Throwing Good Money After Bad?
Readers suggested a topic on the possible future of the housing market. "Instead of just timing the bottom, let's map it out. Will there be more or less regulation? Heads rolling at the Fed? RTC 2.0? Unrest in the suburbs threatening the gentrified city core and art district riverside lofts nearby?"
One posted. "Will we see an acceleration in the decline of prices once the FDIC begins taking over multiple financial institutions? My understanding is that in the past they generally have moved to dump properties relatively aggressively."
Another asked, "How did we go from, 'It's not a bubble; it's froth. Heck, use an ARM; you'll save.' to 'Hurry, Mr. 6Pack. You're doomed unless we get a signed blank check that we don't need and promise not to use?'"
A reply, "I don't know who the government is going to take the money from in order to pay for these bail-outs. Keeping the interest rates low is creating inflation and taxing everyone right now."
"So far I have lost about 70K on my house (I put 50% down on my house when I bought it ,and I have a fixed rate). My earnings have gone down about 25k a year because of the low interest rates, my buying power is getting creamed with this inflation."
"This baby is hitting everybody. Still, there are people that are getting hit harder than me, especially people who are losing jobs or can't find jobs. Job creation, by any means, is the best way to stimulate the economy in my view. I wish this whole damn world would get off real estate as the only industry that Americans can generate income from."
One asks, "I'd like to see more discussion on how state and local governments are likely to react to the new twists and turns of the bubble collapse. For example: Farifax, VA wants to buy 10 foreclosed houses to turn into affordable housing."
"What happens when they begin to see the funds they have invested start to drain away (let alone decreased transfer tax revenue)? Do they change direction on the purchases? Raise taxes! (you can be burned at the stake in several parts of VA for suggesting such a thing)."
The Toledo Blade. "Yesterday morning, Toledo and Lucas County officials, neighborhood groups, housing advocates, and others gathered to discuss what to do about the vacant homes that blight a host of neighborhoods. A study released earlier this year estimated that vacant and abandoned properties cost Toledo taxpayers at least $3.8 million in 2006."
"Cuyahoga County Treasurer Jim Rokakis said the situation in Cuyahoga County is dire and that the number of foreclosures jumped from 3,000 annually before the current crisis to more than 15,000 last year."
"'What do you think a property is worth if there are 20 homes on your street and 10 are vacant and three have been torched in the last year?' he asked, referring to the plight of one elderly homeowner in the Glenville neighborhood on Cleveland's east side. 'The reality is there is no value on that house.'"
"'We need a responsible body that can take possession of the properties and decide what to do with them based on what's best for the community,' he said. While he said a land bank would not be a cure-all, 'if we sit back and do nothing, I can only tell you it's going to get worse.'"
The Columbus Dispatch. "Ralph Stover has good credit and a steady job. But he took out a risky interest-only first mortgage and a second mortgage to buy a new 1,900-square-foot condominium in 2003 with no money down."
"He paid $170,900 for his three-bedroom, three-bathroom unit near Polaris, but an appraisal he had done in April because he was thinking about refinancing showed it was worth $160,000. Other units are selling for $150,000 or less, he said."
"His first mortgage is going to reset to a higher interest rate early next year. That means his monthly payment will more than double and then float every six months based on national interest rates, he said. Locking into a fixed-rate mortgage would be even more expensive, costing him close to half his monthly income plus a hefty down payment and thousands of dollars in up-front points and fees."
"He's beginning to think foreclosure might be the best of his bad options."
"'My fear is that we haven't seen the bottom of this, and if we don't see the bottom of this for another two years, my home might be worth 120 (thousand dollars),' said Stover. 'Then you start wondering: Am I throwing good money after bad?'"
"Because the purpose of a down payment is to ensure that the lender can recover the full amount of the loan in the case of default, the potential fallout from people in Stover's situation could be 'a sucker punch' to the economy, lenders and neighborhoods, said James Newton, chief economic adviser for Commerce National Bank in Columbus."
"Walking away 'is becoming more and more common,' Newton said. 'If this were done on a large-scale basis, this would extend the credit crisis into the far future," by dumping more vacant homes into a bloated market and onto banks' balance sheets. It would be devastating. It would just take the credit crisis and amplify it that much more.'"
"A common thread among these homeowners is that they purchased exotic mortgages rather than the traditional, fixed-rate products."
"'It's the people with interest-only and (adjustable-rate mortgages) who are really having a problem,' said Kevin O'Brien, a Columbus lawyer who represents banks in foreclosure cases. 'Some of these people just get pushed off the financial cliff, and then you're done.'"
"Until last year, the price decline affecting Stover hadn't happened in recent history. Before 2007, the median condo sale price declined only twice in Franklin County in the past 20 years."
"But in 2007, the median condo price plunged 8.5 percent. Single-family house prices peaked in 2005. By the end of last year, the median house price had dropped about 5 percentage points."
"'If things continue to go the way they seem to be going, it's going to be unaffordable,' Stover said. 'I'm just not going to make it.'"
The Merced Sun Star. "The Merced City Council tackles more fallout from a housing boom gone bust tonight. The council will vote on whether bonding companies will perform $8 million of infrastructure work that developers failed to complete in two stalled subdivisions."
"At both Bellevue Ranch East and Highland Park, developers say they haven't sold enough houses to pay for the infrastructure they were required to put in. At Highland Park...shortly after the builder installed some streets and curbing on the 17-acre site, work halted. The 124 houses planned for the neighborhood were never built. In March, the city declared the site a public nuisance."
"Bellevue Ranch opened its first model homes in 2005, as Merced was riding a wave of real estate speculation and unprecedented home price appreciation. When it's completed years from now, the community could hold as many as 6,000 houses and apartments."
"Today, parts of the subdivision are occupied, complete with green lawns and cars in driveways. But other sections are swaths of overgrown land. Cables and pipes that were meant to be hooked up to future houses now poke through 4-foot weeds."
"One partially built neighborhood, Riverstone, seems completely abandoned. A row of four deserted model homes is fronted by a bone-dry yard. On the next street sit 15 lifeless houses. Half are finished, but empty, the rest are partially built plywood husks."
"City Attorney Diaz said the city has been approached by investors interested in buying parts of the Bellevue Ranch development."
"Between May 2007 and May 2008, the median price of a new home in Merced dropped from $360,000 to $243,990, according to the California Building Industry Association. Sales of new homes during that period dropped 64 percent, with 84 new houses sold in May 2007, compared with 30 sold in May 2008."