What Inning Is It?
Readers suggested past housing bubble quotes and what they mean to the timing of the cycle for a topic. "How about a quick link to the retarded quotes we’ve heard over the years from useless turds like Lereah, (fun)Yun, Seiders, etc. There’s a treasure trove of classic $hit out there."
One proposed, "A permanent Wall of Shame to show these, as they grow each and every day in the MSM."
Another suggested a grading process, "Great idea. A nominating process would be in order."
A nomination, "The 'All contained…' quip gets my vote for 1st place. So far off the marker, ‘taint a bit funny. Buffoons, all!"
Another, "I like 'The United States vibrant housing market.' That gets my vote. It was in Time I think."
One remembers, "Did anyone ever hear what happened to those plans for 'retirement barges' that would float a bunch of retirees up and down the Mississippi River with no fixed address? That’s probably my favorite bubble story of all. It can’t have gone through."
One looks at the context, "What inning is it? My vote is the third, assuming the game started in summer 2005 as the market peaked."
Another, "Maybe the question is; Is this going to go extra innings??"
An analogy, "How about the game being called because the only bat (US$) broke, and the other team dosn’t want to play anymore…."
December 20, 2005. "As if to tweak the noses of housing-sector pessimists, the November U.S. housing starts report released on Dec. 20 revealed another stellar performance: a rebound of 5.3% on the month, to a 2.123 million annual pace, from a revised 2.017 million in October (2.014 million previously). Building permits rose 2.5%, to a solid 2.155 million pace, from a 2.103 million rate in October (revised from 2.071 million)."
"The report showed broad-based strength that defied another wet month and made clear that residential construction will enter the new year on a solid footing. As we at Action Economics have previously noted, all major seasonal adjusted data from the housing and real estate sectors remain strong through the fourth quarter -- and may actually be gaining steam."
"This is true despite a small scattering of negative anecdotal evidence and swings in the some of the weekly data that are notorious for both false signals and seasonal fourth-quarter weakness."
April 18, 2005. "On a recent Monday evening in suburban Philadelphia, two dozen sober-suited executives huddle around a giant conference table for the weekly 'ops' meeting inside the nerve center of Toll Brothers, the hottest homebuilder in America."
"Suddenly co-founder and CEO Bob Toll bursts in and starts firing questions at his brain trust: Are local managers doing enough to deter the buy-and-flip crowd? Are rival builders throwing up houses without signing up buyers first? His lieutenants reassure the boss that their customers are bona fide primary- and vacation-home owners who just keep coming, and that speculative building isn't widespread."
"Finally, with his paranoia assuaged, Toll allows himself to do what he loves best: ratchet up prices."
"On this night he's so confident that people will keep buying that he lifts the prices on projects in Florida, Las Vegas, and other markets by 1%. That amounts to about $10,000 for each house over the list price from the previous week."
"It's nothing new; he's been hiking prices Monday after Monday. At Toll's Frenchman's Reserve community in Palm Beach Gardens, the price of a Florida rococo confection called the Signature has jumped $200,000 just since January, to $1.4 million. That's an average increase of $15,000 a week."
"'People just keep buying anyway,' Toll marvels. 'I've never seen anything like this in almost 40 years in the business.'"
June 20, 2005. "Within a month of putting her two-bedroom house in San Francisco on the market recently, homeowner Linda Gao had five offers, each one above her asking price of $699,000. So before accepting the most-attractive bid, she threw in an extra condition: If you want to buy my house, you have to feed the squirrels."
"Two weeks later, she and the buyer hammered out a contract that included feeding the backyard wildlife, which Ms. Gao has done three times a week for the past two years. 'I don't think it matters if it's a buyer's market or a seller's market,' Ms. Gao says. 'Anyone with a good heart would feed them.'"
May 20, 2005. "Some regions of the U.S. housing market show signs of unsustainable price speculation and 'froth' from rapid sales, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said. The surge may ease as homes become less affordable, he said."
"'It's pretty clear that it's an unsustainable underlying pattern,' Greenspan said in response to a question after a speech on energy to the Economic Club of New York. 'People are reaching to be able to pay the prices to be able to move into a home.'"
"'There are a few things that suggest, at a minimum, there's a little froth in this market,' Greenspan said. While 'we don't perceive that there is a national bubble,' he said that 'it's hard not to see that there are a lot of local bubbles.'"
"Greenspan's comments represent some of his strongest language to date on rising home prices. Fed Governor Donald Kohn said in an April 22 speech that rising home prices now 'raise questions'"
"There's a risk that consumer consumption may decline if the housing market slows, Greenspan said. 'If it occurs, and eventually it will, it will reduce the fairly large and still accelerating degree of extraction of equity from existing homes,' he said. 'This has been a major force in financing consumption expenditures.'"
"While Greenspan didn't explain why he expected the surge in home prices to 'simmer down,' he noted that buyers have to resort to unusual financing techniques, such as interest-only loans, to afford homes now."
"There is 'considerable unlikelihood of a major decline' in prices because that's 'very rare' in the U.S., Greenspan said."
"'Even if there are declines in prices, the significant run- up to date has so increased equity in homes that only those who have purchased just before prices literally go down are going to have problems,' he said."
"Earlier this week the Fed and other banking regulators warned banks that they should tighten controls on home equity loans that they said are too often offered with no documentation of a borrowers assets."
"'That kind of moral suasion approach should probably have been done two years ago,' said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. 'It is very hard for them to jack up interest rates to deal with this, but they can get tougher on their guidance.'"
"Three metropolitan regions in Florida led the nation in price growth, according to the group. The strongest price increase was in Bradenton, where the first-quarter median price of $275,000 was 46 percent higher than the same period in 2004."
"In the San Francisco Bay area, the nation's most expensive region for homes, the median price was $689,200. 'The housing market doesn't have a regional problem; it has localized hot spots,' said Robert Brusca, president of Fact & Opinion Economics in New York."
"The Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Homebuilding Index, which rose 64 percent in the past 12 months, fell 0.7 percent today. Shares of builders Meritage Homes Corp., Toll Brothers Inc. and KB Home have all more than doubled in a year."