Floating On The Bottom
The Ahwatukee Foothills News reports from Arizona. "No one says that the Arizona housing market has recovered, but it just may be that the free-fall of values and glacial sales have bottomed out, at least according to some real estate agents and the Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business. 'A lot of homes are now priced right, which is helping,' said Dawn Workman, an Ahwatukee Foothills resident and East Valley real estate agent."
"For R.G. Argabright, also an East Valley real estate agent, the market is still tough, but he sees some positives with prices holding steady. 'We may be floating on the bottom, (instead of falling),' Argabright laughed. 'The only negative we have is the darn foreclosures.'"
"Workman has done the classic of turning lemons into lemonade, by offering tours of foreclosed properties to generate sales. 'I've been selling a lot of foreclosures lately.'"
"Workman said that it's not uncommon for a 1,800-square-foot three-bedroom, two-bath home to sell for under $100,000. But financing may still put the brakes on the recovery, if there even is one."
"Argabright said the days of 100 percent financing are gone and that prospective home buyers need around 5 percent down, or $5,000 for every $100,000 of home, and must have good credit before they can expect a home loan."
The Arizona Republic. "Home values have dropped about 20 percent Valleywide since the bubble burst over a year ago. Power Ranch in Gilbert is one of the more extreme examples -- real estate flippers drove prices for a 4,500-square-foot home as high as $875,000 two years ago. Then came the bust, catching many home flippers short."
"Ivano Panelli can see a line of for-sale signs blocking the view from his home. 'This has been for sale for three years, right here,' he says, pointing at the vacant home next door."
"Today the bank is selling that home for $479,000. The owners of the home across the street – the very same model – paid $875,000 two years ago."
"'The whole subprime crisis is literally melting all over the place,' says Anthony Sanders, a professor of fiinance and real estate at Arizona State University."
"Home-building permits in metro Phoenix were flat again in March as the housing market continued to search for a bottom. Last month, 1,278 new-home permits were issued Valley-wide, RL Brown's Phoenix Housing Market Letter reports."
"'We think that the evidence is building that we are seeing the bottom of the new-home market in the metro Phoenix area,' Brown said."
The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. "An analysis of 4,754 floor plans shows a 9 percent increase in price over the past four months, while 60 percent saw prices remain unchanged."
"Some builders raising prices are trying to create a sense of urgency for buyers, said John Fioramonti, senior managing director of Meyers Builder Advisors in Scottsdale. Fioramonti said one developer in north Scottsdale has seen a big jump in foot traffic through the sales office, but people aren't taking the plunge. They're waiting for prices to drop further, he said."
"'The builders are trying to create a sense of the bottom has been hit,' he said."
"The hammering and drilling have stopped, the sales office is shut down and rumors are rampant in homeowner Andrew Kerr’s Maricopa neighborhood. About two weeks ago, financially strapped builder Engle Homes closed its Province sales office and 11 other field offices Valleywide, also removing the communities from its Web site."
"Now, residents like Kerr worry what will become of their partially finished community. 'There’s a certain level of frustration and anxiety,' he said. 'A lot of people really understand there’s nothing they can do about the situation.'"
"Local industry analysts say the closures are the first sign that a builder could bail. 'That’s the lifeblood,' said John Fioramonti. 'Everything else doesn’t matter if you don’t have sales.'"
"Roughly 880 out of more than 1,500 homes planned at Province were sold as of February, according to the research firm. Valleywide, Engle’s more than 30 communities have been averaging 1.7 sales a month, compared with three to five sales for other builders, Fioramonti said."
"Engle’s financial troubles aren’t unique in a flagging housing market and economy. Valley Builders have been dumping thousands of home lots to free up cash and placate anxious stockholders."
"Capital Pacific Homes recently sold 209 lots in Maricopa to a local investor for $4.9 million, according to Business Real Estate Weekly."
"Province homeowner Linda Demain said she believes Engle has been straightforward and doesn’t listen to the rumors whirling around the neighborhood. Engle has put a lot of time and effort into this project and, hopefully, it will be able to see it through, she said."
"It doesn’t do any good to worry, she said. 'Honestly, what choice is there?' she said. 'You can’t stay home and brood every day.'"
"Half of all homes sold in Pinal County last month were bank-owned, compared with 37.5 percent in January, according to local analyst RL Brown. In Maricopa County, 22.3 percent of all sales were homes that had been repossessed by lenders."
"Last year’s wave of foreclosures has only grown in 2008 with thousands of Valley families defaulting on their mortgages every month. Agents say the banks have so many foreclosures and REOs to deal with that it’s sometimes taking months to get a response on a short sale offer."
The Review Journal from Nevada. "Like many Las Vegas residents in search of a sweet deal on a foreclosed home, Mike Simpson walked away disheartened and discouraged after wasting his time at a recent foreclosure auction."
"The starting bid for the six-bedroom house on half an acre near Alta Drive and Valley View Boulevard was $219,000. Simpson was prepared to offer $375,000. To his surprise and without prior notice, the home was pulled off the auction block."
"'Come to find out somebody made a deal with the bank and the deal fell through,' Simpson said. 'I spent 21/2 hours there on a Saturday. Why didn't they put it on the deletion list when I first walked in?'"
"'The banks are ready to rock and roll,' said Dave Webb, CEO of (auction firm) Hudson & Marshall. 'If it's a reasonable offer, they're ready to take it. Now, they're not idiots. They're not going to take 40 cents on the dollar...The longer these properties stay on the market, the more motivated they are.'"
"The latest foreclosure statistics from Foreclosures.com showed 6,152 preforeclosure filings for Clark County in March, more than double the 2,813 filings in the same month a year ago."
"One buyer who requested anonymity said real estate agents are biased in their assessment of auctions because buyers don't need their services. She was able to buy a Pulte home in Southern Highlands at a Hudson & Marshall auction last year for $278,000, or about $102 a square foot. The bank was cooperative and did not try to 'jack up the price,' she said."
"Her second-choice home also closed escrow at the auction price of $283,500. It had sold a year earlier for about $500,000."
"Banks that have properties for sale sometimes place 'shills' in the audience to bid the price up, said Ron Clark, CEOof Rainbow Equity Investments in Oceanside, Calif. 'Auctions can be a very treacherous place for a novice with a full-time job,' Clark said. 'You walk into an arena where you've got some slick, sharp operators. There's all kinds of ways to fleece the guy who's a novice and thinks all those banks are in trouble.'"
"With foreclosures mounting and the housing market reeling, banks should be 'humbled' and welcoming people with open doors, Clark said. 'They're not there yet. They will be in six months or a year,' he said."
The Las Vegas Business Press from Nevada. "Southern Nevada's building boom is bust and the foreclosure chickens are home to roost. Some industry experts now wonder if other consequences arising from the valley's long golden age of construction are also coming back to haunt valley consumers."
"The number of local construction-defect lawsuits has risen alongside the valley's population. County officials say that at the height of the building boom some inspectors were doing as many as 70 inspections a day."
"In response to reports that county building inspectors were conducting as many as 120 inspections a day during 2004 and 2006, Clark County Director of Development Services Ron Lynn said those numbers never got higher than between 60 and 70."
"'They might have been given that workload, but they weren't expected to do all those,' he said of the 120 figure."
"'The problem is when you get to frame inspections, structural inspections, or the roof,' said construction consultant Neil Opfer. 'That will take more time.'"
"But even for the least time-consuming inspections, Opfer said the idea that one inspector would face 120 assignments a day stunned him. 'That blew my mind," the consultant said. 'I think it is hard to do 120 a day and even have any type of quality. What's happening to get those numbers is they are just doing a real spot check.'"
In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. "Maybe this is Las Vegas' version of the canary in the coal mine when it comes to the commercial real estate market. Last week, NAI Horizon confirmed speculation to In Business Las Vegas that the commercial brokerage has closed its Las Vegas office."
"Terry Martin-Denning, chief operating officer with NAI Horizon in Phoenix, which oversaw the Las Vegas office, cites the economy as the reason behind the closure. The slowdown started 18 months ago, and there haven't been enough deals to sustain the operation, and activity continues to trend downward, she says."
"'The current investors have fed the beast as much as they can,' Martin-Denning says. 'I think we are seeing a lot of shakeout, and no one knows what's going to happen. There are a lot of uncertainties with the economy. You have seen some title companies that rely on real estate transactions downsizing or closing.'"
"'We hear disturbing news about the gaming industry, and the latest revenues are down for the first time. Gaming brings people and people need offices. The whole focus of the economic base in Las Vegas is gaming. That news was a concern,' Martin-Denning says."
"A once red-hot concept that had investors salivating about the prospect of owning a piece of the Strip has cooled considerably. The idea behind buying a condo hotel was having a place one could call home, yet having help making their mortgage payments."
"The problem is the expectations of the buyers of condo hotel units aren't being met with revenue from the city's first two projects - the Platinum and Signature, a partnership of MGM Mirage and Turnberry."
"That led to a lawsuit by more than 40 investors who claim they were defrauded because they were promised profits from rental income and told by sales agents how the value of their units were likely to increase."
"'It is not a concept for this time,' said Paul Murad, a real estate broker and author of 'Manhattanizing Las Vegas.' 'It is a very difficult to finance if you are a developer and much more difficult for end users. In some cases, it is nearly impossible. Lenders are asking people to double their down payments.'"
"Murad said he has talked to investors who are planning to walk away from their deposits on condo hotels because the units have already depreciated and won't be the investment opportunities once imagined."
"Murad, who recently hosted a condo hotel symposium in Las Vegas, said a lack of understanding by lenders is contributing to the problems. Unlike a straight condo project, there is the variable of a hotel and that raises questions about how it will be managed."
"'Buyers are much more difficult to find,' Murad said. 'A lot of people have been burned on other condo hotel projects. The problem is their revenue expectations were unrealistic. They were caught up in the hype.'"
"The concept hasn't turned into what Phoenix-area resident Adam Goodman envisioned when he bought four units at Platinum. He said he learned it works for someone wanting to own a vacation resort and generate some income whenever they are not there."
"Barbara Granati-Smedley, a residential real estate broker in Las Vegas, said she bought her condo in Trump for use when her children come visit, but she also views it as an investment. She said she hopes that having her unit in the rental pool will help cover a portion of the mortgage."
"'I look at it as a great investment over a period of time,' Granati-Smedley said. 'It can't do anything but appreciate given that it is a quality Trump project. But this is not for someone who is not a risk-taker.'"
"Las Vegas real estate investor Glenn Pantone said he has shied away from the concept, which doesn't make sense as an investment to him. If someone pays $500,000 for a condo and the owner and hotel split the revenue 50-50, the hotel would need a 85 percent occupancy at $225 a night to break even. That's counting a 20 percent down interest-only loan, he said."
"'If it doesn't appreciate, there is no way to make money,' he said."
The Daily Herald from Utah. "Even though new home construction in northern Utah County has slowed dramatically, it could take longer for Lehi, Saratoga Springs and Eagle Mountain to get rid of their glut of unsold new homes because of a significant slowdown in sales in the first quarter, according to a report by Newreach."
"The number of unsold new homes and condominiums in Utah County skyrocketed 275 percent to 982 in the first quarter from a year ago, and is down slightly from 987 in the fourth quarter. Lehi led the state for the second consecutive quarter with the greatest number of unsold new homes, accounting for a whopping 263 units, followed closely by Saratoga Springs with 204 units and Eagle Mountain with 157 units."
"'Lehi, Saratoga Springs and Eagle Mountain had the lion share of homes under construction. The sheer amount of developable land in northern Utah County meant it has been a haven for builders. But as the market started to slow down, home sales also plunged in those cities,' said Todd Cook, Newreach's VP of research."
"The median asking prices for all existing residential types in March fell 12.7 percent to $289,900, from $331,913 a year ago, according to the Utah County Realtors. New home sellers also recognize that pricing is an issue, and are making adjustments accordingly, Cook said."
The Deseret News from Utah. "About 6 percent fewer Salt Lake County new homes and condos went unsold in the first quarter compared to the 2007 fourth quarter, but far more new homes are lingering on the market than a year ago."
"Statistics released by Salt Lake-based Newreach indicated that 977 new homes and condominiums were unsold in the first quarter, down from a record 1,037 in the prior quarter. But the first-quarter total last year was less than half that, at 437."
"How quickly the inventory is depleted depends on prices, Jason Eldredge, executive VP of sales for Newreach. added. The number of units below $325,000 will likely shrink, because they're still considered affordable."
"'There's still a fair amount of complete and unoccupied (homes),' Eldredge said, 'but we believe that by year-end, people who are looking for deals in this sub-325 bracket might be disappointed.'"
"The combined underconstruction and new-but-unsold figure of 2,088 represents about a nine-month supply of new housing inventory in Salt Lake County, based on 715 new-home closings in the first quarter."
"'The worst thing we could have had happen was to have the building sector continue to slap new homes down without any buyers,' Eldredge said. 'If you look at data in Nevada and Idaho, Utah looks great. The worst subdivision I've seen in Utah has 25 to 30 homes sitting there vacant with 'for sale' signs. In Boise, it wasn't uncommon to see 50-to-100-lot subdivisions, all finished, new, vacant. The same in Vegas. They continue to build. It's amazing.'"