Oversupply May Be A Reality
A report from the Dorchester Reporter in Massachusetts. "The owner and developer of a 27-unit condominium building nearing completion on River Street near Mattapan Square last week asked for the community’s blessing to change it from condominiums to rental apartments, citing financial pressures and a changing market that he says are working against homeownership sales. At a Boston Planning and Development Agency (BPDA) meeting, Joseph Taylor said that the project was his most ambitious endeavor, as he already owns and manages several smaller multi-family dwellings in Boston and Quincy. Consultant Mike Foley said the financing had become unworkable at condominium prices. The market will not support a condo project of this size, he said, adding that only four condo sales had closed in the last year in the entire Mattapan neighborhood, with another six under agreement."
"When Taylor secured short-term financing for the building, beginning what would ultimately amount to a $4 million investment in the property, outlooks for development were 'optimistic,' Foley said. Now, however, 'based on today’s market, it just isn’t feasible the sell out this building,' Foley said. Some of those in attendance questioned the wisdom of Taylor’s financial decisions, with some saying they were annoyed by advertisements for renting the apartments before the change officially took place. Foley said the rental outreach was to gauge interest and mollify the bank, which would foreclose on the property if it cannot reasonably turn a profit."
The Orlando Sentinel in Florida. "Orlando's real estate industry emphasized two things as it summed up recent market conditions for a slow time of year: prices are up and so are interest rates. But both prices and sales volume slid from October to November, which is typical for that time of year. 'I think the market has slowed down some,' said Rustina Gibson, broker of Re/Max Vantage LLC in Lake Nona. 'It could be because of the holidays. It's turning back into a buyers' market for anything over $250,000.'"
"Gibson said she has seen builders' inventory of new homes increase in southeast Orlando and they are offering higher commissions to real estate agents to help drive sales."
The Coloradoan. "Kiersten and John Guerrero and their four children, ages 2 to 9, are celebrating in their new home — a four-bedroom, two-bath house on nearly a half-acre lot in Wellington. The first-time home buyers financed their $258,000 purchase with a Rural Development Loan through the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It restricted them to houses outside Fort Collins and Loveland city limits, so they looked in Timnath, Wellington and Laporte. Timnath's prices 'were a little ridiculous,' and Laporte had no inventory, Guerrero said. They found a 43-year-old home in Wellington for $258,000."
"The Guerreros, who make about $30,000 a year, could not have afforded Fort Collins' median home price of $375,000. She works for Larimer County, he is a stay-at-home dad. Fort Collins Housing Authority pays part of their $1,200-a-month mortgage so they are not paying more than 30 percent of their income on housing. 'We have to keep everything pretty tight, but it's doable,' she said."
"Todd Spiller of Spiller Realty Services said rising interest rates and a flood of new apartments in the development pipeline might ease vacancy rates and push rents down. That could force some investors out of the market, which could lessen competition, especially at the lower price points, he said. But with every interest rate hike, 'you lose a few buyers,' he said. 'Eventually that will erode that bottom end.'"
From Bisnow. "The main decision-maker for lending millions of dollars to commercial real estate firms at one of the country's largest banks says apartment oversupply may be a reality in some parts of the country. SunTrust Bank's Kathy Farrell—just named head of CRE this summer—tells us multifamily developers could very well be getting ahead of themselves, particularly in some areas of Washington, DC, Nashville, Charlotte and even SunTrust's home turf of Atlanta."
"'Do we think there are pockets of potential oversupply in market-rate multifamily? Possibly,' she says. 'So we're paying attention to that.' And that means SunTrust—regularly ranked among the 20 largest banks in the US with nearly $200B in assets—will pull back even more on construction loans for apartments next year. SunTrust isn't alone in its caution. Earlier this week, Wells Fargo SVP Melissa Frawley (center)—also based out of Atlanta—says her bank's multifamily construction financing was down by 65% from the previous year, and that she was closely watching the next wave of apartment deliveries hitting the area."