Buyers Haven't Gone Away, They're Just Waiting
The Patriot News reports from Pennsylvania. "The nationwide housing slowdown that took hold in 2007 might be showing up in the midstate. In the first quarter of 2008, the number of homes sold dropped 21.6 percent from the first quarter of 2007. It was the lowest first quarter for home sales since 2003. And for the first time since the national slowdown took hold last year, the average price of a midstate home sale has dropped."
"In late 2006, Ryan Sweet, an associate economist with Moody's Economy.com, predicted housing prices wouldn't fall in the Harrisburg area. Since then, economic conditions across the nation have gotten worse than experts anticipated."
"'The Harrisburg housing market is in the midst of a correction. The labor market in Harrisburg is slowing, and job growth is on the verge of stalling,' Sweet said. Those factors, coupled with tighter lending standards nationwide, mean 'demand has fallen more than what we expected,' he said. 'You will see prices decline.'"
"'Sellers were believing the market was the same as a year or two ago, and buyers were wondering why there was no change in price. Now, sellers are starting to recognize they've got to be more realistic in their price, and buyers aren't going to be able to steal,' said Frederick Briggs, an associate broker in Hampden Twp. 'There has to be some negotiating process. We believe it's coming very close to where the market value really is.'"
"Real estate agent Kathy Sumski said the key was the house's good condition and its price compared with those of similar homes on the market. 'You can't have that fluff range we used to have. You have to price it on the money,' Sumski said."
The Baltimore Sun from Maryland. "March is usually the month when homebuyers get serious, when sales rocket out of the winter doldrums - but not this year." "Home sales in the Baltimore area last month fell 34 percent from a year earlier, the seventh straight month of declines roughly in that range, Metropolitan Regional Information Systems reported yesterday. The average sales price slid almost 3 percent to about $297,700, or $8,900 less than a year ago."
"A larger-than-usual jump in area sales from January to February had fanned hopes that the housing market was approaching a bottom. But that was dashed by the latest data: The 22 percent increase from February to March was the smallest for that period since Rockville-based MRIS began tracking local sales nine years ago."
"'Pretty bleak,' said John McClain, a senior fellow at George Mason University. 'A lot of people are still on the sidelines. ... People think the economy's in a recession, and it probably is.'"
The Daily News Record from Virginia. "Sales of new and existing homes dropped 22.2 percent in the first three months of 2008, according to the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of Realtors MLS."
"Meanwhile, the median price of a home rose 9.2 percent to $202,000. For the local real estate market, it was the slowest first quarter since 2001, when Realtors closed deals on 186 homes at a median price of $124,800."
"The remainder of 2008 will be 'just OK,' said Larry Martin, co-owner of Re/Max Performance Realty in Harrisonburg. Martin has been in the real estate business since 1981 and remembers two previous downturns in the market, 1981-82 and 1991-92. The current slump is longer and deeper than the previous two, he said."
"'I expect some recovery in 2009 and a strong recovery in 2010 and 2011,' Martin said. 'Our buyers haven't gone away, they're just waiting.'"
"Nearly half of all first quarter activity, sales of 91 homes, occurred in March, according to Scott Rogers, associate broker in Harrisonburg."
"'The flip side is that 183 people put their houses on the market in March,' Rogers said. 'So the net inventory also increased in that same time period.'"
"Nationally, the housing market is at a 10-year low, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. Home prices are higher than a decade ago, but people's ability to afford a median priced home is about the same in 2008 as it was in 1998, Yun said."
"'The soft housing demand is psychological,' he said. 'It is a crisis of confidence.'"
"But prices are 'out of whack' with household income, said Chris Gingrich, professor of economics at Eastern Mennonite University. For at least a generation prior to 2000, the ratio of home prices to household income was about 2.8-to-1, Gingrich explained."
"'For 30 years, that ratio hardly moved at all,' Gingrich said. 'After 2001, the ratio skyrocketed to about 4-to-1.'"
"In 2005, the ratio of home prices to income in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County was 5.6-to-1. That's based on a Census Bureau estimate of $31,100 median household income and median home price from the Realtors' association of $173,035."
"The market was overconfident five years ago, Gingrich said. 'Housing prices have come unglued to income,' Gingrich said. 'And it's not rocket science to determine how you pay your mortgage.'"
The Roanoke Times from Virginia. "Historic tax credits and the benefits of a city-created enterprise zone likely are drawing developers to this area that stretches down Salem and Campbell avenues to Fifth Street. Already several developers have landed rows of condominiums in structures up and down these streets."
"At least three other projects are in the works, creating what the city's economic development administrator, Brian Brown, said is a synergy of urban living in an underutilized district."
"'Condo developments tend to feed off one another,' he said."
"Genesis Mansions is creating Mansion Square Condominiums, with 30 condos at 501 Salem Ave. Each will have one to three bedrooms and measure 1,600 to 4,000 square feet."
"There will be other amenities that are unique to Roanoke's slew of downtown housing units, including an indoor pool and hot tub and a fitness center, said Ron Schenker, project manager. The condos will sell for more than $300,000 each, he said."
"City real estate records show that Susanne Helbig, an owner of Genesis Mansions, purchased the property for $425,000 last year."
"Condos aren't the only ventures that are popping up as investment and revitalization efforts in this section of downtown. The YMCA is planning a 10,000-square-foot expansion to its Church Avenue facility."
"And Integrated Imaging has a contract to purchase a structure at 419 Salem Ave. It wants to move its office there by December, said Chuck Hawthorne, a partner in the company."
"The firm welcomes prospects for a revival in this district. 'We feel like it's a really good time to get into that area from an investment standpoint,' Hawthorne said. 'Hopefully, more restaurants will fill in there, once there's actual residents.'"
"The YMCA also considers nearby downtown living projects as benefits to its business. 'What downtown living does, it kind of brings a 24-hour vitality to an area,' said Cal Johnson, executive director of the Roanoke Valley YMCA."
"'Because the YMCA's open 16 hours a day, it's great to be surrounded by people who are living downtown,' he said."
The Herald Leader from Kentucky. "If location, location, location are the first three rules of buying and selling real estate, then timing must be No. 4."
"Hundreds of loft apartments and other condominiums are going on the market in downtown Lexington, just as the national real estate recession rolls over the Bluegrass."
"For-sale signs are visible at Main & Rose Lofts, the largest of the downtown projects. They are in windows of apartments that have never been occupied. Some developers are offering incentives, like a free garage at Kimball House Square and low-cost loans at Artek Lofts, to sweeten deals and lure buyers."
"Liens have been filed against three downtown projects -- The 500's on Main, Kimball House Square and NewPast on Main -- which means developers and contractors are having disputes over money. Lenders have tightened requirements for loans for both developers and condo buyers following the national collapse of the subprime mortgage market and some major lenders."
"'Everybody is running scared,' said Rob Parker, developer of The Mark Lofts at Woodland Park. He sold 10 of The Mark's 36 units at one event in March 2007, but only eight in the year since then."
"'The market has definitely slowed down,' agreed Kimball House developer Marc King, who has sold 17 of 39 condos."
"'The market is flooded with units right now,' said Greg Buchanan, a Realtor who represents Kimball House Square. And another wave of condos could be on the way."
"Meanwhile, mortgage companies are becoming more tight-fisted, less willing to loan money, said Buchanan. 'People are not able to get certified for loans,' he said, 'because the credit market is a mess.'"
"Louisville developer Bill Weyland said lending agencies are demanding 'a lot more proof' from developers that they have a market for their units. 'They want to know if the absorption rate is really going to be there,' he said. 'They are really concerned about making sure the developer knows who they are marketing to' -- and that means doing market surveys and getting hard numbers."
"No one can escape, Parker said. 'The economy is hurting everybody.'"
"'Probably very few communities are not experiencing some sort of slowdown,' said Phil Scherer, whose Commercial Kentucky Inc. is building the Fleur de Lis loft project in downtown Louisville. 'What you have to understand is it may be a slowdown from record levels of activity, sales and appreciation' between 2004 into 2007, he said."
"Raphael Bostic, a real estate professor at the University of Southern California who is often quoted by the national media, said 'the condo market has pretty much fallen on hard times across the board. They are weak on the West Coast ... and eastern cities as well.'"
"Bostic said condos are 'the most volatile' of residential properties, because they are often purchased as investments and for recreational reasons. Particularly hard hit are the 'flippers' -- investors who plan to resell quickly for a profit -- and first-time home buyers who may be unnerved by price declines, Bostic added."
"An estimated 30 percent of the units at Main & Rose Lofts were bought by investors to flip, said Bret Caller, one of the project's developers. Those flippers might account for several of the 35 units at Main & Rose listed for sale...and the for-sale signs in the windows of some unoccupied units."
"Asked about sales, Caller said, 'We have sold 75 (of 96) units; they are out of our name.' He said closings on several more units will occur in the next 30 to 60 days. He acknowledged that the for-sale signs in windows where big S's were posted until recent weeks 'doesn't look good.'"
"Debbie and Tom Westerfield of Versailles bought a 1,500-square-foot unit at The 500's as an investment before the building was completed. They paid $280,000 and spent an additional $35,000 to upgrade fixtures and other amenities."
"The Westerfields think now is not the best time to sell, so they plan to use their condo for entertaining and then rent or sell it for the Alltech FEI World Equestrian Games in 2010."
"Michael Canan bought a unit in July from a flipper at The 500's on Main. 'He (the flipper) had to close or it would go back to the developer, and I bought it from him,' Canan said."
"Asked if his unit is for sale, Canan said, 'I'm in sales. Anything I've got is for sale.'"
The Tennessean. "The number of homes on the market in Middle Tennessee started the spring at record levels. The region's housing inventory rose to 23,730 properties as of March 31, up 6 percent from the end of February and up 24 percent compared with a year ago, the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors said."
"Driving inventory higher was a sharp drop in sales, which fell 29 percent in March compared with the same month a year ago. The 2,227 deals closed in March were the fewest for the month since 2000."
"Few sellers have slashed their prices here, but those putting their homes on the market should not expect to make a large profit, agents said. 'Prices are a little bit softer,' said Karen Hoff, an agent in East Nashville. 'Buyers get a little better price, and for sellers, it means they make a little bit less.'"
"The downturn has already taken a toll on builders. Two local firms have filed for bankruptcy, and others have sharply cut back on construction."
"Only 1,051 building permits were taken out in January and February, according to MarketGraphics Research Group Inc. In 2007, 2,486 permits were taken out during the same two months."
"'We may see some downward price pressure in some spots, but I don't expect to see any fire, house-burning bargains,' said Bill Ford, an economist at Middle Tennessee State University and a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta."
"'It's not like in other parts of the country that I travel to,' Ford said."