The First Inning Of The Million-Dollar Market Plunge
The Denver Post reports from Colorado. "Andy Klein is a bargain shopper - on a huge scale. Since late last year, Klein has bought a few hundred lots for about half of what they sold for just two years ago. Klein is buying properties from banks and builders from as far north as Longmont and Brighton to as far south as Colorado Springs. 'Homebuilders don't want to hold inventory of platted lots or finished lots unless they believe they can be built on in the next three years,' Klein said. 'That leaves a lot of disposable inventory.'"
"The 10 largest public homebuilders reduced the number of lots in their inventory by 39 percent last year, according to the report by the real-estate investment arm of Deutsche Bank's asset-management division. The majority of the decreases came from write-offs of land options."
"'There was a lot of speculative hoarding by homebuilders in the face of rapidly rising prices,' said Robert Denk, an economist at the National Association of Homebuilders. 'Now that it's hit its height, it makes sense that a lot is going to get dumped at lower prices.'"
The Daily Planet from Colorado. "Wrap your head around this one. Right now in Telluride, real-estate sales volume is at its lowest point since 2003, and the number of properties changing hands has dipped to levels not seen since 1988. And yet, the average price of real estate has never been higher."
"'As much as we like to pretend that we're recession-proof and believe that we're recession-proof the national economy has an effect on us,' said Lars Carlson, a broker with Peaks Real Estate."
"And yet, home prices aren't really budging."
"'Properties in this market do not lose value,' said Judi Kiernan, owner of Telluride Consulting. 'There's a limited number we can't make anymore. We're not expanding like a Steamboat or Vail. I don't want to sound like a Pollyanna, but the idea is, Is value falling? No, value is not falling. Expectations are being adjusted.'"
"Brokers say that buyers seem to be circling the airport right now, unsure about whether they should buy homes or wait another few months and hope they'll be able to bargain sellers to a better deal."
"'Everyone's trying to time the bottom of the market. They don't want to be the guy who bought something and paid too much,' said Matt Hintermeister, a broker with Peaks Real Estate."
The Sun News from New Mexico. "Juan Arrendondo would like to own a house some day. The Las Cruces teacher, though, is engaged to be married and is not too sure a mortgage fits his life right now. 'I do want to buy, but later,' the 33-year-old New Mexico State grad said."
"Arrendondo said he has researched a possible purchase but he and his fiancee have decided for now to rent a house near Roadrunner Parkway. The tightening of the credit market over the past year has caused him to delay taking on a mortgage, Arrendondo said. 'Renting makes the most sense right now,' he said."
"Many are people who can't afford to buy right now, thus houses also are taking longer to sell, said Cheryl Butler of Active Rentals. 'I live on Topley (Avenue) and there are seven houses for sale within a two block radius,' she said."
"Jennifer Zappone of Landmark Real Estate said some builders have decided to put their homes up for rent while they try to sell them. 'They're trying to make the mortgage payment,' she said."
The Arizona Republic. "For decades, everyone assumed Arizona's population-projection figures were reliable. Turns out they are not. Metropolitan Phoenix's housing boom of 2003-06 skewed the state's population numbers, leading to projections that planners, economists and government officials agree are inflated."
"'Population growth is the beginning of the food chain of Arizona's economy,' said Ioanna Morfessis, founding chief executive of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council. 'But if the numbers are wrong, and I think the state's population numbers are inflated, it's going to be a house of cards for the economy.'"
"During the height of the boom in 2005, state and census estimates showed a record 196,000 people moved to the Phoenix area. But those projections, based largely on housing permits and occupancy numbers, didn't accurately reflect how many people were moving to the Valley."
"The large number of investor-owned properties inflated figures. And the number of building permits exceeded the number of houses actually sold. For example, a record 62,000 new homes went up in metro Phoenix during 2005 but only about 40,000 of those were bought by people who moved into them."
"Jay Butler, director of realty studies at Arizona State University Polytechnic, says part of the current formula for projecting Arizona's population assumes 1 to 2 percent of the state's homes are vacant."
"'Now we know at least 10 percent of the new homes built during the boom were vacant, and foreclosures are leaving more homes empty,' Butler said. 'No one really knows how many homes are empty.'"
The Yuma Sun from Arizona. "The American Dream has become a nightmare for many Americans - Yumans among them - who got caught up in the real estate boom of a few years ago. 'There's more lower-end homes selling now,' said Joe Wehrle, Yuma County Assessor. 'We have a different picture. In the past, we had several upper-range homes sold. The top end just is not selling well.'"
"Michael Hall, broker for ERA Matt Fischer Realtor, said he thinks a better reflection of the market is a 20-25 percent drop in the average sales prices in the Yuma area in the past couple of years. 'Prices have dropped in all the neighborhoods,' he said."
"With the inventory of homes on the resale market or being built, potential buyers have a lot of choices. Meanwhile, interest rates remain low and FHA loan levels have been raised to $271,050 through 2008."
"'That's opened the door for anything under that price through the end of the year,' said Hall. 'There's been so much negative media. But that's national. Yuma is in a bubble.'"
The Daily News on Arizona. "Life hasn't turned out to be a dream in the desert for the retired Queens man who moved to Arizona by cab along with his wife and two cats. Just months after Bob and Betty Matas last year made their cross-country trek and international headlines, Betty, 75, passed away."
'Now, Bob Matas, 74, says he can't afford the payments on the house in upscale Sedona that the couple bought - and he's moving into a trailer park."
"The eccentric couple opted for a cab to Arizona in April 2007 in part because they wanted to start a promising chapter of their lives with an adventure. They also didn't want to put their beloved cats through the ordeal of traveling in the cargo hold of a plane."
"Matas said he recently consulted a lawyer because he was unable to get a loan. The value of his Sedona house at the foot of a mountain range had plummeted in the national housing market crisis."
"His mortgage, credit card and other debts were substantial - his savings, modest. The lawyer urged Bob Matas to 'walk away' from his new home and let it slide into foreclosure, Matas said. He bought a $40,000 mobile home in a trailer park, also in Sedona, Matas said."
"'People are doing it all over the country,' he said. 'I never thought I would have to do it. It hurts, but what am I going to do.'"
"Matas doesn't have an exact moving date. California transplant and friend Robin Briggman, who's been helping Matas, said the move was unavoidable. 'We looked at it from every angle,' she said. 'It's just the way it is. It's the bottom line. He's off to the next chapter.'"
The Las Vegas Business Press from Nevada. "Vegas Grand, the local condominium complex in foreclosure, will finish construction next month. The 20-acre, 212-unit development is for sale. There is no official asking price."
"'We have been seeing strong interest in the property,' said Geoffrey West, a first vice president with CB Richard Ellis. 'This is the first fully completed vacant mid-rise condo project that has come to market.'"
"It cost $72 million to complete. There is also an adjacent undeveloped 16 acre tract, with entitlements for 782 more units. Its estimated value is $44 million, or $2.75 million per acre, which is 40 percent less than last year."
"Lehman Bros. gained control of the project in October for $55 million, or $2.75 million-per-acre, after Orlando, Fla.-based developer Del American defaulted on its loan. The outstanding balance was reportedly between $90 million to $100 million."
"Del American acquired the Vegas Grand property in May 2003 for about $4 million, or $200,000-per-acre. In 2004, the developer received $240 million in project financing from Lehman Bros. and Munich, Germany-based Hypo Real Estate Capital Corp."
"At one time, about 90 percent of the project's first phase...(which) started in the $200,000s, had been reserved. But Del American later canceled those reservations and raised prices by up to 50 percent due to market condition changes. It prompted a class-action lawsuit by buyers for breach of contract, fraud and deceptive trade practices."
"Although the Vegas Grand was originally envisioned as luxury condos, the property is now expected to be used as apartments, time shares, student housing or hotel rooms. The project has been cleared of all encumbrances. The property is expected to be under contract by month's end, with the deal closing by the third quarter.
"'Although there is no official asking price, about $107 million has been spent on the development thus far,' West said. 'Unfortunately, we probably won't recover every dollar from it due to the market conditions.'"
The Review Journal from Nevada. "Luxury homes in Las Vegas have held their value in a declining housing market in which one in every 44 homes has entered some stage of foreclosure, a local appraiser said. 'I'm not so sure at $1 million, but at $1.5 million and up, it's stronger today than it has ever been in this city,' Scott Dugan of R. Scott Dugan Appraisal said."
"The luxury segment from $1 million to $3 million is not looking quite as good, said Ken Lowman, broker and owner of Luxury Homes of Las Vegas. Sales dropped to 53 in the first quarter from 123 a year ago."
"Homes that were valued at or near $1 million, including tract homes in upscale neighborhoods, have dropped back below the seven-figure threshold, resulting in fewer luxury sales, Lowman said."
"Steve Hawks of ReMax Platinum said the luxury housing market is about to be butchered in the 'million-dollar massacre.'"
"He said so-called 'jumbo loans' have all but dried up because of the massive amount of mortgage fraud that found Las Vegas at the center of an FBI investigation. Jumbo rates have increased by a point or two and the borrower has to put down 15 percent to 25 percent, Hawks said."
"Homes with artificially inflated values are now going into foreclosure or short sale, Hawks said."
"'We're in the first inning of the million-dollar market plunge,' he said. 'We see some examples already. Several guard-gated communities that have a high amount of vacant homes, short sales and bank-owned (homes) are starting to pop up slowly.'"
"The hardest-hit sector will be semicustom homes in guard-gated communities, Hawks said. Homes in those areas that were going for $1 million to $1.5 million are now listed for $600,000 to $800,000 and will probably drop to $500,000 or $600,000, he said."
"Though not as prevalent as they are in the lower markets, 'mortgage walkers' are letting banks take back high-end homes, Hawks said. His partner has a Seven Hills foreclosure home in escrow for $750,000 that was once valued at $1.4 million."
Las Vegas Now from Nevada. "Our community's foreclosure crisis has many parts, some of which are only coming to light with the passage of time. With banks now owning so many homes, local realtors say they aren't moving fast enough when it comes to selling property banks admit they don't want to own in the first place."
"When Karen Reffner got divorced and lost her job due to an illness, she was convinced she was going to lose the home she had lived in for the past nine years."
"'I spent all these years putting my heart into it, and it's gone. Sorry. I had a lot of good times, but when you spend every day and night working and doing all of this, it is very hard,' she said."
"So Reffner moved into a rental home and started working with a realtor to sell her home in what is called a short sale. She was hoping to convince her lender, Bank of America, to accept less than the loan amount in exchange for a quick sale."
"The problem is Reffner says it was next to impossible to get any kind of answer from the bank, 'At that point, we did not have any contact person. It goes in a pile. When the things come in, it just goes in a pile. They did not know how to work with it and they've even told me this is all new to us.'"
"Bill Uffelman represents the banking industry in Nevada, 'We're certainly not in the property management business.'"
"He says banks themselves are in unfamiliar territory and are actively working to adapt to today's market conditions. 'They are shifting staff, shifting resources. It becomes a re-training, re-direction. You've got staff so can we do something to make it better? And this is literally a developing process,' he said."
"Gail Selter, Karen Reffner's realtor, says she's seeing signs that some of the bigger lenders are slowly adapting, but the frustrations are ongoing."
"'They will say, 'We'll call you back in two business days,' and they don't. And then we have to get back on the phone with them. So it's an aggravating part of our business to have to be able to maintain a log and keep on top of them,' she said."
"Selter says delays have caused two potential buyers to walk from this short sale and for every day that passes without a sale, Reffner says her credit, and her spirit, is taking a beating."
"'It is to the point where I am so tired of dealing with it, I just want to go on with my life,' she said."