A Massive Perception Of A Market In Freefall
The Courier News reports from New Jersey. "Business is brisk these days at the Somerset County Sheriff's Office. Somerset Court Sheriff Frank Provenzano said the number of foreclosures increased by close to 500 in Somerset County from 2006 to 2007. The number of foreclosures recorded in the first nine months of 2007 exceeded the total number of foreclosures for 2006 in Middlesex and Union counties."
"Lee Caprarola, a sales manager with Wells Fargo Home Mortgage in Somerville, said the spike in foreclosures was widely scattered across different economic strata. 'Some number of foreclosures are going to occur, good times and bad, but it's many, many more now than in the past several years,' Caprarola said."
"Much of the trend was caused by people taking mortgages that they could not afford after payment adjustments, he said. 'There are people with equity in their homes who we could have done a loan two years ago that we can't anymore, and I don't mean just Wells Fargo -- I mean any lender,' Caprarola said."
"A small group of regulars attends the auctions, Provenzano said. Most of the buyers are representatives of banks and mortgage companies that hold the loans and can obtain the property for a minimum bid of $100."
"For example, on Nov. 27 U.S. Bank Association, the parent company of U.S. Bank, the sixth largest commercial bank in the United States, bought a 0.56-acre property in Green Brook at a sheriff's sale for the minimum bid of $100."
"U.S. Bank Association had a $982,225.81 mortgage on the property, which was bought in 1998 for $396,889 and was assessed in 2006 at $716,200 according to Gannett NJ figures. To get clear title to the property, U.S. Bank Association must satisfy any liens on the property, plus back property taxes of $7,753."
"On Nov. 7, Commerce Bank bought a one-acre property on Old York Road in Branchburg for $100. The single-family home was bought in 1995 for $235,000 and had a 2006 assessment of $513,700. The defaulted loan from Commerce Bank was for $1,564,165."
From Newsday in New York. "When Allan Press started looking for a new home in the spring, he was approved for a $561,000 mortgage at a 6 percent interest rate. In late June, he and his wife found a five-bedroom home in Miller Place that they liked. But as they waited to close, they saw interest rates on the kind of mortgage they needed - a jumbo loan, which is for more than $417,000 - soar as the mortgage crisis unfolded."
"It wasn't long before jumbo rates reached 8 percent, which would have translated into a $4,600 monthly payment, far above the $3,000 the couple thought they'd be paying."
"In August, fearing rates would continue to rise, the couple locked in a 67/8 percent rate, which required them to pay points totaling $10,000. 'I didn't want to put that much of our salaries to the mortgage,' said Press, an operations manager for a Wall Street brokerage firm. 'After paying insurance and bills, I'd have nothing left to live on.'"
"After making a 5 percent down payment, the couple is paying $3,900 a month."
"Since Long Island home prices are among the highest in the nation, borrowers here are feeling the fallout - especially in Nassau, where the median closing price of $461,500 is in jumbo territory, experts said."
"'There are a lot of people who are holding back on purchases,' said Paul Schwartz, a certified mortgage planning specialist in Woodbury. 'People are waiting to accumulate bigger down payments.'"
The Times Union from New York. "The cost of buying a house in the Capital Region has outpaced income growth during much of the decade, making homeownership a struggle for many first-time buyers."
"In Albany County, for example, median household income grew by 19 percent from 1999 to 2006, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. During the same period, the median sale price of a single-family home in the county jumped 76 percent."
"The trend was more severe in Saratoga County, where median income grew 16 percent while the median home price rose 98 percent."
"Economists had warned the trend could not hold. And it hasn't. 'We knew that you couldn't support the rates of appreciation we've seen for the last three or four years,' said James Ader, president of GCAR, a Colonie-based trade group. 'Or pretty soon, nobody could afford to buy a house.'"
"But even if home prices stabilized last year, the effects of the earlier price run-up may have been manifest: RealtyTrac says the 1,125 foreclosure filings in the Capital Region through the first nine months of the year were more than double the number for all of 2006."
"Kirsten Keefe, the Albany-based executive director of Americans for Fairness in Lending, said it's unclear if people borrowed under exotic mortgages because rising housing costs left them no choice or if housing costs rose dramatically because such mortgages became widely available."
"'It's the age-old chicken-or-the-egg question,' she said."
The Connecticut Post. "Connecticut homes kept their value in 2007. Prices dropped for many Connecticut homes in 2007. Prices were stable, except for pockets of the market. It took longer to sell a home in 2007. Some homes flew off the market. Sales are languishing."
"Pick whichever statement strikes a chord with you, because they're all part of the picture that is the Connecticut housing market these days."
"In cities and towns in which prices are off the peaks, the median is still generally higher than 2004 levels. A lack of sales at the lower end of the spectrum can drive up the median, even if fewer houses are selling, said Vincent Valvo, group publisher at The Warren Group."
"Nationally, the housing market started heating up in the late 1990s and early 2000, thanks in part to the high-tech boom, Valvo said. Realtor Bob Stone in Fairfield remembers the market heating up around here in the mid-to-late 1990s."
"'The prices really went crazy I would say 2004, 2005 and 2006,' Stone said."
"A lot of people — and not just retirees — cashed out, he said, and moved south. There's still plenty of money to be made, especially for people who have owned their houses for more than a couple of years."
"'The prices now are basically 2004 prices,' Stone said. But, 'the time on market has definitely increased.'"
"Valvo cautions against believing everything that is said about the state of the housing market. 'Some of it is real,' he said of the downturn. However, 'some is a massive perception [of a] market in freefall.'"
"But around here, some bought duplexes and triplexes in hopes of flipping, Valvo said. 'In particular, the people who were investing in the small multifamilies are getting burned.'"
"There's also the possibility homebuyers will believe the bargains should be better than they are, Valvo said. Buyers putting off purchases could drive prices down, he said."
The Cape Cod Times from Massachusetts. "The Cape Cod real estate market ended 2007 on a negative note, with sales volume in December down sharply from the previous year and foreclosures continuing at levels unseen in more than a decade, according to numbers from the Barnstable County Registry of Deeds."
"'(Volume) was off significantly from a year ago and I am not entirely sure why,' said Register John Meade. 'Hopefully it's an aberration.'"
"The registry report offers the first snapshot of the region's real estate market at the end of a year in which slumping sales, sagging pricing and soaring foreclosure were headline news. Last month, 428 property transactions were recorded by the registry, down more than 20 percent when compared with the December 2006 total of 538 sales."
"The median sales price was also down last month, falling to $329,000, the lowest value in seven months. In December 2006, the median price was $350,000."
"The 29 foreclosures recorded in December brought the year's total to 272, more than three times as many foreclosures as were completed in 2006."
"Median sales value for 2007 was $345,000, down 5.5 percent from the previous year's median of $365,000. These values, however, may not fully represent the state of the market, said Bill Ryan, a real estate agent in Hyannis. The registry numbers reflect all commercial and residential property sales valued above $50,000, including foreclosures, which generally have lower sales values than traditional sales."
"In addition, many homeowners had to sell their property for far less than they bought it to avoid foreclosure. 'Those are forced sales — they are not people who wanted to sell, they are not people who chose to sell,' Ryan said."
"Overall, the sales volume on the Cape and Islands in 2007 is approximately equivalent to the number of units sold in the region in 2002, which was, at the time, a record-breaking year for sales, several real estate agents noted."
"This comparison, they said, demonstrates that 2007, though slower than the previous few years, was still a reasonably healthy one for the market."
"'It's definitely down from the prior couple of years, but how do you sustain what was happening then?' said Linda Collins, president of the Cape Cod and Islands MLS."
"Lower home prices, modest interest rates and a glut of inventory are now creating great opportunities for buyers, said real estate agents. This dynamic, they said, could mean that a revival of the market is in store for 2008."