Countdown To Las Vegas - Day 9
For those in the process of finalizing your registration plans, please wrap this up as we are waiting to place the T-shirt order.
A report from the Las Vegas Sun. "Anyone looking to regain the appreciation they lost on their homes during the correction over the last 18 months is going to have to wait awhile, according to Scott Dugan, one of the leading appraisers in Las Vegas. Dugan says the local housing market is about to be hit by another wave of foreclosures — possibly three to four thousand — that could send prices spiraling down even further. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have had a moratorium on foreclosures that lifts at the end of January, he says."
"'We are going to get hit with another wave of listings that may, in turn, drive down the market further than where it is today,' Dugan says."
"One market that investors are no longer pursuing is condominiums, especially the condo-hotel market, Dugan says. 'That market is gone,' he says. 'It used to be a nice market, but not anymore. Financing has dried up.'"
"Units at the MGM Signature, for example, have fallen 60 percent to 70 percent in value for anyone who purchased them in 2006 and 2007, he says. Residential condominiums have fallen 40 percent to 50 percent in value in the last two years and that market is still falling with no end in sight, he adds."
"Las Vegas research firm SalesTraq reports that of the 15 high-rise projects in the valley, nearly half have less than 60 percent of the units sold. And of those already sold, a growing number are in foreclosure proceedings. The state of the condo market and inability of developers to close out units are expected to lead developers to rent units until the market rebounds."
"Streamline Towers in downtown Las Vegas, for example, has closed on only 10 percent of its 275 units, according to SalesTraq. One Las Vegas has closed on 15 percent of its units. Condominium sales have slowed because the credit crunch has prevented many buyers from securing financing. Others have simply walked away from their deposits because the opportunity to flip the units is gone as the units have decreased in value."
"Newport Lofts, a downtown Las Vegas residential condominium project that has closed on 64 percent of its units, has slashed prices in half in some cases with units going for under $200,000, SalesTraq President Larry Murphy said. The reason in part is developers are competing against their own buyers who are selling their units as part of short sales to ward off foreclosure."
"'We have homeowners who for the most part bought as an investment and intended to flip them to make a profit,' Murphy said. 'The first ones in were those who had success, but we are seeing a substantial amount of foreclosures for (the second wave) buyers who paid higher prices. We are seeing foreclosures in the high-rise market just like the rest of the housing market. It is not immune.'"
"With only 58 percent of the condominium units closed in Las Vegas, passers-by see plenty of unlit rooms at night, Murphy said. That already is a common occurrence because many condominium buyers are purchasing second homes and spend only part of the year here, he said."
"What stands out in the statistics is that Trump has closed on only 22 percent of its 1,282 units while Palms has closed on 57 percent even though both started closing about the same time, said Steve Bottfeld, executive VP of Marketing Solutions.. As the credit market was drying up, properties with a higher number of closings had better programs in place to retain buyers and help them obtain financing, Bottfeld said."
"'The question you have to ask yourself is what went wrong,' Bottfeld said. 'I think (Trump is) the poster child for what went wrong in high rises (because of the credit crunch).'"
"Sky Las Vegas and Turnberry Towers...aren’t offering discounts but renting out units and waiting to sell them when the market returns, analysts said. 'They are holding back because they know it is going to be several years before high rises are going to be built again, and they are not going to give them away because of the current market situation,' luxury high-rise Realtor Bruce Hiatt said. 'They know once they are gone, they are gone.'"
The Economist. "For a glimpse of the old, confident Las Vegas, visit its newest hotel. Steve Wynn’s vaguely Chinese-themed Encore, which opened in December, is packed with heavy draperies and well-drilled staff. It has thousands of indoor flowers, flat-screen televisions in the bathrooms and a restaurant where the décor changes every half-hour or so. One of its boutiques sells a bejewelled object adorned with a butterfly for $269. Closer inspection reveals it to be a toothbrush-holder."
"No doubt it seemed like a good idea two-and-a-half years ago, when work began on the hotel. Today it seems delusional. Such a quick decline (see chart) would be painful anywhere. In a state with a tradition of boosterism it has caused something of an existential crisis. Perhaps the most shocking news to locals is that Clark County’s population, which more than doubled between 1990 and 2007, has declined slightly in the past year."
"'We thought the only business cycle was up,' laments John Restrepo, a Las Vegas consultant."
March 31, 2006. "Housing prices are flat, high-rise condo projects are canceling sales, and now land values have dropped by almost half in Las Vegas, local research firm Applied Analysis reported. The average price for an acre of vacant land in the valley was $376,200 in the fourth quarter, down 47 percent from the previous quarter and down 28 percent from the same quarter a year ago."
"Several factors contributed to the decline in land prices, Brian Gordon said Wednesday....'Land prices that shot up by as much as 99 percent during the past 18 months are ‘clearly unsustainable,’ Gordon said."
March 30, 2006. "The $3 billion Las Ramblas luxury condominium-hotel project backed by actor George Clooney is no longer taking reservations at its sales office on Convention Center Drive. ‘The sales office is not closed,’ Related Las Vegas President Marty Burger said Tuesday. ‘There are lots of rumors. Don’t believe everything you hear. When something is concrete, we’ll call you. I can’t talk about it now. Sorry.’"
"Paula James, vice president of the Curve, said sales have been suspended, but the project has not been canceled. Developers had a 180-day contingency period to reach 75 percent presales required for financing and failed to meet that goal, she said. 'Most lenders want to see at least 60 percent in presales before signing off on financing. ‘It (presale percentages) kept going up as the media got more negative,’ James said. ‘The number kept going up as other properties continued to not be built. It just made lenders nervous.'"
"Bob Joseph said he liked the looks and location of the Curve, but he didn’t like the contract. The deal, he said, allowed the developer to change the floor plan specifications and required the buyer to pay the escrow fee and seller’s tax. ‘That’s when I started to say it’s not the right deal,’ he said. ‘We were looking at it as a rental. If there’s going to be a glut of condos built in Las Vegas, it’s not going to be a seller’s market.'"
March 28, 2006. "Paul Murad, a condo developer and author of ‘Manhattanizing Las Vegas,’ said the city was not ready for a high-rise project in the suburbs. ‘You can’t blame it on construction, you can’t blame it on architecture,’ he said. ‘We’re finding that people who like the suburbs like the suburban lifestyle and that means a single-family home. A high-rise in a suburban family setting is a bit premature.'"
"It’s much tougher to convince developers about projects in the suburban market, said (developer) Tim Sullivan. ‘My thought is if we had the Curve developed, it would be highly successful,’ he said. ‘But they’ve got to prove it. Right now, there’s a lot more hype than reality.'"