Prices In Other Countries Were Even More Overvalued
I suggested the possible global housing bubble collapse as a weekend topic. "As a weakening housing market appears to be dragging the American economy into recession, the International Monetary Fund warned this week that home prices in other industrial countries were even more overvalued. The fund also concluded that central banks should pay close attention to home prices and consider raising interest rates when prices are rising rapidly."
"That conclusion is directly contrary to the established policy of most central banks, including the Federal Reserve, which ignores home prices when they are expanding."
One asked, "How will this affect the U.S.? Will it end the 'decoupling' scenario, where global growth prevents the U.S from spiraling downward? Will it cause the dollar to crash, as net savings countries have losses to cover back home?"
"Or will this cause the dollar to stabilize or even rise, as people conclude that all the other countries are skewed too? Finally, what does a global bubble, in places with different cultures and economic systems, say about human nature or our modern globalized society?"
A reply, "IMO Asian economies are decoupled from USA, but the financial systems are not. I don’t see how this scenario is dollar-positive."
More questions, "Lots of paper wealth is going away in the first world countries because of RE deflation. Will this be the end of emerging economies blistering growth?"
Another said, "What becomes of the Pound & Euro? England is in a much bigger mess than us. Houses went up many multiples more there, and the cost of living is absurd."
"German & Swiss citizens didn’t participate in the housing bubble, but their banks went all in. Ireland & Spain might just be the cause of the breakup of the Euro, as the other senior members are highly cognizant of the possibility of these 2 rotting apples, spoiling the rest of the barrel’s contents."
"Other tiny (NZ) or moderate bubbles (Australia & Canada) just add fuel to the financial fire. China doesn’t get talked about much on here, but friends that travel regularly there, tell tales of posh condos built on spec, that sit unoccupied for years, this on top of the Shanghai stock exchange falling almost 50%, recently."
"What does it all mean to each of us on an individual basis?"
From Bloomberg. "Thanks to Spain's slumping property market, house buyers are as popular as movie stars. Reporters outnumbered bidders as lot No. 1 hit the slate in Europe's first 'Dutch auction' for real estate last weekend in Madrid."
"Of 216 lots, 194 were withdrawn when they weren't purchased at the reserve price. One man, investor Manuel Sainz, bought almost half of everything sold."
"'Next stop Hollywood!' laughed Sainz, head of property company Las Terrazas de San Blas SA, as he fought off the press after buying 10 properties at discounts of as much as 30 percent. The event shows the depth of Spain's housing bust after prices tripled in the past decade."
Scotland on Sunday. "House prices in Scotland are now at a virtual standstill with the global credit crunch and the mortgage squeeze starting to affect owners throughout the country."
"Professor Gwilym Pryce, of the Urban Studies Department at Glasgow University, said: 'In real terms we are at zero growth now and what happens next depends on the wider economy...My worry is the lower end. Many more people own homes in Scotland than they did in the early 1990s and the level of mortgage indebtedness has been increasing. The bottom end of the market could be flooded with people wanting to sell.'"
"Mark Hordern, marketing manager at the GSPC, said: 'In the last two or three weeks the market has slowed noticeably. People still want mortgages to buy new homes, but it is increasingly difficult to get a mortgage to allow you to pursue the purchase. Effectively there are no 100% mortgages any more.'"
Trend Capital. "By the end of the year, the prices in the real estate market will increase by 12-20%, the Head of State Real Estate Register Service, Arif Garashov, said on 1 April.'"
"With regards to the activity of the market, Garashov said that although the market was stable over the recent period, it is impossible to consider the situation as stagnant."
"Many housing buildings are being constructed in almost every part of Baku. Considering that there are not such a large number of people in Azerbaijan, all apartments cannot be sold immediately."
"'In addition, it needs to take into consideration that those who urgently need apartment already acquired it and it is one of the reasons for stability in the market,' Garashov said."
"The public organization Participants of Real Estate Market stated that the average prices of apartments in Baku had exceeded $130,000 in February."
"Land scarcity, real-estate speculation and rapid urbanization are fueling soaring prices for graveyard plots. Chinese consumers, facing the fastest inflation in 11 years, are finding that the rising cost of living has reached into the afterlife as buying a graveyard plot becomes more expensive than a home."
"Five of the capital's major cemeteries charge as much as 30,000 yuan ($4,273) per square meter for a standard plot, compared with an average of 20,000 yuan per square meter for an apartment in the city center, the English-language China Daily reported today."
National Business Review. "A senior Cabinet minister has criticised banks for fuelling the housing debt boom and has suggested they have only themselves to blame. Agriculture Minister Jim Anderton said today that if house prices fell as much as the BNZ was warning, banks should look in the mirror."
"'Although wages and incomes in New Zealand have been growing quickly, they have not been growing at a pace that could keep up with inflating house prices,' the minister said. 'The banks have provided the fuel that has pushed up house prices over a fairly long period now.'"
"'It's all very well to warn now that house prices could fall. But where was the BNZ a year ago when it was maintaining another 14 percent increase in indebtedness? It's a bit rich for the pot to now be calling the kettle black,' he said."
The Toronto Star. "Realtor Jim Common has been riding high on one of the most bullish markets in Canadian history. Just don't ask him about this year. 'It's been miserable,' the ReMax agent said. 'Buyers just seem stopped dead in their tracks.'"
"The Royal Bank of Canada released a forecast for Ontario, saying the province was 'teetering' on recession as certain sectors of the economy, particular manufacturing, are hit hard by the soaring Canadian dollar."
"A report by the bank last month also noted a 'significant shift,' with the proportion of Canadians planning to buy a home in the next two years falling to 23 per cent, down 5 percentage points compared with 2007."
The Star Phoenix. "Saskatoon house prices appear to have eclipsed Edmonton's prices in the first three months of the year, but a local real estate sales manager says average family income here can't pay for Edmonton-level house prices."
"Royal LePage's national quarterly report notes 'thriving Saskatoon' saw year-over-year house prices on the west side of the city jump 66 per cent in the past year."
"That's the biggest increase anywhere in Canada, but local Royal LePage sales manager Norm Fisher sees the ever-rising prices city-wide as a double-edged sword. 'When an average family income can't service a mortgage on an average home, you can't continue that indefinitely,' he said."
"While standard bungalows in Saskatoon sold for an average $340,000 in the first quarter -- a 50 per cent rise in one year -- the price in Edmonton was $330,000, a drop of 4.9 per cent. Standard two-storeys in Saskatoon sold for $395,000 on average in the first quarter of 2008 while the price for that type of house in Edmonton was pegged at $363,707."
The Leader Post. "Regina housing prices are continuing to go through the roof, with year-over-year increases ranging between 40 and 60 per cent, according to the latest quarterly report by Royal LePage."
"For example, the average price of a bungalow in Regina jumped 50 per cent to $237,000 in the first quarter of 2008 compared with the same period last year, said the report. Detached two-storey houses saw a 42-per-cent increase to $227,000, while condos saw the biggest price increase -- 57 per cent -- to $161,000, compared with the first quarter of 2007."
"Mike Duggleby, manager of Royal LePage Regina Realty, said Regina home prices are finally catching up with prices in Saskatoon and other major urban centres in Canada. 'We're just playing catch-up,' he said.'"
"'Even though some people are getting a little frightened by what's happening in the market, we're still behind other centres as far as housing prices are concerned,' Duggleby said."
"And with average prices $100,000 below the national average, there's plenty of room for price increases, he added. 'If you're waiting for prices to come down, don't hold your breath.'"