What Follows Is Always The Big Plummet
The New York Times reports on Maryland. "Colorful banners, draped across buildings like giant flags, urge people driving through Baltimore’s rebuilt downtown neighborhoods to move into the new condos and apartments inside. 'Sophisticated Urban Living W/Garage and Gated Off-Street Parking' one sign declares in the long campaign to gentrify the central city."
"Until recently, the ballyhoo was not much needed. But now, the banners are the most visible evidence of the incipient damage to this major American city from the turmoil in the national economy."
"As home sales dry up, tax revenues fade, foreclosures have surged, hiring is down and a new caution is inhibiting activity."
"'I don’t see a recession mentality,' said Atwood Collins III, executive VP of the M&T Bank Corporation, who complains that the national media are amplifying the bad news. 'But you would have to be deaf, dumb and blind not to be a little infected by what is being said.'"
The Gazette. "Maryland luxury homebuilders are adjusting to the housing slump by marketing less expensive models that still offer the upscale cachet that affluent buyers seek."
"In acknowledging the obvious, John Lavery, Mid-Atlantic’s VP for sales and marketing sounded a hopeful note. 'The market is still in a slump — there is no doubt,' he said. 'But we think we’re at the bottom of it.'"
"Luxury homebuilders are uncertain of the future. 'I think everybody across the industry doesn’t know what to think,' said Thomas West, VP for Greentree Homes, which has added 'affordably priced houses' at its Tuscarora Creek community in Frederick. 'Everything now is a negotiated deal. People seem very interested in buying a home, but there is no urgency if they already live in this area. They may have a home to sell.'"
The Virginia Pilot. "The message embedded in Old Dominion University's latest State of the Region report is clear: Don't expect the slowing Hampton Roads economy to rebound soon."
"Moreover, the document painted a bleak outlook for parts of the Hampton Roads housing market. The boom in housing prices is over, and prices 'already are stagnating in response to increasing amounts of inventory,' it said."
"The sector of Hampton Roads' housing market that will encounter particular difficulty, it said, is condominiums."
"'Substantial amounts of new inventory are still under construction and have yet to hit the market,' the report said. 'Some investors who purchased condominium units with the intent of 'flipping' them...now find they cannot make a sale without significant price reductions.'"
"Another source of heartburn in the housing market has been the sharp rise in foreclosures among higher-risk borrowers who used sub-prime mortgages to buy homes. 'Sub-prime delinquency rates in Hampton Roads almost doubled between December 2005 and December 2006,' it said."
The State Journal from West Virginia. "During the past few years, it seemed as though every apple orchard in the Eastern Panhandle entered autumn decorated in one of two ways: with shiny, red fruit dangling from tree limbs or bright surveyor's tape showing where the next batch of new houses would spring up."
"But this autumn, the bumper crop of new houses appears to have stopped."
"A glut of homes available on the market, coupled with a nationwide panic over mortgage-lending practices, has slowed the once hyperactive housing market in Jefferson, Berkeley and Morgan counties to a crawl and left homebuilders scrambling to find buyers."
"'We've had some builders go out of business here because we overbuilt and the houses were just overpriced,' said Marc Savitt, president-elect of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers and president of The Mortgage Center, a Martinsburg-based mortgage lender."
"The Eastern Panhandle is not alone. According to real estate and homebuilder associations from throughout the state, the market is slowing down a bit, especially in counties that have seen housing prices skyrocket in recent years."
"'Part of the reason for that is because interest rates went up, and it's also because we have had an awful lot of building, so the supply is up,' said Chris Ilardi, secretary of the North Central West Virginia Home Builders Association."
"'It's the concurrence from our members that it is slowing down all over the state,' Ilardi said. 'In the Eastern Panhandle, they are really hurting. The average time on the market there is exceeding one year. So when it stopped, it just stopped, like someone turned off the faucet.'"
"'Some of the larger national lenders came into West Virginia, and they brought in their own mortgage brokers and title agents,' said Savitt. 'They offered customers discounts but required them to use the in-house broker and appraisers. And the discounts were simply shifted to other parts of the mortgage so the buyer still ended up paying the same price."
"'Now we are seeing a lot of those people coming in, trying to refinance, and what they are finding is that when it was appraised it wasn't worth as much as what the appraiser told them, he said."
"As a result, a number of those properties are in foreclosure. In fact, a recent survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed more than one out of four of those loans are considered delinquent, and the state has the one of the highest delinquency rates in the country for subprime adjustable rate mortgages."
"'The prices have dropped, and that's the bad news. But it's also good news because affordability is back,' Savitt said. 'Houses are becoming reasonably priced again, and that may enable people who were priced out of a home to now afford one.'"
"Savitt said a couple recently came to his office to talk with him about buying a home. They had come in last year hoping to buy a house that caught their eye. But at that time the prices simply were too high. They couldn't afford the loan."
"This year, things are different. The couple told Savitt they had found another home they liked, one that was the same model style and in the same development as the home they fell in love with in 2006. But this time around, they could afford to buy."
"'It was the same style house, but it cost $40,000 less,' he said. 'Real estate around here has gone crazy, but now it's going to a more affordable level and becoming more normal.'"
The Sun News from South Carolina. "Real estate sales are still falling from last year's levels, but the number of condominiums on the market has dropped, a decline officials say comes because buyers are likely pulling units off the market."
"Homes are selling at the same pace they did in 2004, but down 19 percent from last year, according to the MLS."
"Condo sales have dropped 38 percent from last year, and are selling at the same pace they did in 2003."
"'Well, it's not getting worse. I don't look for numbers to start turning around for probably another year,' said Tom Maeser, president of the Fortune Academy of Real Estate. 'People need to hang tight. Sellers need to get realistic in pricing, and buyers have to realize they can't wait forever for good deals. There are definitely good deals out there.'"
"It will take at least 15 months to sell the current supply of homes on the market at today's sales pace and 23 months for condos, Maeser said."
"Falling condo inventory is a good sign for the correcting market. There are 8,975 units on the market compared to 10,493 last year."
"Rachel Broadhurst, president of Century 21 Broadhurst, said this is likely due to condo sellers deciding to wait to sell or choosing to rent out properties. 'We encourage people to do that sometimes,' she said."
"But single-family home inventory is up 20 percent to 6,344 homes from 5,291 last year."
"Broker Mirela Monte said what happens on the oceanfront affects the rest of the area, and home prices inland are dropping as well but not as drastically as the oceanfront. When oceanfront prices skyrocketed in 2005, so did inland home prices."
"Monte wants real estate agents to talk realistically about the market to their clients. After a sales frenzy and skyrocketing prices in 2005, Monte calls what happened in 2006 'the paralysis period,' where listings grew but there were few or no sales."
"What follows she says is always 'the big plummet,' where sales happen at unbelievably low prices, well below established comparable sales. The plummet has happened on the oceanfront and is starting inland, but won't be as drastic there, Monte said."
"'Our third quarter statistics are dismal at best: only 9 percent of available condos have sold in the past quarter, only 18 percent of the homes and 5 percent of the lots available have sold in our area during the past three months,' she said."
"July, August and September are normally hot sales months on the Strand, she said. 'These disheartening figures may signal a more severe trend yet,' Monte said."
"Economist Mark Vitner of Wachovia said price declines are painful but necessary. 'A lot of people were priced out of the market and prices need to correct,' Vitner said."
"The growing number of foreclosures will also lower prices because banks will be more willing to discount homes than investors who've lost money, Vitner said."
"Real estate slowdowns are as predictable as the rising sun. We know they will return, but unlike the sun, we just don't know when. We are in the midst of one. A National Association of Realtors index, which tracks pending sales of homes, fell to its lowest level ever."
"That report is only the latest that has shown a soft real estate market. The news is similar locally, with double-digit drops in area condo and single-family sales. Sellers are lowering prices. The coast saw the biggest gains during the boom and is experiencing the largest drops."
"Some believe reporting such facts is the media's way of harping on the negative. I didn't notice that kind of complaining when the media was penning positive headlines, even though everyone in the know understood such rapid market expansion could not be sustained."
"Many of those who unwisely jumped into the market without first preparing themselves are hurting. 'It was just plain easy to get anybody approved,' said Eunice Harris of New Genesis Mortgage in Conway. 'For the last three years, just about anybody who wanted a house could get a house.' Harris turned down several people who weren't ready for the responsibility."
"'You want to see people get into homes; you do not want people to get into a home they can't afford,' Harris said."
"The hundreds of mortgage companies Harris was able to place a mortgage with in recent years are dwindling by the day. She closed a loan with one company on a Friday only to get an e-mail on Monday saying they were shutting their doors."
"'It's a mess, isn't it?' Harris said of the market, which can mean only one thing: 'This is a good time to buy,' she said."