Where Things Start To Wobble And Teeter
A report from the Union Tribune in California. "Towering over a part of San Diego known more for offices than apartments, The Rey is one of downtown’s biggest apartment complexes in years. Coming in at 22 stories with 478 apartments, the development will balloon to more than 900 units if it decides to build a second tower already approved by the city. It lives up to its luxury status with a rooftop pool complete with a lounge and kitchen area, two-story gym, expansive views, top of the line appliances, and a lobby that looks more like a fancy hotel than an apartment building. Residents will pay for the amenities with rents about 24 percent more than the average rent in San Diego County."
"Its opening comes as national trends appear to show a major slowdown in rent growth for luxury units, but most local experts say San Diego will not suffer the same fate because the need for more apartments is so high. Realtor Jason Cassity, who works downtown with sellers and renters, said he has noticed rent growth slowing downtown at other complexes and ones where his firm serves as property manager. 'We used to property manage a few doors and, almost religiously, assume we could raise the rent 10 percent every year or every turnover. That’s not the case anymore because of the increase of supply,' he said."
"Andrew Woo, data scientist for Apartment List, predicts the areas where rent went up the quickest in recent years, like San Diego, will see the biggest slowdown. 'For new luxury apartments coming online, they may find it more challenging to fill vacant units, which explains why you're seeing so many specials right now,' he said."
The News Gazette in Illinois. "Champaign County home sales topped 3,000 in 2016 for the first time in a decade, increasing 8.23 percent from a year earlier. For homes priced under $400,000, Champaign County Association of Realtors President Jim Waller is seeing more of a sellers' market, with four months of supply, while there is 81/2 months of supply of homes priced over $400,000, creating a buyers' market. 'Homes under $400,000 are performing better than the luxury segment,' Waller said. 'That's not necessarily a concern. More younger people are coming into the market, and they're not buying homes over $400,000.'"
The Palm Beach Post in Florida. "By one measure, at least, Palm Beach County’s housing market is on fire. From late 2015 to late 2016, the county’s home prices jumped 12 percent, the highest appreciation of any metro area in the country, according to a recent study by Ten-X. Even as home prices bounce back, Palm Beach County incomes have been essentially flat over the past decade. In another example of uneven appreciation, there’s strong demand for entry-level homes but not for more expensive properties."
"'We are seeing strong appreciation, but it’s not across the board,' said Randy Bianchi of Paradise Properties of Florida, a real estate brokerage in West Palm Beach. 'When you get above that $300,000 to $350,000 level, things are sitting longer.' And in the higher price ranges, demand seems even softer, said David Dweck, head of the Boca Real Estate Investors Club. 'When you get to the half a million market, that’s where things start to wobble and teeter,' Dweck said. 'Sellers’ expectations are too high right now. If you’re around $500,000, you better be priced right, or you’re going to sit on the market.'"
"Appreciation varies by location, too. Over-55 neighborhoods are languishing, but hot neighborhoods such as West Palm Beach’s South of Southern area have seen big price jumps. 'In that section of town, we’ve had huge appreciation,' Bianchi said. 'The prices are getting a little crazy.'"
From Crain's New York Business. "Yes, there is a glut of luxury rentals sprouting up on Manhattan’s West Side, in Long Island City and in downtown Brooklyn. High-end condos are poised for distress. Super towers continue to rise in places like Billionaire’s Row, but sales of these ultra-pricey pads have stalled. The upcoming oversupply will allow investors to buy portions of a high-end project’s debt, either at a discount or low enough in the capital stack to take control at a discount."
"Richard Mack, co-founder of the Mack Real Estate Group, plans to provide luxury developers with cash infusions in return for sizable ownership stakes that will ensure him profits even if the units are sold with steep price cuts. Buying New York real estate still requires huge amounts of capital. One workaround is to partner with owners who bought when prices were a fraction of what they are today."
"'I’m seeing a lot of demand among real estate investors to partner with longtime real estate owners,' said Martin Polevoy, a co-head of DLA Piper’s real estate practice. Such partnerships allow investors to bring the cash to reposition or redevelop a property, then profit on the upside without being saddled with the costs of having bought the property in today’s heated market."
The Press of Atlantic City in New Jersey. "To Dan Boddy, a veteran real estate agent based in Galloway Township, mortgage foreclosures aren’t just a key part of the Atlantic County housing market. 'They’re the dominant factor. That’s what’s selling,' says Boddy, of Century 21 Frick Realtors. 'I was talking to a local title company a few months back, and they said that was about half their business now.'"
"New Jersey had the highest rate in the country last year, at 1.86 percent of all homes with some foreclosure activity. The state also led the U.S. in the number of 'legacy' foreclosures, according to ATTOM, meaning the loans date to between 2004 and 2008. Plus New Jersey had the second-longest average foreclosure process in the country, at an average of 1,383 days, or almost four years from start to finish. 'The majority of them are still tied to those older loans,' said Daren Blomquist, ATTOM’s senior vice president. 'That’s an indication that we’re still dealing with the last crisis and not the more recent economic troubles. They have not even completely shown up in the foreclosures.'"
"Based on his 22 years in real estate, Boddy has to agree with that national perspective. 'I don’t think that’s even hit the market yet,' he says, meaning foreclosures caused by casino closings."