Black Friday: A Blue Housing Bubble Christmas?
What's your prediction for the shopping turnout tomorrow and for the holiday season in general, in light of the housing bubble pop? "Black Friday, the unofficial start to the holiday shopping season when retailers hopefully see revenue move from the red to black. Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, took perhaps the boldest move by launching its own version of Black Friday - on Nov. 2. The company slashed prices on a laptop computer, 50-inch plasma HD TV, toy car, HD DVDs and an HD-DVD player."
"Retail experts say the calculated decision to target some of the most popular gifts demonstrates just how nervous retailers are as they enter a holiday season amid record-high oil prices, continual fallout from the home mortgage market and sagging consumer confidence."
"'There looks to be a bit of panic,' said retail analyst Patty Edwards. Edwards said the concern first surfaced in August during talks with companies like Limited Brands, the parent of Victoria's Secret and Bath and Body Works. Edwards said executives were worried that the mortgage mess would cut into consumers' ability to access credit."
"Consider that from 2000 to 2006, Clark County's (WA) population grew by 19 percent. Home-building activity drives a number of retail categories. The housing market is drastically different this year. The county has issued 1,107 single-family home building permits through October, 20.3 percent fewer than a year ago."
"The inventory of homes on the market grew to an 11.4-month supply by October, according to real-estate statistics. Those economic factors meant retailers entered the crucial part of the fiscal year with little momentum."
"Eager and well-researched shoppers will be camping tonight in tents outside Bass Pro Shop in Clarksville (IN), lining up for a 4 a.m. opening at Kohl’s on Charlestown Road in New Albany and battling frigid temperatures at every other big-box store in the region in search of one thing Friday morning — bargains."
"A weak housing market, credit crunch and increased energy costs are expected to create a pinch for many consumers, and could create even more of a frenzy for those hunting for deep bargains this year. "
"'There will be several thousand people in line well before 6 a.m.,' said Amanda Trester, promotions manager for the Bass Pro Shop. Many of those shoppers won’t have far to go. The store is holding a camp-out in the parking lot and even offering tents on a first-come, first-served basis after the doors close tonight at 6 p.m."
"'It’s our jump-start on Black Friday shopping,' Trester said."
"Retailers are gearing up for the most eagerly anticipated shopping day, crossing their fingers that bargain-hunting masses will spend so much money the day after Thanksgiving the holiday season will be saved."
"It's an edgy time for stores as Americans worry about gasoline prices, mortgage payments, home values and credit-card debt."
"Lowe's Cos., the nation's second-largest home improvement chain, slashed its earnings forecast Monday too, blaming a steep 'decline in housing turnover, falling home prices in many markets and a near-record inventory of homes for sale.'"
"The weak housing market also took the blame when housewares chain Williams-Sonoma Inc. said last week that third-quarter profit fell 7.1%. Another chain, Ann Taylor Stores Corp., cited 'ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty' when it lowered its earnings expectations. Macy's Inc. cut its fourth-quarter sales forecast by $100 million."
"Although the day after Thanksgiving isn't usually the busiest shopping day -- that is the Saturday before Christmas -- what's known as Black Friday is closely watched by analysts and enjoyed by mobs of Americans."
"'I think you're going to see a huge crowd on Black Friday but I just don't think it will last long,' Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group, said. 'I think Black Friday will roar in like a lion and go out like a lamb.'"