Borrowers Did Not Plan For The Future In Florida
The Daily News reports from Florida. "The Daily News began tracking local foreclosures in August. Court records at that time showed that foreclosures in Okaloosa County had jumped by nearly 70 percent from 2005 to 2006 and are on pace to be about 83 percent higher in 2007 than in 2006. Santa Rosa and Walton counties also showed record numbers of mortgage foreclosures, far outpacing 2005 and 2006."
"'I don’t think we’ve reached the top as far as foreclosures,' said Shirley Parker, president of Parker Mortgage Services in Fort Walton Beach. 'I think it’ll continue probably through next year.'"
"Borrowers did not plan for the future, she added. 'You can regulate people all day long, but if they want something, they want it,' said Parker, who counseled many people out of buying more house than they could afford down the road. 'I’d say to them, 'At some point, this balloon is going to bust, and when it does, you won’t be able to afford this house note.'"
"One upside to the foreclosure crisis is the promise of some sweet deals in 2008. 'You’re going to see a $300,000 house … and a lender willing to take $200,000,' Parker said. 'You’re going to see a lot of good deals on investment property.'"
The Orlando Sentinel. "Florida's economy should hit its low point within the next three months and then begin a long, steady climb upward, according to the latest quarterly forecast from the University of Central Florida."
"'We see a dampening down of things going into the first part of 2008,' said said Sean Snaith, director of UCF's Institute for Economic Competitiveness and author of the quarterly Florida Forecast. 'But we're still in the [prediction] mode of a soft landing for the economy. The way we put it: 'The runway has lengthened for when we take off again.'"
"In his quarterly Florida forecast, Snaith made no predictions on when housing prices would return to mid-2006 levels. But he predicted that annual housing starts, after bottoming out in 2008, would return by 2010 to the same levels seen back at the start of the decade."
"'People have been predicting an apocalypse. I see more of rapture than an apocalypse,' he quipped. 'There will be some rough quarters to get through, but the long-range economic outlook is an upward trend for the region.'"
"Florida's population grew a measly 1.1 percent in the past year -- just a little bit faster than South Dakota and a little bit slower than Oklahoma, according to census figures released Thursday."
"The decline in the past year is largely the result of the housing slump and the mortgage crisis, said William Frey, a demographer with a Washington-based think tank."
"What happened to Florida is the same for other 'housing bubble' states such as California, Texas, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. Declining home values, foreclosures and the end of easy-credit mortgages put the brakes on people moving from state to state."
"'The bursting of the bubble means they can't sell their house in New York and move to Florida. The credit crunch means they can't buy a house in Florida,' Frey said."
"Orlando area complex owners put the brakes on the conversion-to-condos craze during the past year, and now the leasing side of the ledger is regaining a marketing advantage for them. RP Realty Partners, for example, decided in October against converting The Majestic of Downtown Baldwin Park to condominiums."
"Marcus & Millichap's recent third-quarter Apartment Research Market Update for the Orlando area found that 'supply and demand are still being realigned' because of the 'considerable number of condo conversions.' The overall market's vacancy rate is expected to be even higher."
"In the Pine Hills neighborhood northwest of downtown Orlando, the Misty Oaks apartment complex is offering two months' free rent for one-bedroom, one-bath units. That submarket is laden with apartments, and turnover in units is high."
"Ali Muhammad, dressed in a Santa outfit, has been waving a bright yellow sign with the two-month-free deal at Misty Oaks. The complex is 'also giving away a free iPod [digital music player] or $150 gift card. It's not on the sign,' Muhammad said. 'Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.'"
From Builder Online. "After closing its doors in April and failing to sell its remaining inventory, Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.-based Panitz Signature Homes has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection in the Jacksonville division of the Bankruptcy Court for the Middle District of Florida."
"Citing the current downturn in the housing market, the luxury builder is calling it quits after operating in Northeast Florida for 27 years. At a May 19 auction, the builder was unable to sell any of its 11 homes, 25 home sites, or 32 townhome sites."
The South Florida Business Journal. "Jorge Perez, CEO of condo developer the Related Group, is looking to create a fund to buy distressed units in South Florida's saturated condo market. Matt Gorson, president of Greenberg Traurig, the law firm that represents Related, confirmed Perez is considering it."
"'The strong and smart developers would be wise to create funds and acquire distressed assets,' Gorson said. 'The Related Group would be in the mix.'"
"'If he can purchase parts of a building or whole buildings for less than it would cost to build them, it's a smart move,' said Ron Shuffield, president of brokerage Esslinger Wooten Maxwell."
"Perez joining the vulture investor ranks may further chill an already cooling real estate market, where foreclosures are rising and Miami-Dade County is saddled with between 35 and 40 months of condo inventory."
"One unanswered question would be how Perez would deal with a potential conflict of interest if he ends up being the principal of a company negotiating to buy units at a discount from the Related Group."
"Peter Zalewski, a former South Florida Business Journal associate editor, said groups buying blocks of units want a minimum of 100 units and ownership of at least 60 percent of a building, so they can control the association and rental rules."
The Miami Herald. "The Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index says the South Florida region posted the worst decline of 20 major metropolitan areas it follows."
"But Florida Association of Realtors sales data say median prices for single-family houses in Miami-Dade and Broward remained virtually flat at around $354,000 since October 2006 even as the number of homes selling plummeted."
"'Wall Street does not understand real estate,' said veteran real estate analyst Michael Cannon, of the Case-Shiller index. Computer models, he said, can't possibly account for all the variables that affect a home's sale price or an overall real estate market. And the MLS that Realtors use accounts for only about 42 percent of the market, said Cannon."
"So what is happening out there? Cannon, whose firm analyzes property valuations for banks, developers and government, says prices are declining from the overvalued peaks seen between 2003 and 2005 in certain segments. But, 'overall, we have not seen any major decline.'"
"Homeowners who bought at the peak are probably losing money if they have to sell, but for the most part, homeowners are still ahead."
"'That's why I call it a rollback, not a crash,' Cannon said. 'If there was a crash, you'd see tremendous price discounts being offered. You see all these sales pitches, but overall you don't see sellers panicking.'"
"The average asking home price in Miami-Dade, says Ron Shuffield, president of one of the largest real estate brokerages in Miami-Dade and Broward, has dropped 44 percent since June 2005, from more than $1 million to about $600,000. The median selling price, he said, has fallen around 8 percent in that time. 'Our sellers are becoming very realistic,' Shuffield said."
From NBC 2 News. "The Standard and Poor's Home Price Index shows slashed prices and calls the state of the single family housing market 'grim.' But NBC2's Patrick Flanary found out, the Southwest Florida market may not be in as bad of shape as you think."
"If you take a look at the numbers over the last six years, Southwest Florida is doing OK. Some realtors say buyers are just fixated on the boom we saw two years ago."
"Home prices are falling this winter, but Realtor Dick Truax says it's not enough to attract buyers with the baggage they own up north. 'They just can't get rid of it up there. And they know there's a great bargain down here, but it's getting rid of the inventory they have there,' said Truax."
"He calls this year a roller-coaster ride in Lehigh Acres and he's struggling to sell homes in the Majestic Golf Club. 'I was going weeks where I wasn't getting a single hit,' said Truax."
The News Press. "Housing permits continue to spiral in the wrong direction for builders, real estate agents and those impacted by the construction industry."
"On its current pace, Cape Coral will issue fewer new single family home permits this month than it did during a record November, when only 12 were issued. Through Wednesday, only 5 permits have been issued for new single family homes."
"Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach also are not experiencing any kind of a holiday boost. Only 32 permits had been issued as of 4 p.m. Wednesday. In November, 60 were issued, compared to 357 in November 2006."
"The declines, even for a slow time, are significant when compared to past Decembers. In December 2006, 90 permits were issued in the Cape, while 403 were issued in December 2005. The record is 858 for March 2005."
"'We keep thinking it can’t get any lower, and every month it gets lower,' said Cape Coral spokesperson Connie Barron. 'We just have to cross our fingers and know we have to get through this. It is just uncomfortable in the waiting room.'"
"The continued decline continues to surprise those in the industry. 'I have never seen things get this low,' said Sal La Spia, owner of European Construction of Southwest Florida."
"La Spia has been in business in Cape Coral for six years, he said, through the most recent boom and bust. After building reached a zenith in 2004 and 2005, La Spia said he expected it to slow eventually, but he never expected this. 'Property went up faster here than anywhere else, and then it went down faster,' he said."
"District 3 Councilman Bill Deile said the numbers were distressing. 'That’s virtually down to zero,' he said."
"Deile figured the bust was coming in part because so many people in recent years have moved into homes they could not afford. La Spia agreed, citing high foreclosure numbers and a large inventory of unoccupied homes on the market today."
"In the past year, actions have been filed on a more than 11,700 Lee County foreclosures."
"Russell Weyer, a senior associate at Fishkind and Associates based out of Naples, said Cape Coral is suffering from an excess inventory, and doesn’t expect that probably to disappear overnight. 'It won’t get absorbed overnight,' Weyer said. 'I would say there is about three years of inventory to work through.'"
"He said smart investors can weather the slump. 'Now is not the time to put your house on the market unless you are in for a desperate sale,' Weyer said."