Removing The Excess Boom From The Market
The Hartford Courant reports from Connecticut. "More than 1,000 homeowners have flooded the Connecticut Housing Finance Authority with calls as they sought to qualify for the new loans, which were announced in November and funded by $50 million in state bond money. The loans are intended to help people refinance adjustable-rate mortgages at fixed rates."
"But so far, eight weeks into the program, only 25 loans have been approved. At one of the three mortgage lenders participating, more than 300 inquiries resulted in just three loan approvals."
"The problem is that homeowners seeking help typically don't qualify for the program because they have tarnished credit, their incomes are too low or they don't have enough equity in their homes."
"'I thought this was set up to help people like me, said Lorraine Bedus of Newington, who bought her home for $215,000 in October 2005 with two adjustable-rate loans that rolled over to higher fixed rates in 2007. 'Why set it up if it's not going to work for the majority?'"
"Gov. M. Jodi Rell's office and state housing officials, however, say CT Families was never intended to rescue the thousands of homeowners struggling to make mortgage payments. Rather, the program was aimed at first-time home buyers with adjustable-rate, subprime mortgages who may not have understood that their monthly payments could rise rapidly after the first two or three years."
"In Connecticut, there are an estimated 71,000 subprime mortgages worth about $15 billion, with as many as 8 percent of loans seriously delinquent. About 21,000 are adjustable-rate loans that will continue to reset to higher rates. Of those, about 3,000 financed first-time home purchases."
"Kate McCue, the program manager for the CT Families program in New Britain, said...some of the people are stretched beyond their means where the amount of housing payments are equal to their complete income."
"'When you go to refinance those people, it is still too much for their income to make it an acceptable loan,' she said. 'I don't think the guidelines are too strict. You just have to find the people who do qualify. This is not a bailout program for people who didn't pay their bills for whatever reason. The cause of the delinquency has to be because of the mortgage going up.'"
The Boston Globe from Massachusetts. "Boston is moving to buy or seize several foreclosed condominiums in Dorchester in a significant expansion of the city's efforts to prevent abandoned buildings from blighting fragile neighborhoods."
"Mayor Thomas M. Menino plans to disclose today the city's intention to acquire the properties, the first such effort in recent memory. He also will propose a new ordinance that would impose fines on owners of abandoned buildings."
"The growing focus on foreclosed properties reflects a new reality. Officials so far have failed in most cases to prevent foreclosures."
"The Globe reported yesterday that Providence Mayor David Cicilline is seeking an ordinance that would fine the owners of vacant buildings 10 percent of a building's value if it remains vacant a year after receiving a warning from the city. The massive fine is intended to encourage quick sales by making it cheaper to sell at a loss than to wait for better times."
"Menino's office said yesterday the mayor would use the Providence ordinance as a model for one he will soon propose."
The Enterprise from Massachusetts. "Realtor Coleen Polillio is riding through the slow housing market on a bus and she’s taking her clients with her. The party bus leaves Century 21 C& S Properties offices at 9 a.m. in what may be the first bus tour of foreclosed property in the area."
"'Nothing surprises me,' said Eric Berman, spokesman for the Massachusetts Association of Realtors."
"In Massachusetts, the number of foreclosures shot up 148 percent, from 3,086 in 2006 to 7,653 in 2007, according to the Warren Group. And, there were seven times more foreclosures in the state in 2007 than 2005, the South Boston-based real estate data provider reported."
"'There’s so many, we haven’t picked them out yet,' Polillio said as she prepares to make a list of 15 foreclosed properties to visit on the three-hour bus ride."
The Boston Herald from Massachusetts. "Younger home buyers are sitting out the Bay State’s real estate downturn, with a dramatic drop in activity among buyers from 25 to 34 years old, a new survey found."
"While younger buyers made up 60 percent of first-time buyers back in 2006, that number declined to 49 percent in 2007, according to an annual survey of trends in the local real estate market by the Massachusetts Association of Realtors."
"'The drop in the number of buyers in the 25- to 34-year-old age group is further evidence of the exodus of this educated age group from our state and the continued need for the development of starter homes,' said Susan Renfrew, MAR’s president."
"A new report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s New England Public Policy Center, authored by Fed analyst Heather Brome, questions whether colleged-educated 'young professionals' - between the ages of 25 and 39 - are really leaving the area in droves due to stubbornly high housing prices in Massachusetts and the rest of New England."
"The report says that the number of young professional 'severely burdened' by housing costs - or those who pay out roughly 50 percent of their household income to cover housing expenses - is roughly the same here as the rest of the country."
"'Trying to link housing costs and out-migration (of young professionals), there’s just not a lot of evidence to prove that,' said Brome."
"Not everyone agrees with Brome’s conclusions. Geraldine Aine, a 27-year-old attorney now renting in Boston, said she’s thinking of one day moving back to New Jersey because she can’t find affordable housing here that would allow her to both pay off a mortgage and save at the same time."
"'I’ve been trying to buy a condo for some time, but it’s ridiculous what they’re asking for' in some neighborhoods, said Aine, whose parents live in Florida."
"Though 22-year-old Erika Zysman doesn’t fit into the exact age bracket that Brome studied, she said she’s already thinking of moving out of Massachusetts."
"'When I was younger,' said Zysman, a Seton Hall graduate born locally, 'I would have said, 'Yes, I want to stay in Massachusetts when I get older.’ But now when you come back here (after graduating from college) and see the prices, it’s absurd.'"
"Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, said...there’s 'absolutely' a connection between housing prices and decisions by all workers about whether to move or stay in an area."
"'People vote with their feet,' said Retsinas, noting the state’s decline in population in past years."
From Newsday in New York. "Housing prices on Long Island and in Queens slid further last month, to their lowest level in almost three years, a real estate cooperative reported Monday. One thing did go up, though, in the latest report from the MLS of Long Island: the inventory of unsold homes, which rose by 23 percent to 33,453."
"The service said the median closing price for a home in the three counties was $417,500, down 4.6 percent from a year earlier. 'The last time Long Island reported a median [closing] home price lower than $417,500 was in April of 2005 when it was $415,000,' the service said."
"In Suffolk, the decline was 6 percent, to $373,500. Queens was hardest hit, with the median price falling by 9.8 percent in January from a year earlier, to $438,000."
"The service's CEO, Joseph Mottola, attributed the larger declines in Queens and Suffolk to relatively higher percentages of subprime mortgages...and to homeowners having difficulty paying them."
"'When people perceive that they may get into trouble,' said Mottola, 'there may be a greater sense of urgency to sell and that will be reflected in the pricing.'"
The Times Herald Record from New York. "January's local housing numbers, like those of the month before and the month before that, are pretty grim. Compared with a year ago, single-family home sales are down dramatically in Orange, Ulster and Sullivan counties, according to local boards of Realtors."
"A recent study by Moody's Economy.com predicted that home prices in Orange and Dutchess counties will have slipped about 12 percent by the time they bottom out in 2009. Some sellers have already adjusted their prices accordingly, making their homes a relative bargain by today's standards."
"'We've come down, as an average, 12 to 14 percent on new construction prices,' said local builder Lewis Donnelly."
"One of Donnelly's projects, a string of seven homes in Circleville, could be illustrative of where Orange County's market is headed. He bought the land a year ago for $90,000 a lot, after two deals in the $140,000 range fell through. Recognizing the softening market, Donnelly prepriced the homes at about $400,000, some $10,000 to $20,000 below the market."
"He dropped the prices again as construction, and the housing downturn, progressed. Now, he's listing the homes for about $370,000."
"'A year ago, this house would have been $419,000,' said Donnelly, pointing to a 2,750-square-foot, center-hall colonial with four bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a host of amenities."
"A cursory review of local home listings suggests some builders have been slower to drop their prices. Elsewhere in the Town of Wallkill, there are new colonials similar to Donnelly's listed for $429,900, and even a few smaller ranches priced around what Donnelly is asking."
"'It's not like they're trying to make a lot of money, but they're stuck,' Donnelly said of the other builders. 'Guys can't get out, because they paid $140,000 per lot. Those guys are in trouble.'"
The Democrat and Chronicle from New York. "Talk of a pending recession spurred by a housing slump is greatly exaggerated by national media and could spur a self-fulfilling prophecy as the negative news is emphasized, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors told local real estate agents today."
"Yun told the Greater Rochester Association of Realtors that the national news outlets tend to cherry pick data and expert interviews to perpetuate the story that the economy is heading into recession as housing prices fall and foreclosure rates rise."
"'If the news organizations have an agenda, they will call somebody and they’ll get the information they want,' he said."
"He said short-term losses have actually brought the markets back to healthy levels, which is often ignored in the national storyline. They give more play to economic experts who support those stories, he said."
The Buffalo News from New York. "Lawrence Yun says all real estate is local, and he uses the Buffalo area’s experience to make his point."
"'Even though we are seeing a large sales decline in many parts of the country, it’s showing up [in] the national data, locally the sales data are actually vibrant and picking up,' said Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors."
"'Certainly things are turning for the better here in Buffalo,' he added."
"Yun acknowledged that last year was a bad one for national home sales, fueled by the subprime mortgage meltdown. In 2007, national home prices declined for the first time probably since the Great Depression, but he said that 1.5 percent drop should be put into context."
"'The proper perspective is, well, we did have a housing market boom, we had better than a 50 percent runup in home prices, and now we’re giving back 1.5 percent from a nationwide point of view,' he said."
"Yun said he believes there is pent-up demand for home purchases. But he argued that the national media have a 'bias' toward stressing negative news about real estate, making potential buyers unjustifiably hesitant."
"'There seems to be excessive pessimism among potential home buyers in not wanting to make a purchase, despite the fact they have a huge capacity financially,' he said. 'With this fear in place, it can lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy.'"
"Some high-priced parts of the country are going through a necessary transition since their markets accelerated too quickly, he said."
"Yun said the national market has retreated to the pre-boom level, after removing the 'excess boom' from the market. He cited examples in markets like Florida and Nevada, where a buyer would purchase 10 homes in one neighborhood solely to 'flip' them."
"Mayor Byron W. Brown said the Buffalo area’s low real estate prices are attracting attention. Each week, he said, investors, investment groups and business leaders from places like Boston, New York City, Ohio and California make inquiries."
"'We have seen investors that are expressing tremendous interest and confidence in the city, and that only bodes well for the future of Buffalo and Western New York,' Brown said."