What Would Have Been Unthinkable
Bloomberg reports on the UK. "Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the selloff in emerging markets may worsen, posing the risk of higher borrowing costs and weaker growth in core markets. Even as U.K. banks’ exposure to Russia is 'very modest,' and ties between the two countries 'relatively limited,' Carney said the central bank was 'not complacent at all about the dynamics in the global economy.' 'There is a risk that, in economies where core inflation is already weak, particularly some parts of the euro area, low headline readings further depress expectations of future inflation,' the BOE said in the report. This 'could result in slower rates of growth of nominal incomes, increasing the burden of existing debts.'"
"Tighter lending standards may still be contributing to a slowdown in mortgage approvals and might be deterring borrowers and banks from high-risk loans, officials said. 'High household indebtedness continues to pose risks to financial stability,' so recommendations in June against risky mortgages “continue to act as insurance against a significant deterioration in lending terms,' the BOE said."
RTE News reports on Ireland. "In a review of risks to the Irish economy, the Central Bank noted that house price growth in Dublin is now higher than that recorded at the peak of the property bubble in 2006. House price growth in Dublin has been above 23% since June. The Central Bank said Irish households remain highly indebted, leaving them vulnerable to economic shocks, falls in income and rises in interest rates. There has also been a rise in the number and value of mortgages in very long term arrears - classed as more than two years overdue."
"It warned that in the current low interest rate, low inflation environment increasing numbers of investors are searching for yield - a return on their money - and that this is increasing the risk of volatility in the financial system. The Dublin office market and Government bonds - which have benefited from the inflow of foreign funds - are vulnerable to a change in investor sentiment if higher yield opportunities present elsewhere."
Reuters on Canada. "Fort McMurray has long drawn thousands with jobs that paid six-figure salaries to a region that produces more crude than anywhere else in the Western Hemisphere. But a slide in oil prices since June has fueled a sense of unease in the community of nearly 73,000 which for over a decade has rarely known anything but the good times. Some signs of a looming slowdown can already be seen in the local property market. New housing starts in the municipality of Wood Buffalo comprising Fort McMurray and nine surrounding hamlets are forecast to fall 62 per cent this year, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation."
"Two-story-high ‘now leasing’ signs that adorn some downtown apartment blocks, would have been unthinkable at the height of the recent decade-long boom when, as mayor Melissa Blake put it, the city had 'more people than places to put them.' 'There seems to be a lot of layoffs up here so people are just kind of holding on to their money,' said Sandy Mastel, a manager at Raven Truck Accessories and Motor Sports."
The National on Dubai. "The property broker CBRE is predicting that if the price of Brent crude continues to drop for a sustained period then the huge government-owned funds tasked with spending surplus cash on assets abroad may cut back on their ambitious plans to buy European trophy assets. 'The biggest impact is potentially on the international property markets than the local markets,' said Nick Maclean, the managing director of CBRE’s Dubai office. 'And the sovereigns in the GCC are such an important component of new cash for the international markets that if that is withdrawn a little then it has an impact.'"
"CBRE said housing rents in Dubai rose 1 per cent during the final three months of the year, cancelling out a 1 per cent fall recorded during the third quarter. At the same time sales prices increased 18 per cent over the year – down from 30 per cent in 2013. The company added that more than 20,000 new homes are expected to enter the market during the course of the next 12 months, which 'could have a deflationary impact on sales and rental rates.' It said there were 65,000 new units potentially going to be delivered over the next three years."
ABC News in Australia. "The rural town of Katherine has gone from a well-publicised housing shortage to an 'unusual' lack of rental demand, according to a real estate agent. Territory Rural's Alison Ross told 105.7 ABC Darwin that Katherine housing demand had anecdotally dwindled to its lowest level in almost a decade. 'There hasn't been this certain number [of houses] available for quite some time,' she said. She put the trend down to several factors, including economic downturn, the development of additional defence housing, and the scaling back of mining operations at Roper River and Pine Creek."
"The mayor of Katherine, Fay Miller, said the housing market had noticeably dropped, but this was partly due to cyclical factors. She said mining redundancies and new housing developments were contributing to the rental glut, but things were not set in stone. 'I'm sure that we will see things start to pick up again [and] that those rates will certainly improve.'"
Smart Property in Australia. "With almost double the number of listings on the market in Western Australia compared to last year, one real estate commentator has warned against overpricing properties for sale. 'The days of coming up with a dream price, then adding on another 10 per cent, are well and truly over. Today’s buyer is much more informed and simply does not have the time to be deciphering over-priced properties,' said RE/MAX WA managing director, Geoff Baldwin."
Quartz on China. "Between 2003 and 2012, $1.3 trillion slipped out of mainland China—more than any other developing country—says a report by Global Financial Integrity, a financial transparency group. $725 billion—more than half of the outflows from the last decade—has left since 2009, just after the Chinese government launched its 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package. The government’s June 2013 crackdown on fake trade invoicing caused a seize-up in liquidity, pushing banks close to a meltdown. This precarious relationship with liquidity might partially explain 'Operation Fox Hunt,' the crackdown on Chinese government officials who have fled China or transferred assets to family members abroad."
"With China’s real estate market in the doldrums, its economy slowing, and its leader cracking down, the 'foxes' have more reason than ever to sneak their spoils overseas. Making sure they don’t isn’t just a matter of legality, but of protecting China’s financial system from freezing up once again."
Want China Times. "Luo Fei, mistress of China's former railways minister and transportation bureau chief Zhang Shuguang, has been sentenced to five years in prison for taking bribes. The court ruled that the monetary support she received from Chang constitutes a bribe, reports our Chinese-language sister newspaper China Times. Zhang is 25 years older than Luo and is married. He has been known for being a 'naked official' since his wife and children emigrated to the US, where they bought houses and opened companies."
"His expenses increased dramatically when he was courting Luo. Zhang called Ge Jianming, president of railway equipment maker KTK Group and asked for money. Ge handed Zhang a black briefcase containing two million yuan (US$325,000) in cash. Zhang set aside 700,000 yuan (US$113,000) of the savings to pay for his and Luo's daily expenses and used the remaining and his own savings to buy a house as a gift to her."