An Opportunity For Some, A Tragedy For Others
The Used House Salespeople report from California. "Home sales decreased 33.4 percent in December in California compared with the same period a year ago, C.A.R. reported today. The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during December 2007 was $475,460, a 16.5 percent decrease from the revised $569,350 median for December 2006."
"C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in December 2007 was 14.5 months, compared with 5.9 months (revised) for the same period a year ago."
"In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 8.8 percent, or 25 out of 285 cities and communities, showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago."
The Orange County Register. "The California Association of Realtors reported today that the median Orange County house price for all of 2007 fell for the first time in 12 years. CAR reported that the median price of an existing single-family home was off 7.9% in December from December 2006."
"According to CAR, the number of homes on the market would take 26.3 months to sell at December’s sales pace, down from 29.5 months in November...up from the 9.4-month figure for December 2006, CAR reported."
The Union Tribune. "Despite a real estate downturn that has made housing in San Diego County more affordable, a new nationwide study shows that the county's median priced home of $440,000 remains out of reach for most workers here...according to the Center for Housing Policy."
"In San Diego County, the amount of household income needed to purchase a median-priced home during the third quarter of last year dropped 12 percent to $143,738, compared with $163,404 a year earlier. The county's median household income is $68,000, and with wages destined to remain stagnant this year, there is little room for optimism for entry-level buyers, say some analysts."
"'We're not going to get back to where the median-income household can afford the median priced home, so housing will still be unaffordable in San Diego,' said Marny Cox, chief economist for the San Diego Association of Governments."
"Foreclosure filings in Riverside County jumped more than 50 percent last month, and skyrocketed 300 percent compared to a year ago. A total 6,821 filings of mortgage default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions were recorded in the county in December, said RealtyTrac."
"Statewide, there were 53,292 filings in December, a 33 percent increase over November, RealtyTrac said. The figure represented a 238 percent increase over 2006."
"The state 'documented the highest number of foreclosure filings and the most properties in some stage of foreclosure in 2007,' according to a RealtyTrac statement."
The North County Times. "New home sales in North County dropped for the second straight year, reflecting a national trend that showed the worst annual decline in new home sales ever recorded, according to by the Commerce Department."
"New home sales in North County since 2005 have tumbled 49 percent. The region MarketPointe defines as North County Coastal - from La Jolla to Carlsbad - saw the biggest dive in new home sales, recording a mammoth 73 percent drop in fourth quarter sales to 87 properties from last year's fourth quarter when 317 homes and condos were sold."
"When compared to December 2006...the North County median fell 9 percent to $569,000. During housing slumps, buyers often look for the cheapest price, which tend to be in older homes, and builders often prefer to offer incentives such as granite countertops, rather than slash prices on new homes, said Russ Valone, president of MarketPointe."
"'There's no doubt that we have inventory now that we never would have had three years ago,' said Mark Connal, director of sales for a homebuilder in Escondido. 'Loans are harder to get, the economy isn't as good and a lot of people don't want to buy because they haven't perceived we're at the bottom of the market.'"
From USA Today. "The most striking trend in the San Bernardino real estate market is the surge in foreclosures. Lenders filed close to 24,000 notices of default last year, up nearly 150% from 2006. And 7,727 homeowners lost their homes through foreclosure — roughly one in 20 sales and up nearly 720% from the previous year, according to DataQuick."
"'Foreclosures have been growing at a rapid pace for all of 2007, and we anticipate almost an avalanche in 2008,' says Rich Cosner, president of Prudential California Realty."
"His agents are telling owners who need to sell within the next five years to put it on the market now because prices are projected to fall further. For buyers...there's a 15-month supply of homes to choose from. Price declines are hitting every neighborhood, Cosner says."
"'I've been in this business for 35 years,' Cosner says, 'and I don't believe I've seen a more difficult market for homeowners. We are not anticipating any significant turnaround until mid-2009.'"
The Bakersfield Californian. "Kern County tops a new list of large U.S. home markets with a high probability that homeowners will miss a mortgage payment. First American CoreLogic’s report ranked Kern ahead of every other large metropolitan area in the country, just above No. 2 Stockton and No. 3 Fresno."
"County records show that lenders sent 8,651 default notices to Kern property owners in 2007 — more than twice the rate in 2006, when 3,275 defaults were recorded."
"Eydie Gibson, a real estate agent at Watson Touchstone Real Estate, said the recent increase in foreclosures allows some buyers into the market as lenders price foreclosed homes to sell quickly. 'It’s a temporary bump,' she said. 'It’s an opportunity for some, a tragedy for others.'"
"But credit consultant Anselmo Moreno found it harder to see the ranking’s positive side. He said local real estate professionals pushed sales too hard between 2004 and 2006, leading some people to buy when they should not have."
"'It was just a matter of time before (mortgage lenders) realized we are at the highest risk for mortgage defaults,' Moreno said."
The Fresno Bee. "In Fresno County, the number of new homes sold in 2007 fell 19.4% from the year previous to the lowest level in three years, slipping below 2004 figures. In Madera County, sales fell almost 62% compared with 2006 to 432 -- the lowest total since 399 houses changed hands in 2003."
"'Builders have been waiting for buyers and buyers have been waiting for prices to drop. At some point, they have to match up,' said Robert Keenan, executive director of the Home Builders Association of Tulare and Kings Counties."
"Last year was the first year that new-home prices took a tumble. The median price of a new home in Fresno County in 2007 was $293,000 compared with a peak of $349,500 in 2006. Likewise, Tulare County values fell 14.5% to $267,250 from $312,500."
The Modesto Bee. "Northern San Joaquin Valley home prices have plummeted, but they haven't fallen enough to become affordable for most wage earners, a new study shows."
"Home buyers must earn about $98,000 a year to comfortably afford a median-priced house in Stanislaus County, the Center for Housing Policy reports. But workers in only one of the 64 occupations studied -- construction managers -- earned that much last year."
"Even two-income couples with good jobs -- such as accountants, police officers, school teachers and firefighters -- barely can cover ownership costs, the report showed. The findings were about the same for San Joaquin and Merced counties."
"Anita Hellam, executive director of Habitat for Humanity for Stanislaus County, remembers during the mid-90s 'when the majority of the working families living in Modesto were able to find affordable housing.'"
"But Northern San Joaquin Valley home prices nearly tripled from 1996 to 2005, pushing ownership out of reach for many residents."
"Even though valley home prices fell about 25 percent during the last year, Hellam said more people than ever are seeking Habitat for Humanity's help to acquire their first home."
The Recordnet. "In San Joaquin County, new-home sales fell 26.9 percent, from 2,865 in 2006 to 2,095 for all of last year, according to the Gregory Group in Folsom."
"Joe Anfuso, CEO of Stockton-based Florsheim Homes (said), 'I think it's all part of what we need as part of the correction cycle.'"
"He noted that home buying traffic picked up in December and has gained some momentum, though many would-be buyers continue to sit back to see whether prices keep dropping. 'The only thing that's stopping them is what if the market goes down?' he said."
"In response, the company is rolling out a price guarantee: If a buyer purchases a new home this year, the buyer is guaranteed a rebate if the base price of that home is lower at the end of the year. 'To get people off the fence, we'll take the ride with them through the year,' Anfuso said."
"The average selling price of a new home in San Joaquin County dropped 12 percent over a year, from $519,350 in the fourth quarter of 2006 to $456,956 in the fourth quarter of last year."
The Auburn Journal. "The comeback of the $200,000 home and the promise of Placer County's continuing popularity as a place to live are two of the clouds local real estate leaders are focusing on during a troublesome market."
"Placer County Association of Realtors statistics for December show a $357,000 median value for the 226 homes sold in December -- down from $366,000 in November, and $439,700 in December 2006."
"The median value is well off the peak of a red-hot August 2005 real estate market in the county, when it soared to $517,500 and 486 sales were closed."
"Joe Newton, Association of Realtors president, said Monday that while the market has been awash with negative industry statistics, the downturn has meant clients buying and selling homes 'rely on us even more as trusted advisors.'"
"Over the weekend, Newton had a chance to compare notes with California Association of Realtors colleagues at a conference in Indian Wells. The 2008 Placer County association president said that while the Lincoln area had some problems, the market was much more positive in other areas of the county."
"That compares with areas like San Diego, Stockton and Elk Grove that were struggling with foreclosures, he said."
"'The leaders in the industry know that a positive attitude is important so our clients move forward with confidence and authority,' Newton said."
"Michael Lyon, CEO of Lyon Real Estate, pointed to a marked increase in the number of homes for sale priced below $200,000 as a bright sport for the industry."
"'Just one year ago less than two percent of the homes for sale were priced below $200,000,' Lyon said. 'Now 12 percent of the homes for sale in the four-county Sacramento region are priced below $200,000, with the majority of these homes being bank owned.'"
"Lyon said that increase, with the number of closed sales in December jumping 50 percent over November, indicated a 'new boom' in that sector of the market."
"Lyon said the second bright spot from December's survey revolved around the inventory of houses in the $200,000 to $300,000 range. The inventory of 3,969 homes represented 30 percent of the total number of homes listed in the four-county inventory taking in Placer, Sacramento, El Dorado and Yolo counties."
"Placer County sales were up 300 percent for the year in the $200,000 to $300,000 price range due to sharp price declines, he said."
"The Trendgraphix report's overall totals for the tri-county region of Sacramento, Placer and El Dorado counties mirrored the Placer County numbers. Sales were 22 percent lower than December 2006 sales and the December inventory of 13,181 homes for sale was 28 percent higher than the December 2006 inventory."