Local Market Observations
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Statistics? "The Assessor's Office will mail 475,296 Assessment Notification letters which detail each property's assessed value as of January 1, 2011 (lien date). Each notice serves as the basis for the calculation of property taxes contained in the property tax bill to be mailed in September. The overall number of properties assessed below their purchase price increased five percent to 124,148. The total reduction in assessed value of these properties increased thirteen percent to $27 billion."
"Twenty-seven percent of all single family homes, and forty-nine percent of all condominiums are assessed below their purchase price, primarily due to the collapse of the residential real estate market. For the first time, home values in some high income areas experienced a steeper rate of decline compared to the previous year. For example, last year in Los Altos Hills 342 properties were assessed below their purchase price for a total reduction of $320 million. This year, the assessed value of 471 properties was reduced and the total amount of reduction jumped to $1.4 billion."
"'Basically, it means our economy has not yet recovered, due to the record level of distressed sales or foreclosures,' said County Assessor Larry Stone."
Economic forecasts? "A report released by the U.S. Conference of Mayors shows that the Valley's economy won't be improving any time soon. The report stated that in 2010, the Phoenix area had the 7th lowest economic growth in the country at 0.9 percent. Phoenix was well behind places like Oklahoma City (7.5 percent), El Paso, TX (7.2 percent), and Buffalo, NY (5.4 percent)."
"Chris Camacho is the vice president of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council. He said that the Valley's dependence on housing and construction, just before the recession hit, set the area up for a big economic crisis. 'We're more reliant on housing and construction jobs than Detroit, Michigan is on the automotive sector,' said Camacho. 'If you think about the vast supply tied to the automotive industry in the Midwest, this is a significant issue we are dealing with.'"
Or foreclosures? "Petitions by banks to the state land court, which is the traditional start of a foreclosure process, fell by 72 percent in 26 area communities between May 2010 and May 2011, according to The Warren Group. The drastic drop in activity is not a sign that the economy is recovering, said Vincent Valvo, editor and publisher of Banker & Tradesman, a newspaper owned by Boston-based Warren Group."
"'This is not a sign of people paying their mortgages. This is a sign of banks who are scared of judges,' Valvo said. 'There is nothing else in the economy that explains this. Unemployment has come down only nominally, wages have not risen significantly, the economic outlook of the state hasn't shot through the roof, prices of homes haven't risen, and sales volume hasn't risen. This is a paperwork issue.'"
"Last fall, lawmakers in Massachusetts also extended the period between when homeowners default on their mortgages and when lenders can file petitions in the land court from 90 days to nearly five months, Valvo said. The result is a greatly slowed process that has drawn out the purge of bad mortgages from the housing market."
"He compared conditions to a leaky faucet. 'We don't have a flood anymore, but we can't turn it off either,' he said. 'It's going to be this annoying splatter of homes in limbo that's going to interfere with the rational housing market for years. What's going on right now is excellent for people who are facing the loss of their home. It's an absolute nightmare for everybody else who needs a functioning, realistic housing market.'"
"The result has been a constant trickle of homes that are sold by banks at greatly reduced prices, undercutting values for traditional sellers. Andy Luke, a sales associate at Re/Max Home Finders in Natick, said agents have to try to prove to buyers that a low sale price isn't the final cost."
"'The foreclosure properties just continue to put a strain on us,' Luke said. 'We've got to take into account that buyers kind of know now that foreclosed properties are distressed properties. ... They get blinded by the price, but then they go inside with me and they're shocked about the condition they're in.'"
"Luke said the below-market prices keep normal-priced houses on the market a lot longer. 'If (the foreclosures) were to come on the market all at once, that would make it worse, but what we have right now is still really bad, unfortunately,' he said."