The Bubble That Fueled Spending Isn't There Anymore
Readers suggested a topic on personal spending and saving in this holiday season. "I’d like to see a topic about what a bearish investor sitting on the sidelines with Cash that is getting throttled by inflation, stocks that are getting pummeled, and an overall bearish sentiment on the state of the US economy can REALISTICALLY do to maximize their safety while concurrently not overexposing in any one class (such as foreign currencies, gold, other commodities or whatever else)?"
A reply, "If you are *really* bearish on the US stock market (and the S&P 500 in particular), there are always the contrary plays, like UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)."
"There’s also Short QQQ(Q), Short Dow 30, etc., and the related UltraShorts on all of them. My play money is in the SDS."
Another asked, "No one can time the market perfectly but does the following sound like a good idea? 2 or 3 year LEAP puts on financials, luxury consumer, and big momentum stocks like AAPL and GOOG. 2 or 3 year LEAP calls on commodities, energy, precious metals."
"I never hear much talk about LEAP’s but considering that the big players and the Fed are willing and capable of commiting anything to prevent the needed collapse, they can’t succeed for that long. And if they do manage to keep the music going that long. I can not fathom the absolute armageddon that would unleash."
Another posted this, "Holiday spending? What do you think will save retail and melt the numbers off our credit cards this holiday season?"
One replied, "No because a smaller perfect storm has hit the credit cards too. They’re having to use them for living expenses and even to pay the mortgage now - so no credit limits available for junk."
"You want to get a good feel for this - read the 'wanted' boards on Craigslist. The Christmas begging started a month ago. Very early."
Another shared this, "I stood behind a fellow in line not long ago and he went through 5 cards until they found one with room on it, and the bill was $37.00 and change!"
One noted this trend, "I think that the places that have been hit really hard already CA, FL, OH, etc. we’ll see some major retail pain, but perhaps other areas won’t feel the crunch as deeply, yet. However, I didn’t see anyone buying big ticket items, mostly just crappy sweaters and towels, so maybe people are cutting back on the cost of items even if the quantity is staying the same."
And one has a specific measure, "The American consumer will gleefully spend as much as possible so long as they can get more credit. My barometer is my brother in law - a mechanic who has gone BK twice, has some $30K in CC debt and has no problem whatsoever getting new cards, a new truck every couple years, and a new cell phone plan. He’s still spending like nuts. However, he did try to buy a house recently and was turned down."
One had a prediction, "Christmas ‘07 will be the first visible sign of the consumer pullback. Joe Sixpack and Nancy Pinot Nior are cutting expenses as I type. They borrowed from the future, now comes the belt tightening (either voluntary or forced). I stand by my Christmas ‘07 prediction, that it will be reported as a very disappointing selling season, followed by talk of a contraction/recession."
From Bloomberg. "Sales at U.S. retailers slowed in October as rising fuel prices and falling property values left Americans with little extra cash to spend, economists said reports this week will show."
"The housing slump may be partly responsible for decreasing demand for furniture and appliances, economists said. A report from the National Association of Realtors on Nov. 13 may show...the number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes dropped to the lowest level on record in September, the agents' group is forecast to report."
"'Housing will probably be bad for the next 18 months,' said Jeffrey Immelt, CEO of General Electric Co. 'We have to be cautious about the U.S. consumer. The consumer has used their house as a piggy bank.'"
The Detroit Free Press. "Flush real estate values for years meant that consumers could put little money down on a house, watch the home's value grow and then treat that added equity just like a bonus."
"But the credit crunch has landed with a thud, falling particularly hard on Michigan. The days are over where practically anyone could turn the house into an ATM."
"In metro Detroit, we're watching the collapse of home-equity financing. Homeowners here pulled $200 million out of their homes' value in the first half of 2007, compared with $2.2 billion in 2006, reports Equifax and Moody's Economy.com. The number had been as high as $4 billion in 2000."
"This piece of havoc in the housing market is national and isn't just hitting people who borrowed way over their heads or are trying to sell the house."
"Sean Gurske took out a $22,000 equity loan on his Woodhaven home. He invested that money in a tanning salon that didn't work out. Gurskey now owes about $245,000 on a house that's worth less than the $265,000 he paid for it in 2003."
"His monthly mortgage payment is $2,486 and set to climb in July when his adjustable rate goes up again. He's having trouble refinancing into a fixed rate because the home's value has dropped, he has that home-equity line and he filed for bankruptcy in 2005."
"He said he hasn't missed a mortgage payment yet. He's working with two lenders...but he isn't getting any help so far to keep the payments lower. 'I'm the one that wrote my name down, but I didn't expect the housing industry to go down like it did,' he said. 'I wasn't expecting to lose all this equity.'"
"Pava Leyrer, president of the Michigan Mortgage Brokers Association, had one customer in the Grand Rapids area who had to borrow about $30,000 through an unsecured loan so he could sell his house. He brought that money, plus some savings, to the table to cover what he still owed on his mortgage and home-equity loan. The house, once appraised at $380,000 a few years ago, sold for $285,000 in July."
"Going forward, three things will cut into borrowing power: Home values are expected to continue to trend down. 'The values are coming in lower and lower by the day,' said Steve Gornick, business development officer for Shore Bank in Detroit."
"In some cases, he said, he has worked with homeowners who saw a 20% drop in the appraised value of a house in just six months in metro Detroit suburbs."
"Interest rates are no longer at rock bottom."
"Lenders are edgy, especially in metro Detroit. 'In markets where housing prices are weak, we want to keep people from owing more than the house is worth,' said Tom Kelly, a spokesman for Chase in Chicago. 'Nobody wins if you make a loan that they can't pay back.'"
"'The bubble that fueled a lot of consumer spending just isn't there anymore,' said P. Brett Hammond, chief investment strategist for the TIAA-CREF."
"'We have things we'd like to do with our home, but we're not going to do any improvements right now because we don't want to take out a home equity,' said Kris Marcath of Leonard. She estimates that her home's value has fallen by $75,000 or more. She questions whether she could get $400,000 for the 2,700-square-foot home on 18 acres."