All Bubbles Burst And Prices Will Have To Fall Some More
A report from the Arizona Republic. "Home evictions have risen about 15 percent since January 2006 in parts of the East Valley, including Scottsdale and Tempe, constables said. They are substantially higher, up to 45 percent, in parts of Phoenix, Ahwatukee, Chandler, the north Valley and the West Valley, constables said. Among Arizona prime-loan defaults, 26 percent of the homes were not owner-occupied, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Among subprime-loan defaults, 18 percent were not owner-occupied."
"'We didn't realize how much of an impact it was going to have on us when the market turned,' said Constable Philip Hazlett, who works in the North Valley Precinct. 'It used to be a standard tract home would be where you'd do your eviction. Nowadays, I do ones on houses that sell for $750,000 in Anthem.'"
"'You'll see people that have been there a year or two or three, and their luck changed,' said Constable Dan Ryan. 'On the other hand, you get someone that's made a bad decision with a renter, and they got suckered. All of a sudden, somebody's not paying.'"
"That's what happened to homeowners Carmen Nuñez and her husband, Raymond Ordoñez. Almost four years ago, they bought a nice home in a nice neighborhood near 35th and Northern avenues in Phoenix. They kept the house as an investment property when they later moved to Laveen and in August rented it to a young, unmarried couple."
"The tenants stopped paying the $1,200 rent in December, instead dodging Nuñez's phone calls and giving lots of excuses."
"On Wednesday, a team of constables descended on the home to evict the tenants, who weren't home. The house was trashed: Half-eaten hamburgers and moldy bowls filled with cereal and milk sat on a table. Christmas decorations, dirty clothes and toys were scattered through the living room. The carpets were stained, the place smelled like rotten food and dirty diapers."
"The tenants rolled up as the owners changed the locks, and the constables carried out the eviction paperwork. The tenant, Bobby Green, jumped out of a car, screamed, cursed and started to get physical with one constable. Within seconds, Green was Tasered, down on the driveway and in handcuffs."
"'I'm spending money I don't have to pay the mortgage on that house, my house, to the courts for the eviction,' said Nuñez, a real-estate agent. 'It's affected me really badly, and it's just plain ridiculous.'"
"In metropolitan Phoenix...home builders are selling off land that they can't sell homes on in the near future. Investors are buying home lots for bargain prices, which lets them hold onto the properties until the demand for homes picks back up."
"In the last few weeks of 2007, as many as 8,000 vacant but finished home lots ready for construction sold in the Phoenix area, according to Scottsdale-based land brokerage and consulting firm Nathan & Associates."
"'Investors are offering about 30 cents on the dollar for finished lots now,' Nathan said. 'So if it cost a builder $700 a foot to finish the lot (get it ready for a new home), then buyers are offering $350 to $500 a foot.'"
"During the boom of 2005 and even as the market started to slow in 2006, publicly traded builders sparked bidding wars to buy huge tracts of land in the Valley. But now many builders who operated primarily as manufacturers and not long-term land developers in the past, need to get the dirt off their books."
"During the fourth quarter, housing giants D.R. Horton, Pulte Homes, Lennar, Centex and Toll Brothers lost a combined of $1.47 billion due to falling land values. RL Brown, publisher of the Phoenix Housing Market Letter, tallied 61,000 finished lots sitting empty across the Valley."
"Longtime builder Greg Hancock, who sold his last housing firm to publicly traded Meritage Homes of Scottsdale, has invested in some lots in Pinal County."
"Market watchers say he plans to sell homes for $90,000 there, well under half the Valley's median home price."
"Pinal County existing-home sales picked up during last quarter of 2007 as lower prices enticed more buyers into metropolitan Phoenix's southeastern suburb. The median price of a Pinal County used home fell to $174,000 at the end of 2007. A year ago, it was $191,500."
"Resales during the last three months of last year climbed to 1,145, compared to 625 during the third quarter, according to Arizona State University."
"'Although affordability has improved, higher gasoline prices, more congested highways and limited employment opportunities continue to strongly hamper any potential recovery of the housing market in Pinal County,' said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies."
The New York Times on Arizona. "South of Tucson on Interstate 19, just over the Santa Cruz County line, two rugged mountain ranges vie for your attention: the soaring Santa Rita Mountains to the east, and the smaller, but no less compelling, Tumacacori Mountains to the west."
"Lonnie Wagner, who lives in Colorado Springs, and his wife, Linda, bought a second home with another couple at the Tubac Golf Resort in 2001 for $185,000. Both couples later opted for their own digs, and in 2004 the Wagners bought a larger place just north of the resort area."
"'The more we came down here, the more we liked the idea of having more space around us,' Mr. Wagner said. 'Plus prices were starting to climb fast, and we didn’t want to miss our chance.'"
"They paid $250,000 for a 2,400-square-foot, three-bedroom stuccoed house on three-quarters of an acre."
"'We were walking hand in hand, on one of those gorgeous starry nights they have here, and we thought, 'Wouldn’t it be wonderful to have a place here,' said Christine Priester, of Denver, who traveled frequently to the area with her husband to visit family."
"Soon after, in 2003, the couple learned that an adobe-brick house next door to an aunt and uncle was up for sale. They bought it for $260,000. 'We play tennis and golf, but we also love to just walk around,' she said."
"Despite Tubac’s rising population of second-home owners — real estate agents estimate that 25 percent of homeowners have primary residences elsewhere — the village has kept its small-town charm. Residents like to point out that there’s no stoplight in town, and just one gas station."
"Tubac has had considerable growth in the last five years. Barrio de Tubac, a 350-acre planned community just south of the historic village, has exploded in size in recent years. Its residential homes include town houses, patio homes and larger single-family dwellings. Prices range from $275,000 to $850,000."
"Home sales were strong in Tubac starting in 2003, but have since begun to taper, said Gary Brasher, president of Brasher Real Estate. 'We’re a niche market here,' he said. 'Even though things are not great guns like they were, things are still selling at a pretty good pace.'"
"There are two basic types of properties in Tubac, Mr. Brasher said — those in small subdivisions, like the ones found in and around the golf resort, and those found in Barrio de Tubac."
"Overall, one- and two-bedroom town houses typically range between $268,000 and $425,000. Patio homes and villas, with more space, are priced between $350,000 and $550,000. Prices for single-family homes vary depending on location and lot size, with prices ranging from $400,000 to $800,000."
"A third option is land, most of which is zoned as rural, meaning one home to roughly five acres. Those lots are typically priced between $250,000 and $325,000."
"The most sought after second homes are those that are low maintenance, like the golf resort villas. 'When one comes on the market they tend to get snapped up pretty quick,' said Bill Mack of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage."
The Yuma Sun from Arizona. "While national media continue to paint a bleak picture of the real estate market, Yuma is charting its own course, one that shows the worst may well be over."
"Chris Hall, co-general partner in Cielo Verde Development, is banking on it."
"A grand opening was held Saturday for the project south of 32nd Street along Avenue 8E. Cielo Verde brings a new concept to Yuma that combines homes and businesses in a planned community, all linked with a 25-acre linear park. The planned shopping center already is anchored by the Foothills Wal-Mart Supercenter."
"'Every home will be within walking distance of an ice cream cone or a haircut,' Hall said."
"But just when the project began to move from paper to dirt, the real estate market took a nosedive. 'We held back opening,' Hall said, 'waiting for a sense of a turn in the market.' Now seems like the time, Hall said."
"Hall isn't the only one who is bullish on Yuma's housing market. 'Activity has really picked up,' said Jason Kehl, president of the Yuma Association of Realtors. While there are nearly 1,000 single-family homes currently listed for sale by YAR, he said, 'houses priced under $200,000 are moving pretty quickly.'"
"'If people are thinking of buying, this is a good time,' Kehl said. 'Interest rates are at historic lows and sellers are willing to wheel and deal ... and I expect prices to rise again.'"
"Joe Wehrle, Yuma County assessor, said his fourth-quarter 2007 real estate report indicates that while there was still a decrease for the three months in the number of homes sold, there was more activity in December and the quarter ended with a slight increase in the average sale price. Now $217,000, that's 5.4 percent higher than for the previous quarter."
"And while that average price is 3.9 percent less than for the fourth quarter of 2006, he said, it is 77.5 percent higher than the average sales price of $122,240 in early 2003."
"'We're not exactly what the Phoenix metropolitan area is experiencing,' Wehrle said. 'That's not to say we haven't had a downturn, but not to the degree in Phoenix.'"
"There still are neighborhoods where homes in foreclosure sit on one side of the street while on the other side, new homes are under construction, he said. And, yes, some houses have been sitting on the market for months. "
"Optimism is reflected in city of Yuma building activity. For the month of January, 22 building permits were issued for single-family dwellings, said Randy Crist, city of Yuma building official. But new housing activity has a ways to go to recover. Crist said in 2007, a total of 213 permits were issued for single-family dwellings."
"In 2006, the number was 699."
"'I guess the good news is that we haven't dropped below where we were in 2005,' Wehrle said. 'We raised the bar and it hasn't fallen as it did in Phoenix. That just hasn't happened here.'"
The Reno Gazette Journal from Nevada. "Home foreclosures in Washoe County rocketed 614 percent in 2007 from a year earlier, a report on Monday showed, as sales and prices of homes continued sagging in a trend observers expect to last through this year."
"'It's going to get worse before it gets better,' said analyst Brian Kaise of the Center for Regional Studies in Reno, who helped compile the report."
"The report summary said foreclosures have risen in all geographic areas of the Truckee Meadows, totaling 750 in 2007 from 105 in 2006. Additionally, 14 percent of the area's active homes for sale in December were bank-owned homes."
"Add in homes already on the market, which are taking 20 percent longer to sell than in 2006, and 'it's really not a good scenario,' Kaiser said."
"He sees no turnaround of the 6 percent drop in price last year for all housing countywide. And the glut in foreclosures could worsen as more adjustable-rate mortgages come due for big increases."
"Tom Cargill, economist at the University of Nevada, Reno, agreed. 'All bubbles burst, and the pressure came down,' he said. 'A lot of unwise decisions were made. Add in the slowdown in other economic indicators, and it puts even more pressure on. Prices will have to fall some more.'"
"Broker Ken Wiseman said his roster of homes added two more foreclosures Monday. 'It's ridiculous. I'm up to 22 right now. A year ago, I had zero,' Wiseman said. 'I have potentially another 50 homes not foreclosed on yet but are on the brink. And that's just me.'"
"Wayne Capurro, Reno-Sparks Association of Realtors president, acknowledged that 2007's tough conditions have continued into January. Capurro cited an association study that showed an easing in the drop in the median price of an existing home from 15 percent in 2006 to 10 percent last year."
"'The word is out that most people were way too high-priced,' he said. 'The ones motivated to sell made the adjustments. The ones who'd been on the market for a long time were not reducing their prices. Now, they're doing that.'"
"Capurro said the regional housing market's nadir will be reached perhaps as soon as the second half of this year. 'It was going up and down in fairly significant gyrations,' he said. 'I see that now. I know there's lots of gloom and doom. You have to go back to early 2004 to see today's prices. But affordability is swinging much in favor of buyers.'"
"Complaining their real estate was overvalued for tax purposes, the owners of a record 3,493 Washoe County properties are appealing their cases starting today."
"Many came from the south Truckee Meadows. Land values there and in Washoe Valley and Incline Village rose an average of 80 percent. Since this area hadn't been mass appraised for five years, the latest appraisal covered years marked by a huge run-up in housing prices, peaking in 2005. Since then, prices have declined."
"Gary Bria, owner of a home on a half-acre at the Fieldcreek development south of Reno, said his value jumped from $101,000 to $235,000 in one year. 'I'm going to fight it,' he said."
"Fourteen developers filed appeals for 1,200 vacant subdivision lots. One owner filed appeals for 478 condominiums."
"Assessor Josh Wilson said he will recommend other subdivision lots that have been slashed in price since July be reduced in value, even if no appeals were filed. Under state law, he said, the assessor cannot not appraise properties for more than their cash or market value."
"'It's unprecedented territory,' Wilson said. 'The overall value of real estate in the United States has not declined since the Great Depression.'"