Waiting For The Bottom To Drop Out In Florida
The Associated Press reports from Florida. "Travis Munnerlyn just wanted to add on to his Orlando home to make room for grandchildren coming to live with him and his wife. A couple years later, Munnerlyn cannot make the increasing payments on his adjustable rate loan - not even close - and could lose the house. 'Right now we're seven payments behind,' Munnerlyn said. 'There's one due today and I don't have it.'"
"Many borrowers are told not to worry about increasing interest because they can refinance again before the higher rates take effect. That's what Munnerlyn's mortgage broker told him he could do when he refinanced his house to do the addition."
"Only it didn't work out that way. Munnerlyn's income took a dip when his wife was laid off and he might not have been able to refinance anyway even if she hadn't been. Only nobody explained that to him."
"Now his payment is $2,500 a month on a 3-bedroom, 1,300-square-foot home, and he's wallowing in late fees and his credit is ruined."
"'I can't buy a box of matches on credit,' said Munnerlyn. 'It ruins people.'"
The Orlando Sentinel. "Despite the persistent slump in housing starts and sales, the Homebuilders Association of Lake County is upbeat about this year's Lake-Sumter Parade of Homes."
"'Right now, basically there is a lot of inventory,' Jean Kaminski, executive director of the association, said. 'Builders have reduced their prices, they won't go any lower.'"
"Single-family home builders are dropping their prices, and not just for standing inventory, said Jim Lewis, president of Charles Wayne Consulting, but developers of condominiums and other attached housing are cutting their prices even more."
"Thousands of condo units remain on the market, he noted, and the lack of demand has brought construction and conversions almost to a halt."
"According to Dan Fasulo, director of market analysis for Real Capital Analytics, apartment-to-condo conversions soared because investors saw an opportunity to undercut single-family sales as fast-rising land prices, construction costs and other factors drove single-family home prices to unsustainable levels."
"In 2005, at the peak of the conversion craze, 65 apartment complexes were bought by converters for a combined $2.5 billion, creating a pool of about 20,000 would-be condo units."
"'That game is now over,' he said. 'Last year, there were zero apartment complexes sold in the Orlando market with the intent to convert to condos,. I've never seen an industry slam on the brakes faster than that.'"
"In what could go down as the great Hail Mary pass of 2008, the federal government will send consumers more than $100billion in tax rebates this spring, hoping they will spend freely and prevent the U.S. economy from taking a dive."
"At Sam's Music Bar Bistro in MetroWest, the familiar lunchtime din has trailed off a bit in recent months. Owner Kevin Dalgarno blames the dropping decibel level on the slumping economy, which he says has reduced the appetite to spend."
"'Customers are telling us that they are having more financial problems and they aren't dining out as much,' Dalgarno said. 'We hope that we will get some kind of kickback from this, but I don't have a lot of hope for the immediate economy.'"
"John Leahy, a salesman at Sound Advice on East Colonial Drive in Orlando, was pacing the specialty-electronics vendor's showroom one afternoon last week, hoping for a customer. 'The market has been in decline,' Leahy said. 'The housing crunch began around when I started here, and that's hurting. You have all these guys who were building houses a few years ago who are out of work now and not spending as much.'"
"Leahy said people are worried about paying for basic needs and keeping up with debt payments. 'It's horrible,' he said, and glanced at a wall of flat-panel televisions across the showroom. 'These are nonessentials.'"
"Leahy said he personally understands the problem: His pay is based on sales and, in the current slow market, he is having a hard time affording basics. 'I would like to buy a nice TV,' he said, 'but I have a car that I might not get another year out of to think about.'"
The Miami Herald. "At Key West's quaint Tropical Inn on Duval Street, the communal microwave is heating a lot of food these days."
"'More guests have been bringing back leftovers from the restaurants,' said Jane Lowe, owner of the inn. 'Instead of going out for dinner and lunch the next day, they'll eat those leftovers for lunch. We see a lot of people cutting corners.'"
"'It's slow on Duval Street, but it's slow all over the country,' said Virginia Panico, executive VP of the Key West Chamber of Commerce. 'There are times when we don't feel it, or are the last to feel it. But we are in the midst of a slowdown.'"
"It seems difficult to believe times are tough for Duval merchants by simply looking at the city's main tourist drag. Since Christmas, there have been crowds of people on its sidewalks day and night. 'But do you see any of them carrying bags?' asked Tony Gregory, owner of an eclectic jewelry and T-shirt shop that has been at the same Duval Street location for 26 years."
"There are 31 properties or businesses (about 10 percent of the total) for sale or lease on Duval Street, according to the Key West Association of Realtors. 'No question the national economy is affecting it,' said Claude Gardner, co-owner of Prudential Knight & Gardner Realty. 'For too long, we believed that Key West is insulated from the rest of the economy.'"
The News Press. "Experts painted a picture at a conference Thursday of a Southwest Florida real estate market battered by excessive speculation but ready to recover next year - with an avalanche of baby boomer retirees not far behind."
"But before that bonanza, there will be some hard times in the local home-building industry, said Michael Timmerman, Naples-based senior associate with Hank Fishkind & Associates."
"'Foreclosures are just beginning to come onto the market,' he said. 'We won't see the full effect until the foreclosures flush through the system.'"
"About 1,000 houses a month have been going into foreclosure in Lee County in recent months, and there are about 16,000 houses on the market. The bottom line, Timmerman said, is that there will likely be no measurable change until early 2009 with a real expansion not in the works until 2010."
"Low interest rates instituted by the Federal Reserve in 2002 and 2003 sparked the speculation that resulted in an over-supply of homes and a collapse of the market at the beginning of 2006, he said. 'Real estate was the best investment because you got free money.'"
The Tampa Tribune. "The Polk County Commission rejected a pair of efforts to roll back the county's impact fees during a contentious Wednesday afternoon hearing. Many supporters of the rollback wore red, white and blue badges and held signs reading 'Save Our Jobs.'"
"Supporters proposed the rollback, billed it as a short-term plan designed to kick-start Polk's home building industry."
"A slightly smaller group of opponents of the rollback argued that the housing market slowdown is a product of overbuilding during a housing bubble and that impact fees are needed to help pay for the needs generated by the new residents who bought homes before the bubble burst."
"A pair of county economists pointed out, however, there were more than 5,200 existing homes listed for sale in the county as of December. During that same month, only 250 sold. Based on that rate of absorption, it will take 21 months to absorb the inventory of existing homes."
"Gordon Kettle, an economist with Polk's economic development agency, said: 'I don't think cutting impact fees is going to make much of a difference. It's not going to restore the housing market to what it was. We could lower impact fees to zero, and it wouldn't change this housing market overnight.'"
The Ledger. "Commissioner Randy Wilkinson was skeptical of the builders' claims that impact fees are related to the slowdown in construction. Wilkinson cited Duval County, which he said has no impact fees and still suffered a slowdown."
"A procession of builders told commissioners how they have had to lay off employees because of the slow housing market. 'Everyone's running skeleton crews,' said contractor Chuck Hunt. 'Put our people to work.'"
"Contractor Doug Thomas said the impact fee cut is worth trying. 'We won't know until we try,' he said."
"Al Whittle from Florida Bipartisans criticized the proposal, calling it 'the wrong solution to the right problem.' Impact fees have nothing to do with the housing slump, he said, laying the blame instead overbuilding and unscrupulous lending."
"Polk County recorded just 151 permits for new home construction last month, making it the lowest January total in Ledger records dating back to 1994."
"'It just shows that the activity is still slow and hasn't picked up. It's still declining,' said Scott Coulombe, executive director of the Polk County Builders Association. 'We've got people who are barely hanging on now, and if things don't pick up, you'll see people going out of business before the year is up.'"
"Ongoing price cuts and incentive wars among builders also have kept potential buyers on the sidelines. 'Some people are still waiting for the bottom to drop out,' Coulombe said."
"Lakeland-based Southern Homes is specifically trying to lure cautious buyers with a recently unveiled program called 'Price Guard,' which makes customers eligible for any price cuts that occur during the construction of their home."
"Jared Weggeland, Southern Homes' director of sales and marketing, says the program should help determine the impact price anxiety is having on sales."
"'We don't have any results yet, but we hope it will expose that objection as something that can be overcome,' Weggeland said. 'If that's the reason people say they're not buying, and we take away that reason.'"
The Herald Tribune. "Seven bargain hunters, most wearing shorts, slipped into a white stretch limousine Wednesday morning, hoping their adventure in luxury would lead them to a good deal on a home."
"By the end of the three-hour tour of properties in foreclosure, two couples were considering a second look at a 3,500-square-foot, canal-front home with a pool and hot tub in Rotonda West. The asking price: $289,000."
"Even the limo driver, Frank Rieck, became really interested in one property. It was a sea-green home in South Gulf Cove with a barrel tile roof, high living room ceilings and three bedrooms for $189,000."
"The owner had bought the property to flip it, but by the time it reached the market it was too late, said real estate associate Pam Civitillo. The bank owns the property now, she said."
"If the foreclosure tours help sell homes, the benefits to the market can be widespread, said Ken Wieand, a professor of finance who teaches real estate classes at the University of South Florida."
"'It sounds a little ghoulish,' he said. 'But it kind of makes sense to clear the market. By and large any effort to get the unsold inventory off the books is a good thing.'"
"Mark Maudlin of Bers & Co., an affiliate of Prudential Palms Realty, wrote in to discuss the foreclosure mess."
"'Homeowners usually struggle to retain their family home in any way they can, but it's different for investors and speculators, who seem to be involved with a large percentage of the foreclosures,' Maudlin said. 'Present economic conditions give them no reason to hold on.'"
"'One investor called us this morning about a $500,000 new construction home he has had under contract for two years. He'd made a $70,000 deposit but even before he could close, the developer and builder cut prices by $100,000 for other comparable new homes, and they included upgrades in the deal.'"
"'Now he's already lost $100,000 on the home's value. If he closes, he'll spend another $50,000 during the first year for principal, interest, taxes and insurance, plus about $12,000 in maintenance fees. If he tries to sell, transaction costs will add about $30,000 more to his expenses -- for a property that's already lost $100,000 in value if not more.'"
"'In that context, he figures he's ahead of the game if he gives up the $70,000 deposit,' Maudlin wrote."
"'Based on the calls we're getting, it looks as if foreclosures will continue for the immediately foreseeable future. We don't see any soft landing at the bottom of this downturn.'"