There's No Need To Rush
Some housing bubble news from Wall Street and Washington. "Comstock Homebuilding Companies, Inc. announced that in connection with their unqualified opinion regarding the Company's 2007 audit, the Company's independent registered public accounting firm, PricewaterhouseCoopers, indicated their belief that declining market conditions and the significant amount of the Company's debt which matures in 2008 creates substantial doubt that the Company would continue operating as a going concern."
"Comstock builds and markets single-family homes, townhouses, mid-rise condominiums, high-rise condominiums, mixed-use urban communities and active adult communities. The company currently markets its products under the Comstock Homes brand in the Washington, DC; Raleigh, North Carolina; and Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan areas."
The Associated Press. "Centex Homes, a unit of homebuilder Centex Corp. sold 27 properties to a joint venture for about $161 million as it looks to minimize its land supply. The book value of the properties sold was approximately $528 million."
From MarketWatch. "The agreement encompasses a group of 27 projects and about 8,500 residential lots in 11 states, with most of the properties located in California and Nevada."
From Realty Check. "The book value, according to Centex, was $528 million at the time of sale, but analysts say that was already after significant writedowns. They say the land was worth $900 million originally."
"Pali Research analyst Stephen East notes, 'Given the well-known weakness in the markets, we are surprised that CTX had not been more realistic in its mark down of land in its impairment process the prior quarter. Did they really think three months ago this land was worth more than 3X what it was sold for?'"
"Construction spending fell again in February as home building tumbled for a record 24th straight month...the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Residential activity has fallen every month since March 2006, a record period of declines."
"Analysts believe that housing will keep falling until a record glut of unsold homes is reduced. That effort is being hindered by the fact that mortgage defaults have soared to record levels, reflecting the abuses that occurred in lending activity at the height of the housing boom."
From The Age. "Switzerland's biggest bank UBS unveiled massive new writedowns Tuesday and turned to its shareholders to prop up its capital base, as it became the bank worst-hit by the US subprime mortgage crisis."
"The latest writedown -- 19 billion US dollars (12 billion euros) -- was the biggest single subprime hit so far worldwide and came on top of 18.4 billion US dollars the bank had written down in 2007."
"Overal writedowns at UBS, now totalling 37.4 billion US dollars, are far greater than those of American banks Citigroup (21.1 billion US dollars in 2007) and Merrill Lynch, which has booked 19.4 billion US dollars in writedowns."
"Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's largest bank, said Tuesday that it expects first-quarter write-downs of $4 billion due to market conditions triggered by the U.S. subprime collapse."
"'Conditions have become significantly more challenging during the last few weeks,' the bank said."
From Reuters. "U.S. issuance of asset-backed securities tumbled 83 percent in this year's first quarter as investors fled the risky subprime mortgage segment that fueled a global credit crisis in 2007."
"ABS issuance slumped to $54.7 billion in this year's first quarter compared with the $323.3 billion sold in the year-ago quarter, Thomson Financial said."
"'It's hard to issue new securities when the buyers are effectively on strike. Why should you buy a new issue when everything in the secondary market is on sale, much of it at distressed prices too?' said one portfolio manager."
"'I don't see anything in the residential space in the next six months,' said one investor. 'Most of the home loans that are being made are agency-backed.' 'None of the loans being made have come from non-agency land,' said one bond investor."
"Issuance fell 30 percent to $863.6 billion last year from $1.25 trillion in 2006. The overall decline was led by a 61.9 percent drop in home equity ABS..also known as residential subprime mortgages."
The Wall Street Journal. "As the falling real-estate and stock markets erode their savings, many aging Americans are delaying retirement, electing labor over leisure in uncertain times. With their homes worth less, fewer people feel confident enough to retire, even if they plan to continue living in them."
"The giant gray wave is still an inevitability. But it has run into a breakwall. Investment advisers and retirement planners at more than a dozen firms say they are seeing large numbers of older workers put off retirement as the housing and stock-market troubles have deepened."
"A three-decade veteran at IBM, Dick Boice had planned to sell his house, pack up and move to Arizona with his wife, Lauren, to take early retirement. But two months after the January date he set to exit the work world, Mr. Boice, who is 59 years old, is still on the job. He figures he'll stay put for another couple of years."
"The Boices had counted on proceeds from the house sale to boost their retirement income. After a year on the market, the roomy colonial in Blue Springs, Mo., didn't move, forcing the couple to cut the asking price by $40,000 to around $250,000."
"The house remains unsold. Meanwhile, Mr. Boice has watched the value of his 401(k) and individual retirement accounts fall by roughly 20% so far this year."
"'Everything is just heading south,' says Mr. Boice. 'You can't hardly make any kinds of plans because you don't know what you can count on.'"
The Boston Globe. "Note to young renters: It's a very good time to start thinking about buying your first house. Sure, the housing market is in the dumper, and houses are still expensive - up almost a third from their prices at the start of the decade, with some markets considerably higher than that."
"Right now, the housing glut means sellers are motivated and prices are falling. There's no need to rush, suggests Walt Molony of the National Association of Realtors. Nobody, not even the usually optimistic agents' group, is predicting increasing prices."
The Whittlesea Leader from Australia. "Banks are repossessing Whittlesea homes at a rate of one every four days as families struggle to pay their mortgages, Supreme Court records show. Welfare workers say growing numbers of families with mortgages are crying for help."
"North East Housing Service manager Cheryle Avent said the situation was likely to worsen unless there was drastic government action, with many Whittlesea residents 'mortgaged to the hilt.'"
"Steve Chesterton, of Chesterton & Co Real Estate, said first-home buyers had 'missed the boat' and some were postponing having children because of high prices. 'I feel painfully sorry for the first home buyer it would be extremely difficult with a young family.'"
The News Limited. "Australians should resign themselves to the fact that housing will never be affordable, a housing report from the Reserve Bank says. The report said 'it is no doubt the case that housing will never be as 'affordable' as we might like, and the cost of housing has been the subject of concern for at least several decades.'"
"The increase in housing prices had been 'a mixed blessing' for Australians, the RBA said. 'At one level, rising housing prices have made many people feel wealthier and have contributed to higher levels of consumer spending than might otherwise have occurred. But they have also resulted in concerns about housing affordability.'"
"The RBA said governments had an important role to play in making housing more affordable. 'In particular, policy initiatives to address any structural factors that encourage excessive demand for housing … will reduce 'average’ house prices over future cycles and could provide enduring affordability benefits to both home buyers and renters.'"
"'It is now widely accepted that policies that simply give people more money to spend on housing are likely to be capitalised into higher housing prices.'"
The Leader Post from Canada. "The Saskatchewan Housing Corporation has programs in place, like the Home First home ownership program, which makes it easier for families with low to moderate incomes to buy homes."
"The Home First program includes forgivable loans of up to $20,000 and deferred payments on low-interest mortgages of up to $30,000."
"A new housing development in Regina is opening the door to home ownership for some families. The city has committed to providing five-year tax exemptions to families moving into Maple Leaf Estates 'For our family, it's an opportunity we probably wouldn't have had (otherwise),' said Connie Grasdal, who recently moved into her new home."
"According to Grasdal, having the chance to build equity in her own home is a welcome change from her days of renting. 'Especially in today's market,' she observed. 'That's another reason it would have been impossible for us to find a decent place.'"
"Grasdal, who braved the morning chill to attend Monday's opening ceremony, explained why she brought her daughters to the event, which fell on a school day. '(We're here) to show how grateful we are for the project,' she said."
"While Saskatchewan is in the middle of a booming housing market, there are signs of a slowdown elsewhere in the country. In Alberta, which until recently had been home to the country's hottest housing market, house prices have been falling recently in some places."
"But don't expect the American experience to be repeated anywhere in Canada, according to economist Derek Holt. Holt said there are significant differences in the housing markets of the two countries and he doesn't think there's a Canadian housing bubble that's about to burst."
"'Frankly, (American) mortgage brokers just got sloppy,' he said, referring to practices like 'ninja loans,' where financing was made available to people with no income, no job and no assets. 'I don't think you had that kind of dynamic in (Canada),' Holt added."
"Further, Holt doesn't think houses in Saskatchewan are overvalued, given that virtually all sectors of the provincial economy are firing on all cylinders. '(They're providing) good, firm support to the housing market,' he said."
"Richard Corriveau of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, said Saskatchewan will 'absolutely' experience a slow-down in the housing market at some point in the future, like that which is happening in Alberta now. He said both provinces recently experienced price increases of about 50 per cent over two-year periods, which are not sustainable over long periods of time."
"'But we're still forecasting a solid 8.2-per-cent gain (in 2009),' he said."
"Corriveau also believes that Saskatchewan's higher house prices simply reflect the strength of the province's economy, which greatly reduces the risk of a housing-market collapse."
"'Saskatchewan is certainly enjoying its time in the sun and for very good reason,' he said. 'It's long overdue, in my opinion.'"
The Dallas Morning News. "Analysts with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas are keeping a wary eye on local housing. 'We have seen some slight edging down – some downward pressure – on prices,' said D'Ann Petersen, a business economist with the Dallas Fed. 'But it's nothing like we have seen on the national level or especially compared to places like Florida, California and Nevada.'"
"The number of North Texas houses winding up in foreclosure – more than 19,000 in 2007 – is troubling, she said. 'Foreclosures for me are the wild card,' Ms. Petersen said. 'So far, it hasn't had a large impact on our inventories or home values. And we are in the top three for job gains.'"
"The homebuilding industry is returning to older standards. 'In Dallas-Fort Worth, every year we have produced more houses than we sold, and we have done that for five or six years,' said Bruno Pasquinelli of Portrait Homes."
"'We have got to get rid of all these extra communities and get our pricing power back in this market,' he said. 'There is just too much of everything.'"
"'Sellers are much more realistic,' said Virginia Cook, founder of a Dallas real estate sales firm. 'They do listen to our opinions of home value now more than they did before. People, if they can't make money on their house, feel like they are cheated in some way.'"
From KHOU.com. "On a street named Celia in East Houston sits what years ago must of have been a cozy little house with a piano that now is way off tune and a big backyard that’s now a jungle."
"Usually, when you find a house that’s in this bad of shape, it’s been abandoned. But this horrible house does indeed have an owner and that owner has a name: Sam, Uncle Sam. According to county property records, the owner is the RTC: the Resolution Trust Corporation."
"The RTC was setup by the federal government in the late 1980s after the economy tanked and thousands of homes in Houston were lost to foreclosure. 'It wasn’t just homes,' Harris County Appraisal District spokesman Jim Robinson said. 'We had major commercial property, vacant land, shopping centers … [owned] by the federal government. They generally sold them off.'"
"But why would the federal government be so irresponsible? 11 News spoke to an official with the FDIC, which took over the RTC. He checked their records and said the government sold the house 13 years ago. But the records are so old, he said they don’t know who bought it."
"The official said it’s likely the home was bundled with other low-value properties and auctioned off to what the official called bottom-feeders: investors who bought up properties dirt cheap."
"If the properties turned out to be bad investments, the investors would never bother to have the land titles put in their names, they’d simply abandon the homes. They’d washed their hands of them, and so had the federal government."
"If a house ever became a problem, the problem wasn’t the investors’ or the federal government’s. In this case, it became the problem of everyone on Celia Drive."
"Jorge Hurtado lives across the street. He has to look at it every day and, 'worry about it because it’s dangerous for everybody,' he said."