There Is No Smart Money Buying Right Now
The Press Enterprise reports from California. "The California Association of Realtors is predicting that in 2008, the median price of a resale home in the state will decline 4 percent to $553,000 and sales will drop another 9 percent on top of a 23-percent plunge this year. Chapman University economist Esmael Adibi said the significance of the state Realtors association projection is that it reflects a growing pessimism among real estate experts."
"Adibi said earlier this year that many experts were forecasting that sales might rebound and home prices might stabilize by 2008. He said it is the first time that Badagliacco's group has acknowledged the downturn may continue for another year."
"'We haven't seen any turnaround in sales, and the inventory of unsold homes keeps rising,' Adibi noted. 'For sure there will be no rebound.'"
"Scott Chappell, owner of a Riverside real estate agency, was at the Anaheim Convention Center on Wednesday. He said agents had flocked to the trade show in hopes of finding new ways to make a living. They were at seminars in foreclosures, marketing bank repossessions and using home auctions to attract buyers."
"Chappell said since 2005 he has seen his business fall off by two-thirds, and he is expecting a two-year-downturn. 'There is no smart money buying right now,' he said."
"Lenders siezed more than 1,000 homes in Riverside County in August and again in September. That's more than five times as many repossessed homes as in July and almost 20 times as many as in September 2006, according to RealtyTrac." "Just before the bank took possession of a home in northwestern Riverside County, its former owners attacked the walls with paintball guns and smashed gaping holes in them."
"They ripped out stair railings, banisters and cabinet doors in the half-million-dollar Eastvale house. Then they turned on the upstairs bathroom sinks, put down the drain stoppers and fled as the bank's locksmith arrived to rekey the doors."
"'You can walk into all kinds of things because the people are angry they are being evicted,' said Lauren Rooney, a Corona agent who inspects homes just after lenders foreclose on them. 'You get people who are really upset at the last minute, and they say, 'We are going to make the bank pay!'"
The Daily Press. "The median home price in the Victor Valley has dropped to $285,614 at the end of September, according to the Victor Valley MLS compiled by Larry Trombley."
"Overall, sales continued to fall, by 10.4 percent from August and 63.1 percent from September of last year. September prices were down 3.3 percent from August and 18.5 percent from September of last year."
"'It’s going to continue to go down a little bit more,' Trombley said, citing the competition from foreclosures as well as new homes. 'They keep adding incentives,' he said."
The Voice of San Diego. "Banks seized 14 times as many San Diego County homes last month as they did in September of last year. Market watchers say the ever-growing foreclosure inventory will drive down prices among the 23,000 homes on the resale market countywide."
"The number of homes to make it all the way through the foreclosure process to become bank-owned properties in San Diego County soared to 866 homes, a 43 percent increase from August's 602, according to RealtyTrac.""Compared to many home sellers, lenders are dispassionate. They hire brokers or send properties to formal auctions with instructions to lower prices quickly to get the properties off their books. And the more properties lenders absorb, the more willing they are to lop off tens of thousands of dollars from their asking prices."
"Ramsey Su is a retired REO broker who worked in the local market during the 1980s and 1990s who tracks the market extensively. Having attended both of the major home auctions in San Diego this year, Su estimated those auctioned homes have sold for about 30 percent less than the price the company listed as the homes' previous values."
"During Su's career, an intake of 800-some REOs in a month was unheard of. 'I don't even remember months then that we even had 200,' he said. 'Two hundred would be 'Wow, what a terrible month.' I watch what is coming in the front door. If [banks] are in the process of acquiring 1,000 a month, the magnitude is so much.'"
"The U.S. House of Representatives passed H.R. 3648, a bill that will disallow the IRS from sending a tax bill to homeowners who negotiated short sales with their lenders. Su said the new measure could encourage others to give up, to default on their loans."
"'If I'm that homeowner, saying, 'I refinanced and I bought my jet ski, I bought season tickets to the Chargers,' what is my neighbor going to do, who's working two jobs to make that same payment and he gets screwed? ... He's going to say, 'I better default, too,' Su said."
The Orange County Register. "With all but two business days left uncounted, September is on pace to have been one of the worst home-buying months in the 20 years of O.C. market watching by DataQuick."
"For the 22 business days ending Sept. 26, the median selling price was $585,000 — down almost 9 percent from August and the lowest since April 2005. The most recent price snapshot is 7.6% below the same period in ‘06."
The Merced Sun Star. ""Merced finally ranks No. 1. Unfortunately, it's the nationwide foreclosure rate. Merced posted 1,137 foreclosure-related filings last month. In September 2006, the county saw 126 such filings."
"Sharon Mogliotti, a mortgage planning specialist with CTX Mortgage, called the skyrocketing foreclosure rate a 'history-setting' moment for Merced. 'Our mortgage industry and the economy has never been through a market like this,' she added. Mogliotti has worked in the mortgage industry for 40 years."
"In one extreme instance, said Mogliotti, a Blockbuster clerk was given a mortgage after he wrote on his application that he earned $6,000 a month. The loan was later audited, and the loan officer was fired and fined $50,000, said Mogliotti."
"Home prices have plummeted, leaving homeowners in over their heads with few options. 'The bottom line is, there were a lot of people that wanted to buy a home and lenders got greedy and put them in stated income (and adjustable rate mortgages) and they just couldn't afford it,' said Mogliotti."
The Mercury News. "Despite lenders announcing plans to help homeowners avoid foreclosure by increasing education or outreach, one local group says most lenders are not doing nearly enough."
"Counselors at federally sponsored housing agencies reported foreclosure in 57 percent of cases and short sales at 33 percent as the most common outcomes for borrowers who can't pay their mortgages, the San Francisco-based California Reinvestment Coalition reported Wednesday."
"The report also said that lenders resisted modifying loans to fixed rates, offered only short-term solutions and didn't reach out to consumers in trouble."
"'In my experience, the lender will offer repayment plans rather than loan modification,' said Katrina Vizinau, a homeownership counselor. 'They're asking for unrealistic upfront money. If they had that kind of money, they would have made the payments.'"
The San Francisco Chronicle. "'The most striking thing that came out of this (study) is that there is a huge chasm between what the lenders are stating, which very well may be their policies, and what's happening on the ground,' said Kevin Stein, associate director of the coalition."
"Paul Howard, who has an adjustable-rate mortgage on his Sacramento home, said seeking a loan modification was frustrating."
"Howard bought his house for $274,000 with 100 percent financing in April 2005. The in-law who arranged his adjustable mortgage told him it would stay at 5.75 percent for five years (a $1,400 monthly payment)."
"'I was shocked when after just two years, it adjusted,' he said. 'I should probably have paid closer attention to details.'"
The Sacramento Bee. "Sacramento-area home builders are on track this year to sell the fewest number of new homes since 1997 following one of the toughest quarters yet in the ongoing housing slump."
"At the current pace, capital-area sales could dip below 8,000 this year, only slightly above the 7,455 registered 10 years ago, according to the Folsom-based Gregory Group."
"'It's more of the same,' said Gregory Group President Greg Paquin. 'It's continuing in the same path it's been continuing.'"
"Home building giants and local family builders alike sold 1,592 homes from July through September in the six-county region, the Gregory Group said in a report scheduled to be released today. That's 18.6 percent below sales in the same time last year. And it's the lowest three-month tally since the fourth quarter of 2005 when a wild, profitable ride enjoyed by builders for years suddenly shut down."
"'It is tough. It's tough up and down the state,' said Chris Hanson, a Sacramento-area executive for Costa Mesa-based Warmington Homes. The firm recently laid off 15 Sacramento staffers and folded its capital operation into an East Bay division."
"Sacramento builder John Leonard encountered roadblocks, too, after auctioning 22 West Sacramento town homes last month. 'The homes we sold at auction were too low and didn't meet the bank payoff requirement,' Leonard said."
"Leonard said his lender rejected all bids because they were at least $88,000 below minimum for each unit. He said negotiations are proceeding for investors to take over the River's Side at Washington Square project."
The Press Democrat. "Sonoma County foreclosure filings more than tripled in September as homeowners struggled to keep up with their mortgage payments, according to a study."
"Foreclosure filings soared to 272 in Sonoma County last month, up from 75 a year ago, reflecting an accelerating housing downturn across California, according to RealtyTrac."
"For would-be buyers who have been waiting to enter the market, the flood of foreclosure activity should be good news, but they may want to wait until early next year for prices to fall further in California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona and other once high-flying markets, said Pat McPherron, an economist at Moody's Economy.com."
"'People have a tendency to try to catch the bottom of the trough and really ride it to the top,' McPherron said. 'If someone said, 'is that now?' my answer is no.'"