Changing The Way We Live?
Readers suggested a topic on energy costs and house prices. "Can we discuss the impact of rising energy costs and general inflation expectations on the decision to rent or buy a home? What are the risks of waiting to buy? My heating costs have almost doubled since I went from owner to renter 2.5 years ago. I believe that even though home prices may drift downward, if I owned the home I'd have control over investing to make it very energy efficient and potentially save more in a few years than what is at risk in the house price."
"I am in a cold climate, and in a non-bubbly area (though lots of foreclosures)."
A reply, "I think a more important variation on this question should be, when will the energy costs associated with a living space (purchase or rental) start being truly reflected in the price?"
"Perhaps the reason why we don't see much discussion of this sort is that IMO the energy performance truly sucks in about 98% of the existing homes. In other words, there's no meaningful differentiaion to be had."
One added, "I've wondered this too. All the newer homes, condos, and townhomes I've looked at in the past few years, one of the first things I ask the realtor/salesperson what the energy efficiency of the homes are. In many new home developments most of the sales people don't even know the answer to that question. Coincidentally, I've found many brand new homes by the big name builders often have insulation equal to that of a poorly constructed apartment building."
"And if I look at any homes older than say, 15-20 years, I estimate in my mind how much it would cost to rip out and reinsulate the house, among other things to make it energy efficient, and add that onto the purchase price."
One asks about gasoline, "When and where in America do you predict the first violent protests over rising fuel costs like have been seen in other parts of the globe? What will be the spark to ignite them?"
One from California. "False entitlement fuses have been laid all over Los Angeles, the city of the automobile... Add in a public transport system that might be the worst of any 1st world city of size, and there's your spark."
A reply, "Public transportation in Los Angeles has improved tremendously in the past 20 years. There's now an extensive commuter rail system that extends into Orange County, the Inland Empire, the Antelope Valley, and Ventura County. Los Angeles also has a subway and light rail system. The options are far better than in the 70's, though there's still much room for improvement."
"One could look at Houston, for example, as a large city that has far fewer transit options. If there is civil unrest due to gas, I'd guess it's more likely due to supply disruptions than prices and more likely somewhere east of the Rockies. It should be noted that some of the greatest outrage from higher prices following Katrina was in these areas, though those higher prices were no higher than those on the West Coast."
Another posted, "I live in LA and I am hoping for gas to go to $6. I realize this will affect the prices of virtually everything I buy but LA needs a good cleansing. $6 / gallon will be a good start. Traffic is already easing up. The last time we had a good cleansing here was the Northridge earthquake in 94. I think the gas and real estate collapse will cause much less 'pain.'"
The Orlando Sentinel. "According to an Orlando Sentinel analysis of sales data from the Orlando Regional Realtor Association, from March to April, Orlando's urban-market sales grew 37 percent compared with 9.9 percent for the market overall, and 15 percent from April to May compared with 3.7 percent overall. Earlier in the year, sales within the two-mile radius of downtown Orlando were lagging the sales growth trends overall."
"'People have noticed the prices have been reduced,' said Darryl Hunt, who recently brokered the $850,000 sale of a penthouse in the Solaire condominium downtown. He said a few years ago it would have fetched more than $1 million."
"Steven Moreira, broker in Longwood, is trying to sell several of his rental homes in Sumter, Marion and Volusia counties, in part because the commuting costs to maintain the properties have soared. His gasoline bill for one maintenance truck has gone up from $500 to $900 a month, Moreira said."
"'We need ways to get to work and not have to start the car until the weekend -- the way a lot of people do in Europe,' said Moreira, president of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. 'People are just not going to commute 50 miles with $10 [a gallon] gas.'"
The Journal Gazette. "Builders last month obtained nearly 49 percent fewer home construction permits than they did in May 2007, according to the Home Builders Association of Fort Wayne. Construction hasn't been at that level since 1983, when high interest rates stifled building."
"Gas prices above $4 a gallon are causing consumers who are considering whether to buy an existing home or build a new one to avoid a move, said Ric Zehr, VP of subdivision developer North Eastern Group. 'Gas prices are a huge, huge factor,' he said. 'It's changing the way we live.'"
The Mail Tribune. "Property foreclosures jumped dramatically in Jackson County this spring. Default figures compiled by LandAmerica Lawyers Title soared 142 percent year-over-year in April and 83 percent year-over-year in May."
"'It's a national question and a serious one,' said Bob Forrest of Bob Forrest Loan & Investments in Medford. 'So many people want to go in and flip the property. They get it and can't flip it and they're living in it and you can only live in one of them. I know of two cases like that.'"
"While risky behavior on the part of lenders and borrowers led to the foreclosure cycle, lost jobs and rising fuel costs have exacerbated the problem. 'So many things are going wrong with the economy,' said Forrest. 'Gas prices and the phenomenal cost of everything has made it so people are being robbed of their ability to spend and make payments.'"
The Sacramento Bee. "With a force not seen in decades, the high cost of energy is hammering the economy in Sacramento and beyond. It's keeping shoppers away from Arden Fair mall and thinning out the crowds at Sacramento International Airport. It's hurting restaurants and crippling SUV sales."
"Thanks to $4.50-a-gallon gas and $130-a-barrel oil, energy is consuming nearly 7 cents of every dollar of economic output in the United States. That's about twice as big a bite as last year and nearly as much as in the late 1970s, when oil shortages sent the country into a nasty recession, said James Hamilton, an energy economist at the University of California, San Diego."
"Chronic $130-plus oil could bring changes in land-use patterns. It could hurt those far-flung commuter suburbs, like those in Yuba and Sutter counties, which were conceived when gas was cheaper but are now suffering some of the worst of the foreclosure crisis."
"'Developers will certainly think twice about looking at land in far-out locations,' said Dean Wehrli, VP with Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors in Elk Grove."
From Vail Daily. "In the past, there would be almost 30 potential buyers in line for a Miller Ranch home, and first person in line would get the house, said Kim Williams, Eagle County deed-restriction manager."
"This year, a tighter, more 'conservative' lending market has resulted in less buyers who are able to finance one of the 282 deed-restricted homes in Edwards, she said. 'Now we have to go several people down the list,' she said."
"Foreclosures have affected the market all over the country, and now it is hitting the Vail valley and its deed-restricted, affordable homes. Lenders are now looking more carefully at credit histories and debt-to-income ratios."
"Those tighter restrictions hit first-time homeowners the hardest, said Cris Nolan, lending officer with WR Starkey Mortgage in Edwards."
"'Previously, nearly everyone could get a loan, and that's not the case now,' she said. 'Usually everyone has to come with $3,000 down, and that's the problem with locals. They don't have that cash.'"