The Slap Heard Round The World
The Erie Times News reports from Pennsylvania. "Month-to-month comparisons between 2006 and 2007 show the number of properties sold has been down seven months and up four months so far this year. Figures show that 376 properties changed hands during November in Erie County. That's a decrease of 8.5 percent from the 411 sold during November 2006. 'The housing situation in Erie continues to get worse,' Realtor Dennis Weed wrote."
"Like other local real estate agents, Mary Huffman, president of the Greater Erie County Board of Realtors, says the much-publicized problems of the housing market are largely someone else's problem. But what about September, when the number of properties sold dipped 23 percent from the previous September?"
"'That's real estate for you,' she said. 'It's nothing new. There's no reason to panic.'"
"Much of the decline in total home sales can be explained by the people who are no longer in the market. Toby Froehlich, president of Coldwell Banker Select Realtors, said, 'We are back to needing three things to buy a house: good credit, a little bit of your own money and some verifiable employment. A year ago, people could buy without those three things.'"
The Baltimore Sun from Maryland. "Squeezed by the sharp downturn in the housing market, one of the nation's largest homebuilders has sold the bulk of a luxury townhouse development in Baltimore's Federal Hill to a local developer who immediately cut prices about 20 percent."
"Lennar Corp. sold 22 homes in the 26-unit Federal Place development off Key Highway to Terra Nova Ventures. Terra Nova principal David F. Tufaro said the deal allowed the new owner to set prices it felt were more in tune with the current market."
"'It turns out that Lennar was making a corporate decision, not limited to Baltimore, to reduce their inventory and improve their balance sheet,' said Tufaro. 'At the right price, houses will sell. The market has not fully reflected that because sellers have not reduced their prices.'"
"Lennar, one of the nation's largest builders, had completed the first of the four-story, two-car garage homes in the spring, with some units priced at more than $1 million, said Cynthia B. Conklin, a partner at Yerman, Witman, Gaines & Garceau Realty, which brokered the sale and is handling marketing."
"None of the homes sold until November, when four that had been priced at $795,000 sold for $695,000 or just above, with closing cost help, she said."
"Under its new ownership, Federal Place homes start at $695,000, with the average price in the low $700,000 range. The priciest home, used as the model, had been on the market for $1.25 million and is now priced at $995,000."
"'They were thinking they were going to get over $1 million for all these houses that came equipped with an elevator, granite, the finest appliances and grills on the deck,' Conklin said. 'They were not having great success.'"
"Builders caught in the housing slowdown have had to halt construction or reduce prices. 'In many cases, it makes sense to sell everything at one time and move on,' said Robert L. Merbler Jr., another partner at Yerman, Witman, Gaines. 'I think it's something you're going to see more of.'"
From Virginia Business Magazine. "Homebuilder Louis Genuario Jr. saw the warning signs early. By summer 2005, he picked up on one of the first hints that America’s booming residential housing market was starting to wobble like some shaky house of cards."
"So Genuario prepared for a slowdown. In early 2006, he pruned the company’s staff from 22 to 12 employees. That year he built half as many homes as the 20 constructed in 2004. In 2007, Genuario built even fewer, six homes. 'This is classic economics,' says Genuario. 'This is the market correcting itself.'"
"Genuario is one of the lucky ones; he expects to break even this year. 'No more than that,' he says. 'Simply put, our cash flow has been meager, so we’ve been living off lines of credit and money we put in the bank off previous years’ profits.'"
"For now, new developments are on hold, and Genuario will wait and see what happens to the market before he finalizes plans for 2008."
"October saw two projects in Virginia slide into lending limbo. Major construction on the 34-story Granby Tower, a luxury condominium project in downtown Norfolk, stopped in September when the developer’s financing fell through."
"David H. Downs, a real estate professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, refers to the subprime mortgage mess as 'the slap heard round the world. … It will be felt in the U.S. and the commonwealth of Virginia...We’re far from knowing how long this slap will reverberate.'"
"Like other states, Virginia is seeing an uptick in foreclosure filings. Compared with the number of filings in the third quarter of 2006, Virginia’s rate shot up dramatically — by 489 percent."
"Mike Toalson, executive VP of the Home Builders Association of Virginia, noted a 38 percent drop in the number of new homes being built in the past two years. 'In 2005, at the height of the boom, we were producing 49,000 single-family, detached houses across the state,' he says. 'In 2006 the number slumped to 37,000. This year, the level of new houses forecast to be produced across the state is 30,000.'"
"Rich Napier, president of Richmond-based Napier Signature Homes and president of the Home Builders Association of Virginia, has felt the pinch. His company, which builds custom homes priced from $1.2 million to $2.5 million as well as spec homes for around $1 million, built seven homes in 2006, about an average number."
"In 2007, Napier has built only five. He also has two spec houses on the market. 'If I sold the spec houses and finish up another one, I’d have one of my better years,' says Napier. 'But the market doesn’t look good for them to sell. We’ll do well with the five.'"
"Plus, he’s worried about next year. 'I’ve only signed two contracts to build in 2008.'"
"A Northern Virginia couple had been toying with the idea of buying a second home at Wintergreen Resort in Virginia’s Blue Ridge Mountains. So when a three-bedroom home came on the market for $325,000 this year, they scrambled off the fence. The couple hopes to buy the property for $274,000, the lowest price for a detached home in Wintergreen in the last eight months."
"'Since September, we’ve seen a lot of people who have been waiting on the fence for two or three years,' says Hunter Lynn of Wintergreen Real Estate Co. When home sales were booming several years ago, some people were scared to get in the market, 'because it was so crazy,' recalls Lynn. 'Now they feel more in control.'"
"At Homestead Preserve in Bath County, sales slowed this year, compared with the first year of sales in 2006. Overall, about 150 of the community’s 450 home sites have sold, including 11 this year. 'It has slowed down,' says Penny Peery, a marketing official for Homestead Preserve. 'The problem is just getting people to make the final commitment, because the market is so unsure.'"
"Steve Crandall and other builders remain optimistic that another flurry of building is around the corner. After buyers snap up the deals created by the overbuilding of the last four years, boomers will still be looking for a comfy place to land."
"'Buyers are still there,' says Crandall. It could be two months, he says; it could be six. 'It’s an evolution.'"
The News & Courier from Virginia. "The contracting world rises early - particularly here in Page County, at least an hour's drive from construction jobs in Northern Virginia and D.C. metro area."
"At 5 a.m., Joe Thomas sits inside the store keeping his wife, who works the early shift at Hope Mills, company. In busier times, this and other stores throughout the county did brisk business with the early crowd headed north."
"But the housing boom's gone bust and the early crowd's gone thin; over the next hour, just a handful of construction workers stop in."
"Thomas, the VP of JLM Construction, is one of the many local contractors who spent much of his career commuting as far as Annapolis, Md. for work. Lately, he's been getting calls every day from people looking for some sort of construction work."
"'They're gettin' laid off in the city because there ain't any work goin' on, and they want to know if we're hiring,' he said."
"But he isn't hiring. The opposite, actually - Thomas recently laid off seven of his crew, which was 16 strong just last summer."
"'If you've got a job, you better be hanging onto it,' said Vernon Hartless, a 37-year construction veteran. He's among the few who stop at the store on the way to work. 'This is the worst it's been for a long time. The sad part is, I don't see any improvement.'"
"Last month, the U.S. Department of Commerce released figures showing that nationwide construction of single-family homes has fallen to its lowest rate since October 1991, according to an Associated Press report. While that trend's regional impact appeared first and most noticeably in Northern Virginia, new development in Page County has been affected as well."
"'Right now, we have none,' said Stanley Town Manager Terry Petit."
"That's a dramatic change from two years ago, when plans for 700 housing units in and around Stanley existed on paper, Petit said."
"In Luray, work is continuing on several large developments that have been in progress for some time. Final plans for a first phase of the 500-home Luray Heights development are expected next month."
"Still, new inquiries from people interested in local development opportunities have all but vanished, according to Town Planner Ligon Webb. A year ago, the town received four or five such inquiries a week, Webb said."
"'This is the worst I've seen the construction market,' said Mike Knight, a co-owner of Knight and Lucas Construction with 25 years experience in the business."
"Nancy Keyser-Bryant, a real estate agent in Luray and member of the Massanutten Area Association of Realtors, said that times have been tough. 'Some of the agents are dropping out because they're not making [money] in real estate,' she said."
"Keyser-Bryant began working in real estate in the early 1980s. The market then, with interest rates up to 20 percent, was even worse than it is today, she said. The real estate market is always changing, she added, but this slump is unusual."
"'This is the first cycle I've seen where interest rates are low and the market is really slow,' Keyser-Bryant said."
"'I think that [affordable housing] is where you need to be in this area in order to keep putting out houses,' said Doug Rudolph, a Shenandoah contractor and chair of the town planning commission."
"And therein may lie one of the positive aspects of an otherwise grim story: If demand for expensive houses drops, perhaps there's an increased incentive to build smaller homes for smaller budgets."