennis Rowedder are trying to sell their north Phoenix home in the 85050 ZIP code. The couple recently closed on a new house in Peoria and got a $30,000 concession on it because they haven't yet sold their existing home."
"So far, the couple have lowered their price $40,000 to $360,000."
"'I thought when we listed it at the beginning of August it was priced really well. I buried a statue of St. Joseph in our front yard for luck,' Kathy Rowedder said. 'But after we lowered our price, I went out and dug it up, cleaned it off and brought it back in the house.'"
"Overall home prices in 85050 have fallen almost 24 percent this year, the biggest drop of any Valley neighborhood. But several new, less expensive homes recently went up in the area, which pulled down the overall price. The median new-home price in 85050 dropped 60 percent this year to $298,271."
"'The bad time to buy a home was two years ago; now sellers are motivated, and there are plenty of houses to choose from,' said Steve Walsh, president of Scottsdale-based Scout Mortgage. 'Buyers just need to be careful and not get into loans they don't understand that could cost them a lot more in a few years.'"
"Based on the record 55,000-plus homes for sale across metropolitan Phoenix, Brett Barry of Realty Executives estimates there is a 12 to 14 month supply of homes on the market."
"'That means homeowners have a 1-in-12 chance to sell their home in a month,' Barry said. 'Those odds aren't good in Vegas, and they aren't good for the housing market.'"
"The drop in home prices is bad news for homeowners who bought at the peak and are now finding their homes are worth less than what they paid. Market watchers say those people should price to sell now if they have to because prices are likely to continue to drop."
"'We are going to have to go through this pain to get back to a healthy market,' said. 'Sellers tell me their bottom line on a sales price, and I tell them to forget it because we haven't seen the bottom of the market yet.'"
From KTAR in Arizona. "As homebuilders ratchet up sales incentives in the current depressed market, some housing experts are questioning their methods."
"Free landscaping and kitchen upgrades used to be the norm. Now, one builder is offering a Lexus. Arizona State University's Tony Sanders said that distorts the actual sales price."
"'It's almost like giving away toasters to open a savings account,' said Sanders. 'We want to see the real rate, we want to see the real prices. And I think most educated consumers will get by that very quickly.'"
"Tim Wilson of Wachovia goes further. He said the sales contract and appraisal should be adjusted to determine the accurate value of the properly. 'That should be documented in the contract, and the appraisal should be adjusted to determine the accurate value of the property,' said Wilson."
"John Foltz, president of Realty Executives, agreed, saying incentives worth tens of thousands could distort market values."
"'To my mind, it's kind of an artificial way to sell a home for less money, but not have the public records show it was sold for less money,' Foltz said. 'I understand why it's done -- to sort of support neighborhood values and so on. On the other hand, prices are what they are and transparency's a good idea. So, it's not something I'm really in favor of, but I know it does happen.'"
From Builder Online on Nevada. "According to RealtyTrac...foreclosure rates are up 99 percent from September 2006 and Nevada continues to hold the nation's highest rate of foreclosures."
"For September, Nevada is reporting one foreclosure for every 185 households and 5,504 foreclosure filings, which is up 187 percent from September 2006. The executive director of the Southern Nevada Home Builders Association, Irene Porter, says certain factors are being ignored in Nevada's nine-month reign atop the nation's foreclosure list."
"'It's bad but it is not as huge a number as it appears to be because you have to take into consideration the amount of housing we've built in the last few years,' Porter told BUILDER Online. 'It is part of the nationwide problem we have as a result of [bad] mortgages and investor buying. A good number of [Nevada's] foreclosures are related to the investor buy.'"
The Daily Herald from Utah. "Wasatch Front Realtors are basking in the bright spot. That's because the state is a market unto itself."
"'We didn't participate in the housing boom when the rest of the country was, we never do,' said Jim Bringhurst, president of the Utah Association of Realtors."
"Instead, the state created its own mini-boom on the back of a blistering economy and new move-ins from more expensive areas like California, Nevada and Arizona."
"'They want to sell on the high side and come here and get a better quality of life,' Bringhurst said. 'Our houses are a bargain compared to the markets they're coming from.'"
"Utah's market will slow down, but because it's not dependent on the rest of the nation, a softer landing is more likely."
"That landing may be premature, though, says Bringhurst, because Utah homeowners are paying attention to national trends instead of local trends, such as low unemployment, low interest rates and a lack of a speculative market."
The Deseret News from Utah. "The uncertainty surrounding Utah's topsy-turvy housing market is revealed in the responses to a recent Deseret Morning News/KSL TV survey conducted by Dan Jones and Associates."
"'Right now it is definitely 'change time.' I personally believe (the market) is going to get back to the days we had back in the '80s and '90s a little bit,' explained Dave Seiler, an area Realtor."
"He described circumstances in which home prices have been artificially inflated due to out-of-state investors and speculators flocking to Utah, triggering a steep increase in property values for a short time — followed thereafter by a sharp decline."
"But Kelly Matthews, economist for Wells Fargo, sees Utah's current home market as more stable than other states that saw rapid appreciation and are currently experiencing a literal reversal of fortune. 'Our Utah situation has not deteriorated nearly as much as some of the other places,' Matthews said."
"Matthews said new home construction fell 20 percent during the period August 2006 to August 2007, while selling prices for homes increased in the double digits for the same period."
"'Most of the adjustment thus far has been made in a reduction in construction (of new homes) rather than any cut in pricing,' Matthews said."
"Back in the trenches, Seiler says the evidence is clear."
"'When you look at how many investors were in our market two years ago — even versus last year — the problem is that some of them had done well,' resulting in a number of houses being rehabbed and 'flipped' for a nice profit, he said."
"'Everybody had gone to classes, and all these investment seminars were on every corner with signs saying 'Investor needs apprentice.' Everywhere you went around, people were thinking they were going to make big money in real estate. If you look at the investors who bought last, they're hurting right now,' he added."
"He said currently there is a high volume of high-end properties that are not selling, creating a glut of homes in the Utah market."
"'So you get all these (late) investors in there who now own properties that are sitting vacant, and they're having to start doing whatever they can because it's starting to eat their profits away if they had any,' Seiler said."
"Seiler is concerned Utah may find itself in similar situations to other states that are experiencing serious housing price corrections."
"'Right now the buyers are sitting on their hands doing nothing,' he said. 'Those interested in purchasing homes already have the sense the market is changing. Many prospective buyers have recognized prices are falling and they could get more for their money if they are patient.'"
"'Everywhere you turn around, you're seeing 'price reduced' signs going up,' Seiler said — adding that a number of homes are selling for less than the asking price, which also drives down prices overall."
"Pointing to his own market analysis, Matthews said affordability fell significantly from February 2005 to February 2007, meaning home prices increased more than prospective buyers' ability to qualify for loans to purchase them. He predicts a 7 percent drop in the average Wasatch Front home price by mid-2008, which he says will increase affordability, thereby strengthening the overall market."
"'If people can't qualify for loans and the homes aren't selling, at some point (builders and sellers) are going to have to lower their prices,' Matthews said."