The Bursting Real Estate Bubble Is A Fact Of Life
The News & Observer reports from North Carolina. "Wendy Gilbert had high hopes for her University Park house. Buoyed by rapid sales and rising prices in the West Raleigh neighborhood, she and her husband paid $252,000 for the three-bedroom home in December. They planned for profit. They fixed it up and listed it in July for $429,000. It lingered unsold, even after a $14,000 price cut."
"'There were several people interested,' said Gilbert. 'But either they couldn't sell their house, or they couldn't get financing.'"
"So last month, she started courting another kind of house hunter: the renter. Gilbert is among a growing number of would-be sellers offering properties for rent, conceding to a glut of unsold homes and the prospect of cooling prices. 'We weren't planning to hold it for this long,' she said."
"The practice is creating a shadow market that masks the true inventory of unsold homes, which in the year that ended Sept. 30 climbed 22 percent to a four-year high of 17,929." "'You really have no idea of what supply will be hitting the market and at what time,' said analyst Brian Reece."
"This shadow is pressuring the rental market, because apartment owners had been expecting a surge of new business. There were 3,102 apartments built in the year that ended Sept. 30, according to the apartment association. That's 86 percent more than the annual average in the previous four years. About 3,000 units are under construction."
"'I don't really remember a time when our inventory has popped up like it has this year,' said Sharon Schovain in Raleigh, who has been managing rentals for 23 years."
"The new business comes from sellers who 'got disgusted with the soft sales market' and independent builders who have given up on selling some homes, turning to the rental market to soften the blow, she said. They are joining out-of-state investors who are 'buying up houses like crazy' in the Triangle, banking on the long-term prospect of rising values."
"'If you were living on the West Coast, imagine how cheap the real estate looks here,' Schovain said."
"At 5628 Keowee Way in northeast Raleigh, a 'for sale' sign and a 'for rent' sign compete for attention outside a three-bedroom home. Homeowner Mike Yoquelet expected the value of the five-year-old home to appreciate handsomely with the extension of Interstate 540. He paid $180,000 for the home in February 2006. He wants to sell it for $229,900 but would settle for a renter paying $1,295 a month."
"'At this point, I'm trying to do either so I can make my mortgage payment,' said Yoquelet, a broker at Northside Realty."
The Atlanta Journal Constitution from Georgia. "More than 6,800 properties in the 13 core counties of metro Atlanta were advertised for auction Tuesday — a record setting number, up 49 percent from the same month last year. From Gwinnett to Fulton to Bartow counties, an auctioneer reading from a sheet on courthouse steps became the public endpoint for private tales like the Smiths'."
"'We just wanted to find out how long we've got before we have to get out,' said Amy Smith's husband, who asked not to be identified."
"Georgia's foreclosure system rolls forward with the unemotional efficiency of a threshing machine mowing down wheat."
"At the Fulton County courthouse, seven criers from MR Default Services read out bids simultaneously. Each crier from that firm, which represented 596 properties in Fulton alone, was assigned a chunk of the alphabet based on the names of those in foreclosure."
"Dylon Ross, a veteran investor, was not shy about what he wanted. 'I'm not looking for great deals. Now we are looking for steals.'"
"In the previous weeks, Ross and his partners drove by maybe 300 houses. 'First thing, we have to make sure there really is a house there,' he said."
"Usually, the lender's bid went unanswered and the lenders took back the house, looking to sell it again down the road, almost assuredly at a large loss. Most properties up for foreclosure these days have little or no equity — almost 75 percent of the loans being foreclosed in Fulton were made since the start of 2005."
"Subprime loans are about 10 times more likely to fail than prime loans. 'This is a crisis,' says William Brennan, director of Atlanta Legal Aid's Home Defense Program for the last 19 years and one of the first consumer advocates to warn Congress of the coming meltdown."
"'In metro Atlanta, every month thousands of families are losing their homes to foreclosure. On the courthouse steps today, more than 6,000 homeowners were facing foreclosure,' says Brennan."
"Nessia Jones lives on a small pension and disability income in the DeKalb County home she's owned for 26 years. Combined, she and her daughter make $1,266 a month. Yet a mortgage broker doctored refinancing documents to reflect that Jones drew nearly $4,000 in Social Security disability income each month."
"'If I made that much money, I wouldn't have needed to refinance to repair my house,' says Jones. Instead of a single mortgage, Jones discovered later that the refinancing had saddled her with two mortgage loans and monthly payments of $1,500."
"Before the refinancing, Jones had a credit score of 700; now it's down to 400. 'I can't get credit from anyone now,' she said."
From ABC Action News in Florida. "Foreclosures are hitting every housing sector in the bay area, even high end zip codes are in trouble, creating opportunities for families to upsize or invest."
"Jamie Rand is an investor and hard money lender in Tampa who says he has bought and sold more than one thousand properties in the Bay area. Jamie sold off his inventory during the boom of 2005. He says there are good deals in desirable neighborhoods adding, 'between now and probably the end of 2008 you're going to have some ideal times for the picking.'"
"For example, in the Enclave at Citrus Park, zip code 33626...a prime neighborhood. says this four bedroom, two and a half bath, 25-hundred square foot home, was purchased by an investor for 382-thousand dollars in 2006. Now, its on the market for 280-thousand dollars, more than a 100-thousand dollar price drop. And the seller may deal for less."
"In the Carriage Point subdivision, a lot of investors came in here and got in trouble when the market turned so there are dozens of foreclosures. There are about 31 homes in foreclosure in this Gibsonton neighborhood alone."
"'That's the best thing that you can have, with the homes that the grass is up to your waist, with the holes and the graffiti, those are the kind of properties that I salivate over,' he said."
"But, Jamie also has a warning for investors who get too emotional about the property saying, 'people overpay, they buy a piece of property with the anticipation of appreciation, never do that, it's the biggest mistake especially a young rookie investor can make.'"
The University of Florida News. "Florida’s population growth slowed considerably last year as the housing boom went bust, but it remained relatively strong and likely will stay that way for the next few years, the latest estimates from the University of Florida show."
"'There have been a number of news articles lately focusing on the idea that population growth has fallen off the table top in Florida and practically come to a standstill, and that simply isn’t true,' said Stan Smith, director of the UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, who led the research."
"'The housing boom certainly contributed to Florida’s growth in those earlier years, and the housing bust contributed to the slowdown this last year,' he said. 'It’s much harder for people to sell their homes in New York, Ohio, Michigan or some other state and move to Florida.'"
The News Press from Florida. "First Home Builders of Fort Myers had 1,200 employees two years ago. As of last week, it is down to 50 on the payroll. That's 1,150 fewer people able to buy a car, finance a house, send their kids to college."
"The trickle-down is devastating to the community. The loss of buying power ultimately means there will be even more lost jobs in other businesses and industries. It is all a part of the bursting real estate bubble, a fact of life Southwest Florida must deal with by adjusting and surviving."
The Palm Beach Post. "Home builder WCI Communities said Wednesday it will cut 575 workers in six states, including about 30 in Palm Beach County. Two years ago, residential real estate was the high-octane fuel of Florida's economic engine. Now, it's the gunk gumming up the works."
"Statewide, the construction industry lost 22,300 jobs between September 2006 and September 2007, the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation said. And this year, for the first time since the 1992 recession, Florida has seen seven consecutive months of over-the-year declines in construction jobs."
"'The builders are cutting back because the last thing we need now is new housing,' said Antonio Villamil of Washington Economics Group in Coral Gables."
The Daily Business Review from Florida. "Miami-based mFm Construction’s financing offer is a new tactic to find buyers for three condominium projects it built in Little Havana west of downtown Miami."
"Developers like mFm are reacting to declining sales and the prospect of projects plagued with unsold homes. Some people are holding out in anticipation of prices dropping more than they have."
"'We have contracts that were signed in 2005 and 2006 at below-market prices, and still some buyers are having problems with their lenders,' said Daniel Kaskel, general counsel of Boca Raton-based E.B. Developers."
"Architect Osman Ramos said he is considering moving from Fort Lauderdale close to his job in Coral Gables. But he would rather wait to see if prices in Miami drop some more before considering mFm’s proposal."
"'This plan is good for the buyer, but prices are still high to buy now,' he said."
The Bradenton Herald from Florida. "With a record number of foreclosures facing real estate agents, it wasn't surprising that much of the focus of the Real Estate and Law Summit was helping them navigate the difficult environment."
"'Prices aren't where they were and that has reflected on the courthouse steps,' Michelle Gilbert told attendees Tuesday at the Sarasota Hyatt. 'The whole state of Florida is backed up.'"
"At the end of October, 307 foreclosure cases had been filed in Manatee County, bringing the year's total to 1,881, an all-time record."
"Gilbert's firm recently foreclosed on a $750,000 loan where the house is now appraised at $560,000. 'It's just amazing these loans were made,' Gilbert said."
"'I wish I could be a bearer of good news and tell you there is light at the end of the tunnel, but I can't,' said Doug Pollock, president and founder of Information Data Services. Pollock, who specializes in mortgage fraud and forgery, said the crisis was caused by the explosion of subprime loans and greed."
"'Mortgage lenders set the stage for what has happened,' Pollock said. 'Mortgage fraud is going to be an increasing caseload for attorneys and lenders because we're uncovering more of it.'"
"The industry, which helped keep the United States afloat in the post 9/11 confusion, has run out of time, Pollock said. 'The only way we're going to recover from this mess is for prices to return to 2003 levels,' Pollock said."
"As market values of homes and sales prices continue their descent, many homeowners have turned to short sales. Agents often end up having to settle for less commission for a sale that requires a lot more paperwork and red tape."
"'You have to decide if you like lemonade. Some people don't, some people do,' Golden Norris advised those considering joining the growing number of agents who are doing short sales."