Some Perception That Prices Haven't Hit Rock Bottom
The News Journal reports from Florida. "More than 900 area homeowners were notified last month they could lose their properties as local foreclosure activity continued at nearly triple last year's level. The new monthly numbers from RealtyTrac place Volusia and Flagler counties among the more heavily distressed areas of the nation."
"One homeowner trying hard not to become another statistic is Dean Murphy, who just knocked $17,000 off the asking price for his three-bedroom property in Ormond Beach. Murphy, who lives in DeLand, said he tried to sell the home for two years at $199,000, but now has lowered the price to $182,000, just enough to cover his two mortgages."
"'We had it rented for a while but now we're losing almost $1,000 a month on it,' Murphy said. 'It's not in foreclosure yet and if we can sell it in the next month or so, we may be OK. But we're still going to take a bath on it because we put a lot into it.'"
The Sun Herald. "Southwest Florida's circuit courts are reporting foreclosures at triple their 2006 levels and actually getting momentum as 2007 draws to a close. For example, the Charlotte County Clerk of the Circuit Court reports 1,992 foreclosure filings compared with 664 in 2006."
"With Charlotte County sale prices down 10 percent or more from 2006 levels...the fact that Charlotte County has been built on retirement income doesn't help either. Jobs in home construction, mainly for retirees, have become scarce."
"This leads local attorney Kevin Russell to conclude that 'next summer is going to be a test of will for a lot of us ... we're at ground zero in Port Charlotte and North Port for a lot of what's going on.'"
"Following Hurricane Charley in August, 2004, speculators descended on storm-ravaged neighborhoods, buying up houses in the expectation that any structurally sound dwelling would fetch top dollar during an anticipated long recovery."
"Roger Miller, attorney with the Farr law firm in Punta Gorda, said the vast majority of the 30-some foreclosures currently on his desk are investment deals gone bad."
The St Petersburg Times. "The National Association of Home Builders released a tentatively optimistic report Thursday: New home construction should begin a slow recovery in the summer of 2008."
"Unless you live and work in Florida."
"Association chief economist David Seiders said the Sunshine State's housing market was so 'grossly overheated' that it will require a 'long workout period' to stabilize."
"He saved his harshest assessment for the state's condo market. The glut is so bad in the Tampa Bay area, it would take close to three years, at the current sales pace, to clear away the inventory."
"Home sales indexes tracking new home construction have fallen to a 22-year low, Seiders said. New-home builders report fewer cancellations as speculators and dabblers flee the market."
"'It's hard to be thrilled when it's still sitting at a record low,' Seiders said."
The Palm Beach Post. "The housing market won't 'hit bottom' until 2009 - a year later than previously predicted, the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders said Thursday."
"Rather than bringing an end to the worst housing slump in 16 years, 2008 will simply be 'another down year,' Chief Economist David Seiders told reporters and analysts."
"'We really are in a danger zone,' Seiders said. 'We'll be looking at further erosion in house values in 2008 and hit bottom in 2009.'"
"'The essential story here,' Seiders said, 'is a major run-up in unsold inventory during the second half of 2005, through 2006 and into 2007. There are currently 2.1 million vacant homes for sale on the market,' he added, 'with 700,000 being excess compared to more normal times.'"
"Subprime lenders went belly-up, Seiders said, 'and it cascaded down from there.'"
"Nationwide, home prices peaked in 2005, he said. In Palm Beach County, they peaked in November 2005, when the median price of an existing single-family home was $421,500, the Florida Association of Realtors says."
"U.S. home prices fell at an annualized rate of 7 percent in the third quarter of this year, Seiders said, 'and there's little doubt that the fourth quarter will be down further.'"
"Seiders acknowledged that his estimates were dependent on the success of government attempts to help homeowners whose monthly subprime mortgage payments were due to jump."
"If those 800,000 homes go back on the market, 'we're in deeper trouble,' Seiders said."
The Ledger. "Polk County home builders had a lean November, pulling their lowest permit total for the month since 2000. It marked the 21st consecutive month of annual declines in permitting activity, and was the lowest November figure since 221 in 2000."
"'Right now the builders aren't adding to inventory when they have existing inventories to move. That's why you're seeing these permits down,' said Joel Adams, executive VP of Lakeland-based Highland Homes."
"Permits fell in nearly every city. Auburndale dropped to one from 18 a year ago, while Bartow had just three in November versus 14 last year."
"Adams said he expects 2008 to be another tough year for most in the industry."
"'There could be some perception among buyers that prices haven't hit rock bottom. I'm not sure that's the case. Over this past year new home builders have probably done all the price cutting they can,' he said. 'It's going to take time to chew up this unsold inventory and get the equilibrium back in, and I think it's going to take most of 2008 to do that.'"
The Bradenton Herald. "Some local builders think the Manatee-Sarasota market is already looking up. Auctions, foreclosures, short sales, vulture funds and discounted new home prices are part of the reason the move is in a positive direction, they said."
"'The bottom has been established,' said Jerry Blumberg, co-owner of Gibraltar Homes."
"John Cannon Homes, along with Gibraltar Homes and other local builders, are approaching 2008 like a normal year, with new models already under construction and set to open in the new year."
"'I don't think it's going to be a boom year, but it will be healthy,' Blumberg said. 'We were the first up, the first to bottom and the first to climb back.'"
The News Press. "Fallout from the housing downturn and an accounting charge helped Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.’s fiscal fourth-quarter loss nearly quadruple."
"Hovnanian operates in Lee County as First Home Builders, whose assets Hovnanian bought in August 2005 for an undisclosed amount. The company has been particularly hard hit in Lee County, where it is now largely out of business."
"It has a skeleton crew of about 50 employees, down from nearly 1,200 during the height of the boom in late 2005."
"On Nov. 5, Hovnanian sold 812 lots in Cape Coral to Ocala-based Deltona Corp. for $16.2 million. The company’s Lehigh Acres lots are also for sale."
"Two of the main lenders for First Homes construction loans are also in financial trouble: Colorado-based Norlarco Credit Union and Michigan-based Huron River Area Credit Union were taken over by the National Credit Union Administration because of bad debt due in part to their construction loans for First Home customers."
"Hovnanian also faces lawsuits including a federal class action filed May 30 in Fort Myers by would-be buyers claims they were duped by First Home, the Gates D'Alessandro & Woodyard real estate agency and various lenders into financing houses at inflated prices with promises of a 14 percent return on their money."
"The new-home building crunch has made a harsh impact, on Lee County impact fees. Impact fees are a one-time bill on new construction to defray the cost of providing and expanding services and facilities that benefit new development."
"In the 2005 fiscal year the parks department collected $10.2 million for community parks, in 2006 it was $9.4 million. The recent market crash crushed the impact fees to just $3.5 million in the 2007 fiscal year, which ran from October 2006 to September."
"'I think overall it's unwelcome,' said John Yarbrough, parks and recreation director. 'At the same time it gives us a chance to refocus, reprioritize and not that we don't do that, but make sure our priorities are where they should be with the projects.'"
"Single-family home permits in unincorporated Lee, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach have nosedived since fiscal year 2005 when 20,578 were pulled. In 2006 there were 17,141 and in the most recent fiscal year, 6,572...a 67 percent decline."
"'Our major funding source is tied to building permits, so that is the risk we run,' said Dave Loveland, planning manager for Lee Department of Transportation. 'The plus side is we are seeing bids come in less than our budgeted amount.'"
"The market turn has made construction companies eager for work, and they have become more competitive and are offering lower bids. In November, Posen Construction of Michigan's bid on the $25 million Summerlin widening, came in $13 million under the county's budget."
"On Wednesday, the low bid for a widening project for Plantation Road expected to cost as much as $7.5 million came in at $4 million. 'The cash is coming in less, but the bids are lower,' Loveland said."
"Michael Reitmann, executive VP of the Lee Building Industry Association, said the downturn should make the county consider other ways to generate revenue. 'We need to get a handle on not just allowing impact fees to pay for infrastructure,' he said."
"The impact fees are deterring the building industry from pulling the permits and not to expect the new housing market to kick up anytime soon, he said. 'We've got to get rid of the inventory because it doesn't make any business sense to start building if you got homes out there.'"