Has The Proverbial Boom Gone Bust?
The St Charles Journal reports from Missouri. "With the full results for 2007 in, St. Charles County evaded some of the more dramatic drops seen in other parts of the country in new home sales. 'What those numbers are indicating is a logical slowdown in permits in the last two years as we are closing and occupying a supply of homes created in '04 and '05 that was in excess,' said Joe Zanola, who owns a St. Louis housing market research firm, adding that 'we have a bit of oversupply.'"
"Realtors in St. Charles County have undertaken a campaign to convince the public the situation is not as dire. During a news conference last week, St. Charles County Association of Realtors CEO Mark Stallmann tried to shift attention to the 2007 housing market's performance in comparison to 2002, which he referred to as the 'last normal market.'"
"In the midst of public concern about the health of the housing market, the Realtors association has characterized the period of 2004 through 2006 as years of unusual growth that should not be used to gauge the present situation."
"Missy Palitzsch, marketing manager for Continental Title in St. Peters, said foreclosures in St. Charles County rose 10 to 15 percent in from 2006 to 2007. A great part of that problem, she said, was that several people who put all their money into adjustable rate loans got into trouble when rates reset."
"'By the third quarter, we're hoping the correction has run its course,' she said."
The Chicago Tribune from Illinois. "With the housing industry locked in a deep chill and another Chicago-area builder, Kennedy Homes, showing signs of financial duress, some builders are trying a new tactic: freezing prices. Several local builders are offering new promises that if they lower prices within a specific time frame after a buyer steps to the plate, that buyer will still get the better 'deal.'"
"Buyers 'are totally afraid,' said housing consultant Steve Hovany. 'This is a way to calm them down.'"
"Lance Ramella, principal with Meyers Builder Advisors in Downers Grove, said a number of builders tried to adjust to the downturn first by reducing staff. 'Pretty much everybody has laid off staff, up to 50 percent in some cases,' he said. 'Then they discounted the price of the houses, and then they shed excess land, and they're still doing all those things,' Ramella said."
"He said the number of new homes sold in the Chicago region plunged from 46,000 in 2005 to 28,000 in 2007. 'I had one builder, a medium-to-small builder, tell me their business plan for 2008 is to sell zero houses,' Ramella said. 'If they sell one house they will exceed their plan.'"
"To lure buyers, companies including KB Home, Ryland Group, Belgravia Group and Kimball Hill are offering price protection guarantees. It's an issue because desperate builders are dropping prices."
"Benjamin Brizuela bought a house reduced by $40,000 from struggling builder Neumann Homes. He paid $266,000 for the four-bedroom home at NeuFairfield, an uncompleted development on the far east side of Joliet."
"'I got a tremendous deal because the developer was headed for bankruptcy,' he said. 'I wasn't upset, because I knew the builder was in a lot of trouble.'"
From Medill Reports in Illinois. "While Illinois’ January housing figures are not yet available, Chicagoland homebuilders said they’re seeing a housing recession."
"'We haven't seen numbers like this since the early 1990s, and that's the last time we've been in a housing recession,' said Bill Ward, director of government affairs for the Home Builders Association of Illinois. 'Most of what has occurred has occurred in the metro suburban area.'"
"The number of building permits for single family homes dropped 67 percent in Illinois over the past two years to 20,000 permits for single family homes in 2007, from 60,000 permits in 2005. 'Basically, what it boils down to, if you have a 40,000 drop [in single-family building permits], you lose approximately 80,000 jobs," Ward said."
"'It doesn't look good, no matter how you slice it or dice it,' said Chris Huecksteadt, director of the Chicago region for Metrostudy. 'In a span of two years, this market's been cut in half.'"
"Huecksteadt said new home contracts in January for Metrostudy's Chicago region were down 40 to 45 percent over last year's figures, and cancellation rates on new home contracts are running between 30 to 50 percent in the Chicago region."
"'Builders are not even confident about a signed contract,' Huecksteadt said, adding that there are tales of customers who signed and even put down earnest money on new homes, but failed to show up for the home closing."
The Daily Herald from Illinois. "Another landmark builder of the Northwest suburbs is laying off workers as it struggles to survive the worst housing depression in years."
"South Barrington-based Kennedy Homes confirmed Monday it laid off 20 of its 32 employees on Friday and said it is unsure of its ability to start new home construction on undeveloped land."
"'We have a financial situation but … (we) intend on building all our homes under construction,' said Stephanie St. John, Kennedy Homes comptroller."
"'There are about 30 homebuilders in the area that build 100 homes or more a year,' said analyst Tracy Cross. 'About one-third of them are in a similar situation.'"
From Model D Media in Michigan. "It's clear the motor is running, but definitely not chugging along like it was just two years ago. Detroit needs a tune up, badly."
"To wit: condo projects are being scrapped (The Griswold), converted to commercial (Mid-Med Lofts) and worst of all, sitting empty (Nine on Third). That's not even mentioning the countless developments that while complete, are just not filling up. Which begs the question: has the proverbial boom gone bust?"
"The Detroit Investment Fund studied the evolution of Greater Downtown's housing stock between 2000 and 2006 and found 2,500 new units of housing, a significant increase in sales prices (from approximately $140 -160 per square foot in 2004 to $198 in 2006) and a young, affluent, educated group of new residents. All good things, no doubt."
"DIF's Dave Blaskewicz characterizes the current market conditions as 'soft.' High unemployment, jail-tight credit, an over-supply of homes for sale and – ouch – record numbers of foreclosures are all to blame."
"The results? The absorption of new units has decreased, sellers are having trouble doing so, projects are failing, would-be purchasers are nervous and potential developments are finding financing more difficult to come by."
"The bottom line is yes, everyone is hurting, from developers to builders to realtors to sellers. But a lot of people are digging in their heels and riding out the storm. 'We're all hurting a little bit right now,' says Elizabeth Tintinalli...the mastermind behind Illuminate Detroit."
"For Joy Santiago of Ralph Roberts Realty, it means she is making lemonade out of lemons. '[Foreclosures] are our largest source of business now,' she says. It's a buyer's market, she says, 'Everything is a really good deal.'"
"Ryan Cooley of O'Connor Realty & Development, says there are two divergent markets when it comes to foreclosures. In the condo foreclosure market, units are moving fairly quickly. On the other hand, when it comes to foreclosed houses, it's a whole 'nother animal. 'They are in rougher shape than the condos,' he says."
From WLNS TV in Michigan. "A growing number of foreclosures in Jackson County is making it hard for some homeowners to sell their houses. The latest figures show foreclosures jumped 40% in just one year."
"'Tim Atkins, Realtor: 'I sold one where there were 3 or 4 foreclosed homes on the immediate block, those homes sold for about $30,000 less than the I home I listed, so I heard comments, like why would I want to buy a home and pay a higher price for it?'"
The Green Bay Press Gazette from Wisconsin. "As was typical throughout 2007, year-end statistics show Wisconsin's real estate market, albeit down, fared better than many other areas of the country. And Northeastern Wisconsin fared well compared to other regions of the state."
"David Clark, an economist with the association, said the first quarter of 2008 will be interesting. He wouldn't be surprised, as a result, if the first quarter was down and some of that business bumped into the second quarter. He expects median home prices to remain flat."
"'The median prices are not going down by any sizable margin. … There certainly is no strong evidence that we have any housing bubble issues, because if you had a housing bubble phenomenon taking place, you'd expect prices to be dropping pretty precipitously. But that isn't happening here,' he said."
"It is still a buyer's market, Clark said, especially for first-time homebuyers. However, potential buyers who are waiting for prices to sharply drop will be waiting a while."
"'If people are trying to time the market so they can pick up benefits of dramatically falling prices, then I just don't see evidence to suggest that's going to happen. That doesn't mean there aren't deals out there. There certainly are. Everyone is looking for the proverbial motivated seller,' Clark said."
"'Quite frankly, an awful lot of people have a majority of their wealth tied up in homes. … a lot of sellers are saying, 'I'll take it off the market or leave it on the market at this price for the foreseeable future rather than take a significant cut.' Especially, if they have any idea of moving up or trading up to a bigger home,' Clark said."
"'Typically, they can't afford to make serious concessions on the value of their current home if what they're trying to is trade up. They need to capture whatever equity they can,' he said."
The Duluth News Tribune from Minnesota. "The number of foreclosures in the area is increasing and it’s a slow time of year for the real estate market, so a Duluth office of a nationwide mortgage company has come up with an idea that has gotten things moving in other places: foreclosure tours."
"Anecdotal reports from real estate agents indicate 150 or more houses currently are in some stage of foreclosure in the Duluth area, which is why Mike Locker and Gloria Allan of Countrywide Financial, a nationwide mortgage lender, decided to experiment with a 'Parade of Foreclosures' tour in February and March."
"Foreclosure tours are big in areas that have large numbers of foreclosures, such as California, but this is the first time the concept has been tried in Duluth, Locker said. 'We’re kind of piggybacking on the West Coast,' he said."
"Tod Venberg, president of the Duluth Area Association of Realtors will lead the second tour. He said that some foreclosed homes 'are really nice, but I’ve seen some that the people were really mad and they trashed the place out.'"