Value No Longer Really Matters
Some housing bubble News from Wall Street and Washington. Bloomberg, "Taylor Wimpey Plc, reeling from the worst U.K. housing slump in 30 years, will write down 660 million pounds ($1.3 billion) of real estate. Taylor Wimpey will write down U.K. land and projects by 550 million pounds. That would be an industry record, according to Merrill Lynch data. Further charges of 70 million pounds and 40 million pounds will be made for sites in the U.S. and Spain."
"British mortgage lenders have refused to pass on three interest rate cuts since December and have withdrawn loans for those with smaller deposits. This has starved first-time buyers and buy-to-let investors of credit and pushed down house prices."
"The declines in April were the most widespread since at least records began in 1978, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors."
"U.K. mortgage approvals fell to the lowest in at least nine years in May. Banks granted 42,000 loans for house purchase, compared with 58,000 in April, the Bank of England said in London today. The result was the lowest since the bank's series began in 1999."
"'For approvals to fall by so much in one month having already collapsed over the last year underlines the ferocity of the housing market slowdown,' said Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in London. The report 'suggests the pace of house price declines will continue or even accelerate and the risks to economic growth have also risen.'"
"Trevor Williams, an economist at Lloyds TSB Bank Plc, said today's 'huge drop' in mortgage approvals shows first-time buyers have 'been abandoning the market almost completely.' Home loans in May were about one third of last year's peak."
"'There's no end in sight,' said David Tinsley, an economist at National Australia Bank in London, who formerly worked for the U.K. central bank. 'With inflation remaining elevated, we're unlikely to see rate cuts. But even if we did, it probably wouldn't help much.'"
The JCN Network. "The Development Bank of Japan said Monday its unconsolidated net profit in fiscal 2007 fell from the previous year to 53.9 billion yen due mainly to losses on U.S. subprime-related and other securities."
"Losses on securitized products, including those related to U.S. subprime mortgages, totaled 33.8 billion yen on a consolidated basis in the year to March 2008, the government-affiliated bank said."
"Newly delinquent homeowners outnumbered those who caught up on overdue payments for a 26th straight month in May, according to a trade group that tracks loans to people who put down less than 20 percent."
"In the worst housing slump since the Great Depression, 67,967 homeowners with mortgage insurance fell at least 60 days behind on their loans, compared with 40,687 who got back on track, the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America reported today."
"'There's no doubt that 2008 is going to continue to be a challenging year,' said Michael Fraizer, CEO of Genworth Financial Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. mortgage insurer."
"Insurers are tightening standards on mortgages they cover to stem further losses. The new requirements contributed to a 48 percent drop in the number of policies issued to new homeowners in May, compared with the same month a year earlier, according to the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America."
"Subprime and Alt-A mortgage bonds, trading at or near record lows, may continue their declines as banks limit purchases of some securities and are forced to sell off what they hold, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts said."
"Prices for typical fixed-rate Alt-A bonds rated AAA have tumbled to near an all-time low of less than $84 per $100 of principal from about $87 in April, JPMorgan said. Subprime debt is also down, as AAA bonds lost 5.1 percent in three months, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. index data show."
"A year after the subprime meltdown roiled credit investors, the market for new non-agency mortgage bonds is no closer to reopening. Banks have a 'long way to go,' after raising about $400 billion of capital, JPMorgan analyst Chris Flanagan said in a report."
"Banks will need about $115 billion simply to offset downgrades among the $1 trillion of AAA subprime and Alt-A bonds, he wrote, as lower quarter-end prices suggest new writedowns."
"'In a world of insufficient capital, value no longer really matters,' Flanagan wrote in the New York-based bank's June 27 weekly report on securitized debt."
The Atlanta Journal Constitution. "Georgia's banks have built up the nation's heaviest concentration of loans to now-struggling home builders and real estate developers. Nearly $1 out of every $5 on Georgia banks' loan books bankrolled homebuilders and real estate developers - by far the highest proportion in the state in at least 30 years, according to federal regulators' data."
"Nine Georgia banks were among the top 25 banks on a list research firm SNL Financial published earlier this month based on their high 'Texas ratios' - a measure used during the savings-and-loan meltdown in the 1980s to gauge increased risk of insolvency."
"Industry insiders say there are now almost four dozen banks on Georgia's watch list for problem banks. Robert Braswell, Georgia's banking commissioner, said the figure is in the 'right ballpark,' and has been rising."
"By 2007, construction and real estate development loans on Georgia banks' books had mushroomed to more than $41 billion, from $7.4 billion in 2000, according to figures from the FDIC. Such loans equal 19.5 percent of Georgia banks' total loans."
"But what got things rolling first was a flood of money into the Atlanta market that helped launch a wave of new banks. According to the Georgia Bankers Association, 109 start-up community banks have been launched in the state since 2000."
"Meanwhile, subprime loans made it easy for investors to snap up homes that they hoped to flip later for a quick profit."
" 'The huge proportion of sales in 2005 and 2006 were financed by subprime mortgages,' said Walt Moeling, a lawyer with Atlanta firm Powell Goldstein who has been representing local banking firms since 1968. Developers were 'selling every house they [could] build,' he said, which encouraged them to borrow more money to expand."
"'In Atlanta, this is the worst market we've had, ever,' said Moeling. 'Everything went splat.'"
"Now many of the developers who got those loans are out of business. They've saddled the banks with assets worth much less than the loans, including unsold new houses and subdivisions that are growing weeds rather than bungalows."
"Some insiders call the unfinished subdivisions 'PVC farms' for the forests of plastic pipes installed for houses that were never built."
"Braswell, the state banking commissioner, says the situation sometimes keeps him awake. 'This one occurred almost overnight,' Braswell said of the abrupt deterioration of developers' ability to repay their loans."
"'You can warn someone about the pitfalls of over-reliance on one market segment, but some of the guidance may have fallen on deaf ears due to the amount of profits that were being made,' Braswell said. Still, he said, in hindsight 'state regulators could have sounded the bell more loudly.'"
The Chicago Tribune. "Rev. Jesse Jackson kicked off the five-day annual Rainbow/PUSH Coalition conference by urging people to vote and to remember the struggles of generations who fought for basic rights."
"Saturday's discussion focused on home foreclosures, with Illinois Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan and U.S. Rep. Barney Frank describing their efforts to stem damage from the crisis."
"Madigan talked about her office's lawsuit against Countrywide, the nation's largest mortgage lender. In May, there were 9,670 foreclosure filings in Illinois, up more than 40 percent from May 2007, Madigan said."
"'There was clearly a pattern of unfairness, a pattern of deception,' Madigan said, describing results of a nine-month investigation. 'What we are seeking to do is make them accountable.'"
"Madigan said that she will seek a 90-day stay on foreclosures, giving her office time to review individual home loans and try to modify them so that owners can afford to keep their houses."
"Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, blamed the industry's problems on a lack of federal regulation."
"'These are hardworking, decent people who made a mistake,' he said. 'People who listened to deceptive advice.'"
The Herald Tribune. "Like countless other investors in Southwest Florida, U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Longboat Key, played the real estate game during the boom and is now suffering the consequences."
"At least two of his investments, a house overlooking Sarasota Bay and a condominium in the Ritz-Carlton Tower Residences, have turned into significant money losers. All told, Buchanan and his partners spent nearly $33 million on six Southwest Florida properties from 2004 to 2006."
"In Charlotte County, Buchanan got involved in The Preserve at Boca Creek project at a time when most developers had stopped investing in raw land."
"It was the summer of 2006, and Buchanan and his three partners -- Asher Bernstein, John Murray and Michael Gould -- believed there was still room for a high-end project that would include as many as 83 single-family homes and 263 condo units. The partners bought the 153-acre tract from tobacco billionaire Brad Kelley for $15 million."
"In 2004, Buchanan bought a 5,200-square-foot bayfront home near the Stickney Point Road bridge through his 6430 Hollywood Blvd. LLC for $3.2 million. That four-bedroom house is now on the market with a list price of $2.595 million, or about $600,000 less than Buchanan paid."
"In January 2005, Buchanan bought a condo at the Ritz Tower Residences for $1.9 million and sold it in November 2006 for $1.6 million, taking a $300,000 loss in the process."
"'I guess it doesn't help to be a congressman,' said Perry Corneau, a Sarasota condo specialist. 'Anyone who bought in 2005 or 2006 are going to find prices are lower today.'"