Four Years Of Stupid
The Billings Gazette reports from Montana. "Michael Grover, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said Montana has fewer foreclosures and fewer high-cost loans than the national average. But he said more rural areas face pressures because of high-cost loans, which is a surprising new turn. Grover pointed to a map that showed counties like Fergus, Powder River, Judith Basin and Daniels. In those rural counties, more than 30 percent of home loans are high-cost loans."
"Others already see problems. Sheila Rice, from the Montana Homeownership Network, said the number of people seeking help from her organization because of late home payments has jumped tenfold just this year."
"'In Billings alone in 2006, there were 1,200 high-priced loans,' she said. 'Statistics show that 15 percent go into foreclosure (eventually).'"
The Missoulian from Montana. "Luke and Jennifer St. Claire and their 13-year-old daughter rented an apartment in July of 2005. But with the birth of their twin boys in March 2006 and a new pregnancy shortly thereafter, the family realized they would need more space and privacy than the apartment could provide."
"Feeling pressure to find a home quickly, the St. Claires got a subprime loan and moved into a modest home on the south side of Missoula."
"A year and a half later, that mortgage, as well as rising food, fuel and utility costs, are squeezing the family and making ends harder and harder to meet."
"According to Jennifer, their mortgage payments are slated to go up by $400 a month in February 2008 - to $1,800. 'We haven't a clue where that extra money is going to come from,' she said. 'We're hoping to refinance or sell.'"
The Times News from Idaho. "Some say it was only a matter of time. The affects of a nationwide housing slump and growing credit problems have reached south-central Idaho."
"Home sales have declined 19 percent in Twin Falls County, according to a report from the Greater Twin Falls Association of Realtors. According to a report of building permits issued by Twin Falls County, building officials approved only 240 permits for single-family homes as of Nov. 30 compared to 535 during the same month last year - a decline of about 55 percent."
"Real estate brokers and home builders interviewed by the Times-News denied a slump in the housing market, and did not want to answer further questions about the issue."
"But some brokers did say that much of the decline is due to homeowners in other states, who cannot escape higher mortgage rates in order to buy a more affordable home in Idaho."
The Idaho Stateman. "Believe it or not, there is still affordable housing to be had in Ada County. Diana Cavigllano, a Realtor in Boise, says there were 83 homes for sale Tuesday in Boise and Meridian with price tags below $150,000."
"Most of the properties priced below $150,000 are in foreclosure, or have had their prices slashed by owners who have seen their properties languish on the market because of the market downturn, Cavigllano said."
"A 'shocking number' of the homes are vacant, which gives the buyer leverage because the owner has moved and is eager to sell to avoid having to pay mortgages, she said."
"Some of the homes are fixer-uppers. But other are already in livable condition. 'These homes are just sitting there,' she said."
"A five-bedroom, 1-1/2-half bath, 1,482-square-foot home (was) originally priced at $189,900. After 136 days on the market, the owner will now take $147,900. A two-bedroom home on the Boise Bench was cut from $149,000 to $143,900 after just 19 days on the market."
"Cavigllano said that for the first time in a long while, some new homes are being built and sold for less than $150,000. At the Charter Pointe subdivision, Hubble Home plans to build three homes priced at $149,990. 'They haven't been built yet, so you can go out there and start picking out your colors,' Cavigllano said."
"Canyon County offers a much larger choice of low-cost homes. Associate broker Shaun Tracy said 582 Canyon County homes are priced at or below $150,000."
The Mail Tribune from Oregon. "Brenda Potvin sold insurance for the better part of two decades before jumping into the white-hot real estate market three years ago."
"'It sounded good at the time,' says Potvin."
"Then the real estate market turned cold, and the Medford woman began looking for other options. When the opportunity came to watch her 11-week-old granddaughter while her son was away, she decided it was time to leave real estate."
"Potvin is one of a rapidly growing number of real estate agents who are deactivating their licenses or letting them expire during the market lull. The number of local real estate agents surged during a four-year period beginning in 2002, growing by nearly 50 percent before cresting in mid-2006."
"'I was one of the lucky ones, because I was still doing good business,' Potvin says. 'I know agents didn't make a penny this year.'"
"Leo Ford worked the local real estate market for 11 years, until recently when he moved to Maui. He says the rapid appreciation that drew so many agents into the market masked reality."
"'I called it four years of stupid, because sellers and buyers drove prices so high,' he says. 'I saw it coming and so did the other long-timers. We expected this to happen and prepared. The newbies were having a ball signing papers and making 20 to 30 grand in a couple of months. Right now, the best thing is for an agent to stay out unless they've been around long enough to get repeat business.'"
The Bend Bulletin from Oregon. "The Central Oregon Business Index stumbled in the third quarter of 2007. The index’s quarterly year-over-year declines illustrate that the region’s economy is quickly cooling after riding the wave of the red-hot housing market of 2005 to 2006, said Tim Duy, adjunct assistant professor of economics at the University of Oregon and the study’s author."
"Additionally, that market may remain weak even after it hits bottom, Duy said. 'The housing market is just a mess,' Duy said. 'I’ve been saying for a while that these are the two toughest quarters — the fourth quarter 2007 and the first quarter of 2008 — we have to get through without any other major negative shock (to the market).'"
"'Talking to mortgage brokers, their business is fundamentally changed because of the lack of access to capital — they just can’t make the types of mortgages they’ve made before and I think the financing just is not going to be there next year,' Duy said. 'There’s no housing ATM anymore.'"
"The housing market is falling faster and faster, Duy said. Housing units sold in the region fell again to a monthly average of 225 homes, compared with 305 in the third quarter of 2006. September was especially bad with 153 homes sold compared with 214 in September 2006, Duy said, reflecting the national tightening of credit in the home mortgage market."
"Residential building permits for new construction, however, have dropped sharply, Duy said, to a monthly average of 82 permits. In the first quarter of 2007, the index tracked 199 new building permits in Deschutes County. The third quarter of 2005 saw a monthly average of 391 permits."
"Woodhill Homes in Bend is one business shackled to housing. The builder this year has logged 75 percent fewer closings and new-home starts compared with the boom years of 2005 and 2006, said owner Jay Campbell."
"'We’ve in turn focused on the market but also on the business and ways in which we can do things better and improve our systems,' he said. 'All that said, and you’ll probably hear this from every builder: There has never been a better time to buy a house.'"
Marketplace reports from Oregon. "With home prices dropping all over the country, how do you choose the right time to buy? Ethan Lindsey walks us through his home buying experience in Bend, Oregon. He's a reporter for Oregon Public Broadcasting in Bend. That city tripled its population over the last 15 years. Home prices rose in tandem."
"Kent Chapple owns a coffee shop in town and a home as well. He says homebuyers here read their property prices like the stock pages."
"Kent Chapple: I do pay attention to it but I knew that it was overvalued. And all my neighbors were all excited about how our houses had increased in value. But it was kind of funny to me, because where you gonna move to, right? Everything has increased. So, if my house is worth more but I can't afford to buy a new house, then what difference does it make, you know?"
"Realtor Becky Breeze doesn't have a bad word to say about Bend. To her, the home prices mean the market is bright. But, even she sees some dark clouds on the horizon."
"Breeze: The only problem is that so many agents went into the business and so many mortgage brokers went into the business during that little upside period that there's not enough to support that many people. We wish some our houses would sell faster, absolutely."
"At several open houses, the seller started to haggle with me the moment I walked in the door. In the past few months, I've walked through 30 or so homes in my price range. Of those, fewer than five have sold."
"Dawn Dwyer is a realtor in town. Dwyer says that in 2005, many of the homes I've looked at would have been swamped with multiple offers on the day they were listed and furious bidding wars broke out over these homes."
"My experience has been the opposite. In my hunt, I fell in love with a two-bedroom bungalow. When I first saw the house, it had been on the market for more than a month. I finally got it for $20,000 less than the price on the sign out front."
"Dwyer: It's the true story of what it's like to be in a buyer's market and what it's like to be in a seller's. In that fast a time, a few years, to see that much of a difference, it's amazing. Yeah, you're really lucky."
"As a whole, the city probably isn't so happy. Real estate is the third-largest employer in Bend. It pays the salaries of 15 percent of working residents. That scares some economists who say if the housing market goes, so could the local economy."
"That scares me, too. Maybe this isn't the time to be buying that first home."
The Columbian from Washington. "Who could blame the average Clark County homeowner for being confused about the local housing market? With reports rolling in nearly every day from news organizations, industry groups and national economic agencies, it's darn difficult to make sense of the numbers."
"There are two things to remember is evaluating all this: Clark County is a unique housing market separate from Portland. What is going on here is different than what's happening across the river or elsewhere in the region or nation."
"News about this market is more timely than most national and regional reports. So while you might read that Portland-Vancouver housing prices have shown little decline through the third quarter ending Sept. 30, we know that in October, the median price of homes sold in Clark County was down 7.5 percent from 2006 as sellers began to adjust prices to unload property."
"Metrowide, there's an 8.4-month inventory of new and preowned homes for sale as compared with a much larger 11.4-month supply in Clark County, according to RMLS."
"Because our market is unique, The Columbian business news section tends to play down national housing news or at least run a 'local angle.' Bottom line: A psychological standoff continues in Clark County between buyers who think house prices should be dropping on weaker sales and sellers who are convinced their homes are not overvalued. If mortgage rates drop, buying should pick up, say the experts."
"Have we got it all straight?"