Everybody Thinks Prices Are Going To Fall
A report from the Coloradoan. "While it's no surprise the real estate market is battling with foreclosures stemming from the subprime fallout, some industry experts say the region hasn't seen the worst of it. For the first quarter of 2007, the Colorado Division of Housing reported 9,254 foreclosure filings in the state, equal to one-third of all filings for 2006."
"The Genesis Group reports 738 foreclosures for Larimer County in the first half of 2007, on pace for a record year. 'We have not tightened down our underwriting guidelines,' said Pete Lansing of Universal Lending Co. 'There's not enough appreciation in the market.'"
"With new home sales down 23 percent, builders are regulating their construction with inventory down 26 percent, reported John Gerhard, senior market analyst with the Genesis Group."
"The slow down in production has created an increase in vacant lots. John Covert of Metrostudy pointed to an almost 60-month lot supply for Larimer County and almost 70 months for Weld County."
"'We've been completing more homes than closing,' he said. 'It has taken awhile for our developers up here to respond to the housing slowdown. It'll be awhile before we return to that path of growth.'"
The Arizona Daily Star. "A Tucson housing market analyst is projecting a much deeper, longer slowdown than earlier anticipated. In his monthly Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, analyst John Strobeck said it might not recover until 2010 if inventory levels remain high and the sales pace stays the same."
"'It will be at least that long, maybe longer,' he said."
"Earlier this year, Strobeck predicted that a recovery might come as soon as the first quarter of 2008."
"Strobeck's report, released Tuesday, showed drops of about 20 percent in the number of new-home sales and about 18 percent in the number of existing-home sales in September compared with the same month last year."
"The median, or middle price, for new homes fell about 8 percent to $235,496 compared with September 2006, according to Strobeck's report. The median price for existing homes rose by about 3 percent to $206,000, compared with the same month last year, according to the report."
"The volume of new home permits in September dropped to 286, the lowest monthly number since January 1993, according to the market letter."
"Strobeck, whose company is called Bright Future Business Consultants, said tighter mortgage-lending standards, a growing number of foreclosures and other financial problems may have a greater impact on the market in the future."
"'It will be at least that long, maybe longer,' he said about the 2010 projection and joked that he is now 'wearing black all the time.'"
"Tucson-based mortgage lender First Magnus Financial Corp. says it can pay wages to employees laid off before the company filed for bankruptcy, according to a plan filed with the court Tuesday."
"But other unsecured creditors could end up with pennies on the dollar under the plan."
"Tucson bankruptcy attorney Matthew R.K. Waterman, who is representing unsecured creditor National Bank of Arizona, said it is too soon to tell how much money will actually be available for unsecured creditors because the company is still determining how much it owes."
"As a 'ballpark figure,' Waterman said he expects creditors to receive around 20 cents on the dollar. 'I wouldn't be surprised if it's substantially less than that,' he said."
The Arizona Republic. "If you're a renter looking for a new apartment, you could be in for some good deals in the coming months. Apartment managers around the Valley are starting to offer rent specials again as occupancy falls and rents increase at a slower rate."
"The culprit behind the trend, according to brokers and property managers, is a burgeoning number of single-family homes that are being rented out by their owners."
"Falling home prices and 'condo reversions,' or the transformation of apartments that were to be turned into condos now being turned back into apartments, also has had an impact on the supply of vacant units."
The Associated Press. "A bankruptcy judge this week converted Spectrum Financial Group Inc.'s Chapter 11 case to a Chapter 7 liquidation after the mortgage lender said it lacked the ability to reorganize. Judge Sarah S. Curley of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Phoenix signed off on Spectrum's conversion request Tuesday."
"A trustee will be appointed to sell off the company's assets, pursue claims on the estate's behalf and oversee distributions to creditors. The Scottsdale, Ariz.-based company sought shelter under Chapter 11 on Aug. 28, one of a number of housing lenders to succumb to the credit crunch squeezing the U.S. mortgage industry."
The Wall Street Journal on Nevada. "During the height of Las Vegas's real-estate boom two years ago, property investor Rob Rozzen bought 16 homes, hoping that skyrocketing prices would pump up his retirement nest egg."
"Now, Mr. Rozzen says he is considering filing for bankruptcy protection. As the housing market slowed, the 40-year-old was unable to sell the homes, and his full-time job as a real-estate agent was no longer able to support mortgage payments totaling $45,000 a month."
"So one by one, over the past 14 months, Mr. Rozzen has stopped making payments on his investment properties, for which he paid between $226,000 and $390,000, and lenders have foreclosed."
"He says, walking away from his investment properties was his only option. 'You get to a point where your hands are tied,' he says."
"Certain data point to the trend. According to an August study by the Mortgage Bankers Association, defaults on mortgages where the owner doesn't live in the house are a major driver of the defaults in Florida, Nevada, California and Arizona, four of the states with the fastest rising rates of seriously delinquent loans."
The Gazette Journal from Nevada. "The Truckee Meadows’ ongoing housing slump has left its mark on the office market in south Reno, according to area commercial real estate firms."
"Colliers International’s third-quarter report shows cutbacks at Lennar, Centex and other homebuilders have swelled office vacancies in south Reno to what officials believe will hit 25 percent by early next year."
"Added co-author Kevin Annis, Colliers senior associate, 'With (vacancy) of upwards of 25 percent, it doesn’t make sense to build.'"
"Don Welsh, VP of office properties at Grubb & Ellis, said his pending report will show the same trends. 'They (homebuilders) don’t need the square footage,' he said. 'So it’s a little bit scary. We could easily be up 25 percent.'"
The Salt Lake Tribune from Utah. "The news just keeps getting worse for home builders along the Wasatch Front, where demand for new homes in September plummeted to the lowest level since 1990."
"Builders took out permits for the construction of 485 homes locally last month, down from 1,191 in September 2006, according to Construction Monitor. The last time residential building activity along the Wasatch Front was this low was 17 years ago, when builders pulled 396 permits for new housing units."
"Utah's real estate market, like many others, is being hurt by tighter lending standards put in place after the nation's subprime lending debacle. Perhaps an even bigger issue is that several years' worth of home-price increases, from Ogden to Provo, have put homeownership out of the reach of Utah families whose incomes haven't kept pace."
"Laura Murdoch and husband Matt said they have been trying to sell their home in Draper since early July. They have lowered the asking price by $50,000, but 'barely anyone has even looked at it,' Laura Murdoch said."
"The problem is that the Murdochs signed in January a contract to construct a new home, which is scheduled to be finished in three weeks. With no buyer for their old home in sight, the couple is facing the specter of two mortgage payments."
"The couple is considering further price cuts on the home they are trying to sell. Even better, the couple said, would be if the builder would let them out of the contract of their new home."
"'We're even willing to walk away from our down payment,' said Laura Murdoch."
"Builders say the biggest problem they face is fear among prospective buyers. 'People are afraid to purchase' a home right now, said Jordan Bangerter, a managing member of Bangerter Homes in South Jordan who also is the first VP of the Salt Lake Home Builders Association. 'Everybody thinks prices are going to fall.'"
"And that is a concern for a number of builders in the state, who are grappling with high levels of unsold inventories and layoffs. 'There's a tough adjustment ahead of us,' Bangerter said."