We're Off The Cliff In California
The LA Times reports from California. "Southern California home prices are now 19% below their peak last year. Home values also plunged 19% during the last real estate bust, but that was over a six-year period ending in 1997. Prices have now fallen just as much in less than a year. Betty Palacios is trying to sell her Upland condo for $140,000, or close to 40% less than what similar units in her complex were selling for two years ago."
"Palacios has owned her condo since 1991 but still expects to take a loss because of home equity loans and refinancings over the years. Palacio said she had received only one offer, for $90,000. 'I'm keeping my fingers crossed' for a higher bid, said Palacios, who has already dropped her asking price once. 'It's all I can do now.'"
"Billie Tircuit, 26, has already taken a hit. She bought a house in Altadena two years ago with 100% financing at the urging of her husband, a mortgage broker, she said. His income vanished with the housing crash, and the couple soon could not make their payments."
"Tircuit split with her husband and unloaded the house last month for $455,000 -- a 22% loss and less than what she owed on the property."
"For Tircuit, the real estate crash has been painful but also an instructive lesson in practical economics. 'We had no business buying that house,' she said, 'but everybody was buying a house, and the loans were there. Don't get caught in the hype. It bit me hard.'"
The Union Tribune. "San Diego County's housing market deepened its slump last month, with the median home price now down 20 percent from its peak in November 2005."
"In Carlsbad, renters Bill Smith and his wife see the bursting of the real estate bubble as an opportunity to enter the housing market. Smith said he knew a major price correction was coming."
"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan 'said there was no bubble, but I had a feeling that things were going in that direction,' Smith recalled. 'We decided to bide our time. Sure enough, it did happen. We realized that it was the time to make our move.'"
"Smith said he recently bought a 1,190-square-foot 'beautiful starter home' in Oceanside for $250,000. It was a reduction of nearly $100,000 from what the previous owner paid in 2005, near the height of the housing boom."
The Desert Sun. "A total of 2,147 homes sold in February, down from 3,057 for February 2007, while the median price of a home in Riverside County last month was $325,000, down from $410,000 in the same month a year ago, according to DataQuick."
"'Sales remained extraordinarily low, and a significant portion of what did sell was in areas beset by foreclosure activity,' said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president. 'Mainly it's in the inland markets, often in newer suburbs, where prices got pumped up artificially with the sort of crazy loans that no longer exist.'"
The Ventura County Star. "Ventura County sales of new and existing homes and condominiums plunged 32.8 percent in February, to 495, a record low for February. Ventura County's median sales price was $445,000, a 23.8 percent slide from $584,000 in February 2007. The median hasn't been as low since hitting $446,000 in March 2004 — when prices were flying up in a hot market."
"Most homes that are selling are bank-owned, said Kay Wilson-Bolton, a foreclosure specialist and broker. Foreclosure sales comprise about 80 percent of her business."
"With the significant spike in foreclosures, Wilson-Bolton said she's getting about two or three bank-owned properties a week. 'The number of foreclosures that are coming to me is accelerating,' she said. 'It's about 10 times as many as there were a year ago. I don't see any letup at all.'"
The Press Democrat. "Home prices plunged to their lowest levels in four years in February as sales slowed to a crawl in Sonoma County and across the Bay Area. Sonoma County's median price tumbled to $400,000, down 22.3 percent from a year ago, the biggest drop in the Bay Area. It is the lowest since February 2004, when the median price stood at $390,000."
"'With the amount of inventory and the prices, some of these properties just seem like great bargains. I was actually hoping for a little more activity. It just didn't happen,' said Timothy Hedges, broker in Sebastopol."
"More and more homeowners are handing over their keys to lenders, unable to sell their homes for enough money to pay off their loans. More than 1 in 4 homes sold in Sonoma County in February had been in foreclosure sometime in the past 14 months, according to DataQuick."
"'With the Federal Reserve trying to pour Drano into the lending system, it will be interesting to see how things play out if jumbo financing does come back online. Theoretically, there could be enough pent-up demand, enough catch-up activity at the high end, to result in a statistically bizarre record median home price,' dataquick's Prentice said."
"'What we're seeing now is the final capitulation of all these people that have been holding onto these houses trying to eke out the last dollar. They're realizing they may have to lower it to get it done. But then if they're going to move up, that property becomes cheaper,' said Jeff Schween, an agent in Santa Rosa."
The Mercury News. "Two newly built homes are on the market on the same street in the same development. One is a bank-owned property offered at $1 million, and the other is listed by homeowners at $1.5 million. Guess which one received 10 offers and has a sale pending?"
"You're right. And most of the buyers didn't care that it was a foreclosed property."
"'The buy-down isn't working, the free car isn't working,' said Joe Davis, a real estate agent in Pleasanton and the listing agent for the $1,074,900, five-bedroom, three-bath home. 'Price is working, period. If there's an REO (or bank-owned property) or short sale on your street, then consider that when you list your house.'"
"The median list price in San Francisco was $809,500, while the average REO was $616,743, a difference of 24 percent. In San Mateo, the median listing price was $799,000, and the median REO was $626,500, a 22 percent difference."
"Differences were smaller in counties where foreclosed properties were common. Contra Costa and Alameda counties had listing prices 12 and 9 percent higher, respectively, than foreclosed properties, while hard-hit San Joaquin County actually had listing prices 6 percent below median bank-owned home prices."
"Ed Jeffry (co-)founder of the National Association of Responsible Loan Officers, helped a client buy a home in Inglewood in Southern California, said that both she and the seller agreed to $525,000. But when it was reappraised, it was found to be worth $499,000."
"'It's almost to the buyer's advantage to cancel the sale and rent for three months,' he said. 'Real estate is all about making money on the buy.'"
"And many buyers are threatening to walk away from deals if they feel they are paying too much. 'Buyers don't mind appraisers coming in less, and sellers don't have a choice,' said mortgage broker Jay Damato in Walnut Creek. 'It happened the other way, too. (In the housing boom), it would appraise for a higher price, and sellers would say, 'Too bad, make up the difference.'"
"Mike Tabacco, a certified residential real estate appraiser in Walnut Creek, said that in some areas there are few nondistressed properties to appraise."
"'Since October in Antioch, there were only 13 sales in the $500,000 to $600,000 range, and nine of those were short sales and foreclosures,' he said."
"Davis, who also sells bank-owned properties, said that speculation fed the foreclosure market in San Ramon. The client who lost the home had bought three houses in the master-planned community of Windemere, he said."
"While some sellers have expressed animosity at his property's lower price, he said builders are also cutting prices and adding incentives. 'Personally, I recommend to all my clients not to sell right now,' he said. 'Right now is the best time to buy.'"
The Marin Independent Journal. "The median price of a single-family home in Marin sank to $830,000 in February, but there's no cause for concern, a real estate research firm reported Thursday."
"Just 136 single-family homes and condominiums sold, down from 228 in February 2007 - but up slightly from 122 sales in January. The median price for a single-family home was down from $929,500 in February 2007 and $990,000 in January. In the condo market where the median price fell to $430,000 in February from $560,000 in January."
"Broker Patti Cohn in Greenbrae, says the market has hit bottom. 'In Marin County - without condos and without Novato - 46 percent of the properties that sold in the last 30 days sold at 98 percent of the asking price,' Cohn said. 'Mostly what's happening is there is a shortage of inventory.'"
"'Marin has nothing to worry about,' said John Karevoll, a DataQuick analyst. Most people are just waiting this out. Once the turmoil in the jumbo loan market settles down, and we expect that to happen this month or next, then we will get a true picture.'"
From Reuters. "With home mortgage foreclosures escalating, there is a dearth of investor demand for bonds backed by many mortgages. In addition, lenders are rejecting many more borrowers and house prices are falling."
"'The horse is out of the barn on this cycle and recession,' said Phil Immel, broker in Dana Point."
"'We're off the cliff,' said Immel. 'We think we have a parachute, but we can't find the ripcord to land safely. It really will get a lot uglier for the next year across America, and it should bottom out about a year from now.'"
Investors Business Daily. "Easy come, easy go? The housing crisis has come to this: just walking away. As home values sink, people are abandoning homes, viewing their ownership as hopeless or worthless."
"'They can't refinance, because they don't have any equity,' said Rick Sharga, VP of RealtyTrac, 'and they can't sell, because values have dropped.'"
"In Stockton, Calif., a 'staggering' 77% of homes bought a year ago are 'underwater" with negative equity, says Stan Humphries, VP at Zillow.com. The percentage is nearly 60% in Las Vegas, above 40% in Miami and nearly 40% in Los Angeles."
"It's not just new owners. Plenty of people who rode the boom have spent their home equity gains. 'People have been (cash-out) refinancing their house in order to sustain their standard of living,' Humphries said. 'Say they bought five years ago and have been pulling equity out of the house.'"
"Counting new delinquencies and in-process foreclosures, 7.86% of all people with a home mortgage are late on payments, said MBA Chief Economist Doug Duncan in a press briefing Thursday. 'As equity is declining, there's an incentive to walk away,' he said."
"Owners who could pay but still walk away may be contributing to an acceleration in problem loans, Wachovia's chief risk officer, Don Truslow, said Jan. 22."
"'A lot of these current losses have been coming out of California,' he said. 'They've been from people (who have) otherwise had the capacity to pay but have basically just decided not to.'"
"Walkaways aren't new. They happened amid the early-1990s swoon of prices in overheated markets such as Southern California."
"But back then, foreclosures typically arose amid unforeseen changes in the economic condition of the borrowers, says Charles Dannis."
"'This time we don't have that true economic change in the borrower's condition,' said Dannis, who also teaches real estate at Southern Methodist University. 'You have a collapse of a housing market that most people really attribute to speculation, or because people are buying more house than they can afford because of the various exotic mortgage products out there.'"