Affordability Is An Issue In Canada
Bloomberg reports on Canada. "Canadian building permits fell almost five times as fast as economists forecast in November, as the value of licenses for new offices and multifamily dwellings tumbled. 'Economists have been calling for a slowdown for years, but this may be the start of the real thing,' said Doug Porter, an economist with BMO Capital Markets in Toronto."
From Reuters. "Canadian building permits fell dramatically and housing prices held steady in November, signaling a slowdown in the housing market but economists warned against dire predictions of a U.S.-style meltdown."
"'The mistake would be to bind today's report on permits to yesterday's soft housing starts number and try to spin it into the makings of a US styled real estate story,' said Stewart Hall, markets strategist at HSBC Canada. 'This is moderation from very high levels to still high levels.'"
"'This dramatic fall in permits offers some credence to the view that the Canadian housing market may have hit a soft spot in the fourth-quarter of 2007, and validates the significant fall reported in housing starts yesterday,' said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities."
"'We would, however, simultaneously emphasize that the Canadian housing market remains in reasonable shape, with an expectation for some moderate adjustments during 2008,' Mulraine said."
The Financial Post. "Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says there is little fear the Canadian housing market could soon resemble the one in the United States. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis there were 187,500 housing starts in December, a 19.6% drop from a month earlier."
"Despite the decline, there were an estimated 229,600 new homes constructed last year, the second highest level of construction in the past two decades."
"'No, the sky is not falling, it really was a weather-related decline,' said Bob Dugan, chief economist with CMHC, noting December was an extremely cold month in Toronto, in particular, and that slowed condominium construction."
"He said there are plenty of pre-sales for condominiums, which would indicate a lot of activity to come. CMHC is sticking with a forecast of 214,000 for new-home construction in 2008, the seventh straight year starts would top 200,000. One would have to go back 30 years to find a comparable run for the construction industry."
"But all is not perfect. Interest rates haven't been this high since August, 2001. 'They are high for recent months but not if you look at them long term,' said Mr. Dugan, who said one of his concerns for the housing market was the possibility of credit drying up."
From The Star. "A stormy December put the big chill on home building as Canadian housing starts sank to the lowest level in almost six years."
"'The sharp drop in housing starts shouldn't be seen as a prelude to a U.S.-style meltdown,' said BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Robert Hogue. 'Nonetheless, the sector's strong momentum of the last several years is expected to slow moderately, as rising economic uncertainty throws some sand in the housing engine.'"
"'The strong price gains recorded in 2007 began to stress affordability, suggesting that Canada's housing market will cool,' said senior bank economist Dawn Desjardins. 'Still, against a backdrop of a strong labour market, rising wages and low interest rates, the slowing is likely to be modest.'"
"Of all cities, Toronto registered the biggest hit, with starts down 51 per cent from November."
The Halifax News. "House prices in Atlantic Canada keep edging up, putting ownership out of reach for more residents. According to Valerie Folk, area manager for Royal LePage Atlantic in Halifax, a lack of desirable properties in Bedford, Sackville and Dartmouth left little room for price negotiation."
"Buyers who tried to go in below asking price were largely denied entry into the market, she said. Two-storey homes in the west end soared by 32.5 per cent to $265,000."
From The Record. "Homes were bought and sold at a record pace in Waterloo Region last year, defying all predictions of a slowdown in the housing market. Across the region, 9,799 homes were sold in 2007, topping the red-hot 2005 market, when 9,146 homes were sold in the Kitchener, Waterloo and Cambridge areas."
"Ever since the last record was hit in 2005, there have been predictions that the pace of home buying is bound to slow down, especially since the U.S. housing market has been in a slump. But that hasn't happened in this area."
"'It was our best year yet,' said Tania Benninger, president of the Kitchener-Waterloo Real Estate Board. 'Last year, when we were coming off of a really good year, people said it was bound to slow down. This year, again, I'm hearing that it's bound to slow down. But, I think, even if it slows down a wee bit, it will still be a hot market.'"
"While the price of housing has been steadily rising across the region, Benninger says homes are still affordable compared to other major markets in Ontario."
"Last year, in Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge, 36 homes sold for more than $750,000, with eight of those selling for more than $1 million. In 2006, there were 23 homes sold for more than $750,000, with eight of those selling for more than $1 million."
"'We are bringing new blood and creating wealth in our own community,' Benninger said."
The Chronicle Herald. "Canada’s residential real-estate market posted solid gains in the final three months of 2007, avoiding much of its usual midwinter slowdown, but price increases are likely to slacken this year, Royal LePage Real Estate Services reports."
"The October-December period 'had really unusual, high levels of activity, and that in turn drove higher price appreciation than we expected,' Royal LePage president Phil Soper said."
"The country’s biggest real estate agency franchiser said bungalow prices rose 43 per cent in Saint John, N.B., and 21 per cent in Winnipeg, and double-digit percentage gains were also recorded in Edmonton, Vancouver and Victoria."
"The Prairies continued to dominate in price appreciation late in 2007, and home prices in Saskatchewan rose much faster than anywhere else in the country. Bungalow prices were up 55 per cent to $292,500 in Saskatoon and 52 per cent to $229,200 in Regina."
"In Alberta, where Edmonton’s prices were rising at a 50 per cent annualized clip early in 2007, the breakneck rise in recent years 'has moderated demand,' the Royal LePage report said."
"Edmonton and Calgary now have 'a surplus of inventory,' it added, and 'while demand is strong, the increased supply has impacted the resale market and homes that are not priced appropriately will take longer to sell.'"
"Soper said the Alberta economy needs time to adjust to the 'frankly unhealthy increase' in home prices between late 2005 and early 2007."
"A typical Vancouver bungalow was priced at $795,250, up 12 per cent from a year earlier, a standard condominium appreciated 11 per cent to $428,250, and a two-storey house in Vancouver also rose 11 per cent to an average of $895,000."
"Vancouver’s rise is slowing in percentage terms, but 'at this rate it will be in the next 24 months the first region in Canada to have a housing class with an average price over $1 million,' Soper commented. 'Wages and salaries there aren’t that much superior to other parts of the country, so affordability is an issue.'"
The Leader Post. "The ground is frozen but that hasn't halted the record-breaking pace of new home construction in the City of Regina. Despite a bit of a lull in December, new housing starts in 2007 were at a 21-year high, according to the monthly survey released Wednesday by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation."
"'That is amazing,' said Alice Russell, executive director of the Regina and Region Home Builders Association. 'I don't remember having a December like we did in 2006. It was out of the norm.'"
"'If we did not see another house this year, we would all still be busy,' said Heather McGinnis, project consultant at Munro Homes in Regina. The phones are still ringing off the hook and builders are moving as quickly as possible to get the homes built, McGinnis said."
"The housing market in Regina set all kinds of records in 2007, and the fourth quarter of the year was no exception."
"The average price of residential properties in Saskatchewan rose more than anywhere else in the country for the fourth quarter. From December 2006 to December 2007, some properties increased in price more than 50 per cent, according to the Royal LePage house price survey."
"The biggest jump in Regina was in detached bungalows, which increased by 52.4 per cent from 2006 to an average of $229,200. Standard condominiums also had strong increases at 49.2 per cent, making the average price $144,000."
"The good news for buyers is that not all homes are jumping at such a drastic rate. The bad news, however, is that the most-sought-after homes are making the biggest jumps. This also means that the market will be able to withstand increases of this kind for some time, according to broker Mike Duggleby."
"The increases meant change for the buyers, sellers and realtors. Some of the changes included the Association of Regina Realtors creating forms to deal with bidding wars and realtors agreeing to not take offers until a certain day, allowing buyers time to see the homes, explained Duggleby."
"He also said vendors had to be ready to sell their homes very quickly after putting them on the market and buyers had to be active in their search and prepared to make offers immediately."
"Although the increase of 50 per cent in a year is shocking, Regina is still relatively affordable compared to the national averages, says Royal LePage."
"Regina also fell slightly below Saskatoon's numbers. There, condos increased the most at 65.3 per cent from December 2006 to $205,000 in December 2007. Detached two-storey homes increased by 56.7 per cent to $321,250 and detached bungalows hit $292,500, up 55.2 per cent."
"Duggleby expects the Regina market to follow in Saskatoon's footsteps just as Edmonton followed in the footsteps of Calgary's housing boom."
"The main story in 2007 was demand and Duggleby says that we can expect much of the same for 2008. His only advice for people wanting to buy is, 'Do it as soon as you can.'"