Sitting On A Powder Keg
A report from the Alaska Journal of Commerce. "Following in the footsteps of the Seattle housing market, Alaska may soon have its very own mixed-use residential/retail structure located in the heart of Downtown Anchorage. The proposed 100,000-square-foot, 16-story Crystal Plaza development will feature 40 high-end residential units...between 2,200 and 2,500 square feet, and will cost between $1.2 million to $1.9 million."
"'Downtown Anchorage desperately needs downtown living. This project can not only fill that void, but really make Downtown a truly vibrant area,' said Steve Kirshner architect/project manager for RIM Architects. "
"The property is owned by longtime Alaskan Eunice Silberer. Silberer spends part of the year in Scottsdale, Ariz., 'which is just booming with high-rise downtown residential projects,' Kirshner said."
"The goal of the project, Kirshner said, is to give the Downtown area 'a certain level of vibrancy 24 hours a day.'"
"'We've just been bombarded with response from people who want these units,' said developer John McGrew. 'There's a lot of interest, and much of it is from out of state. High-end mixed-use condos have certainly become popular in Seattle and in markets like Vancouver, Wash.'"
The Kitsap Sun from Washington. "Houses are still moving in Kitsap County, albeit not at the past rapid pace. At 'The 400' in Bremerton, ...the price on some new condominiums has been slashed by 58 percent, from $259,000 to $109,000."
"Perhaps at the height of the housing market this 577-square-foot, one-bedroom, one-bath condo was worth $259,000 — but no more."
"Welcome to another slumping housing market. I'm sure the current slowdown has surprised those who think most investments, including houses, only move upward in value. Sorry, that's never been the case."
"New industry numbers released Wednesday show more houses and condominiums are going on the market in Kitsap County, but sales are slowing. According to (the) Northwest MLS, there were 2,489 houses and condos on the market here in February, a 31 percent increase over February 2007."
"Pending sales, meanwhile, were down 38 percent to 240 this past month over February 2007, and closed sales dropped 11 percent, to 190. The trend was reflected across the state."
The Columbian from Washington. "Home sales in Clark County dropped to a 20-year low in February, a decline that now appears to be chipping away at the real estate community. 'The attrition rate for Realtors is extremely high,' said broker Randy Hunzeker."
"'We knew there was going to be some kind of purging,' Hunzeker said. 'But we still see new agents signing up every day.'"
"Prices also have softened, dropping by about 4 percent from last February’s median of $255,000 to a median selling price of $244,900 last month."
"Sandy Hendrick, executive director of the Clark County Association of Realtors, said he was not surprised by the February figures from benchmarks, which tracks all recorded home sales in Clark County for the month."
"'A sale recorded at the courthouse is a trailing indicator of what is actually going on in the market,' he said, calling late December and January extremely slow months for home sales. 'The February closings are just confirming what was happening,' he said."
The Whitefish Pilot from Montana. "A slowdown in local construction and real estate sales is real, and it could be a harbinger of more serious economic problems, a Whitefish financial analyst says. Jim Stack says he sees problems already in the Flathead Valley and Whitefish housing markets."
"'Whitefish is sitting on a powder keg,' he said. 'There's a huge number of unsold homes. The planning department was shocked at the recent drop in building permits and subdivision applications.'"
"Stack said there is currently a five-year supply of homes on the market selling for more than $500,000."
"'Normally, a 12-month supply is bad,' he said. 'This is what drives the Whitefish economy -- from builders, Realtors and title companies to furniture stores.'"
"About one-sixteenth of the area's homes are on the market, and home sales have dropped by about 32 percent in Whitefish and 24 percent in the county. 'Prices are last to drop,' Stack said. 'The problem first shows up in inventory. Then builders see a slow down and Realtors see a drop in sales. Then prices fall.'"
"Stack points out that in 2000, the median price for a home in the Flathead was about 20 percent below the national median price. The numbers have flip-flopped since then -- the median price in the Flathead is now about 20 percent above the national median."
"'We've gone from being a good buy to being more expensive,' he said."
"'Seventy percent of the new jobs in Whitefish that were created in the past 7-8 years are construction-related,' he said. 'If there's a bust, there will be repercussions.'"
The Register Guard from Oregon. "The signs were even clearer in February that the Lane County real estate market is tipping toward the down side. The median price for a Lane County home fell 6 percent, compared to a year ago, to $220,000, according to the Regional MLS."
"The number of pending sales fell or were flat in every neighborhood across Eugene and Springfield, compared to a year ago, except for the Thurston area where sales at a Hayden Homes development likely preserved this single bright spot."
"With a surplus inventory — it would take nine months to sell the 1,925 homes on the market now — even some of the most optimistic real estate professionals don’t expect the prices now being fetched by existing homes to hold forever."
"A lot has changed since June 2007 when Lane County witnessed its pinnacle median price of $243,300 — or 10 percent more than today’s median. 'A year ago we had bidding wars. Today, it’s a totally different market out there,' said broker Wendy Milbrett."
"Builders are preparing to entice prospective buyers of new homes with bonuses such as $50,000 in cash or a BMW, said Rex Ballenger, president of the Springfield Board of Realtors. 'You’re going to see an advertisement on that real soon,' he said."
"The precursors to a stronger real estate market — jobs and population growth — are looking pretty puny themselves. Lane County jobs are growing at an annual rate of 0.5 percent, said Brian Rooney, regional labor economist with the Employment Department."
"Since home prices in California took a tumble over the past year, the stream of transplants coming with suitcases full of cash from home sales there is likely to have slowed, Rooney said."
"Milbrett and her sellers have had to adjust. She listed a house six months ago at $209,000 and steadily dropped the price over time — to $206,000, $199,000 then $195,000. This week, she’s finally closing on that house at $190,000, she said. 'A year ago this time (the seller) would have gotten the $209,000.'"
The Bend Bulletin. "Renaissance Ridge, a partially-developed, 210-lot subdivision in southwest Bend might be headed for foreclosure, according to documents filed with the Deschutes County Clerk’s office, but developer Randy Sebastian said he’s working hard to prevent it."
"'It’s not a Bend issue, not a Renaissance Homes issue; it’s a lender that wants out of the builder/developer market, and they don’t want to extend their loans,' said Sebastian. 'I’ve got my life savings out there.'"
"Sixty-four homes in the subdivision have been built or are under construction. Deschutes County land records — in which the subdivision is legally recorded as Aspen Rim — show that 36 homes have been purchased."
"Homes in the development currently range from $369,000 to $590,000."
"The development has dangled some incentives for prospective home buyers in recent months. It also shaved prices on its homes in February by 11 percent to 20 percent, according to The Bulletin’s archives."
"Renaissance Ridge homeowner Bill Ormsby, a Southern California retiree who has lived in the development for a year, said he has wondered about the profusion of empty lots in the development but said he feels confident he and his wife won’t be leaving."
"'We’re gonna stay put,' said Ormsby. 'It shouldn’t affect us too much.'"
"Elsewhere in Bend, Buena Vista Custom Homes has rented 18 of the 29 homes in its Forum Meadows development since efforts to sell the homes in mid-December at auction failed to produce a single sale, said Mike Higgins, a spokesman for the Lake Oswego-based builder."
"'It was done in a loss position, but it was better than the alternative,' Higgins said. 'If we can’t sell them, we’ve got to do something. We looked to auction the homes, but it didn’t work. Builders right now are just trying to make the mess go away.'"
"Homebuyers and builders have moved from overconfidence to fear of a sluggish market that won’t recover, said Peter Storton, the owner and broker of RE/MAX Town & Country Realty in Sisters."
"'The next 12 to 18 months will be a reverse of what we have seen,' Storton said. 'We have to hang on to the customers that we have and convince people that it’s a good time to buy.'"
Oregon Public Broadcasting. "Bend is $20 million in the red. For years, the city relied on huge increases in building permits and fees to pay its bills, but now, Bend's housing market is collapsing. And one local journalist is questioning whether the hometown newspaper was too much of a booster. Ethan Lindsey reports."
"David Fisher covered the industry for the Bend Bulletin as it went from boom to bust."
"David Fisher: '...you gotta realize that every editor in a market like this, is well aware that real estate and development is the 800 pound gorilla. A great deal of the newspaper's wealth flows from the health of the real estate and development industry. And in the past year that has started, first slowly, and now more rapidly, to go away.'"
"Industry leaders wanted to change peoples' perceptions, so at an annual real estate summit last month, they rolled out a turnaround ad campaign."
"Tim Knopp, executive VP of the Central Oregon Builders' Association: 'Day after day, if people are reading negative national stories, it makes them think maybe this isn't a good time to buy, maybe I should wait. And in 30 years, this is the best buyer's market I've seen.'"
"John Costa is the editor-in-chief of the Bulletin. Costa points to positive and negative real estate stories the newspaper has run before, during, and after the housing bubble."
"Central Oregon clearly relies on real estate development. Oregon job statistics show real estate and construction employment made up 17 percent of local jobs last year. That's noticeably higher than the state average."
"Real estate and construction are two of the biggest advertisers in Bend says builders' association executive Tim Knopp. Tim Knopp: 'We want to make sure that the media knows that if things are going bad for the entire industry, its going to affect them as well. And it has. We just need balance. We'd have discussions with any media outlet about that and I think they want to do that.'"