A Preponderance Of New Supply
A report from Multi-Housing News. "Jeffery Hayward, head of Fannie Mae’s multifamily mortgage business, shared a few highlights from 2016, as well as initiatives that Fannie Mae is embarking on in 2017. MHN: Where are you seeing a concentration of new supply? Hayward: Dallas will have a lot of new units coming online. So will Austin and Denver. Seattle has been that way for a while, along with San Francisco, San Diego and L.A. Typically the new construction is aimed toward higher rent and income levels."
"MHN: How will market forces impact loan quality this year? Hayward: There are some challenges in the market around new supply, meaning there are some markets with lots of new supply coming in. There will be a little bit of stress on the market because there is so much new production coming on. Particularly, there are about 12 or 13 markets in which there is a preponderance of new supply. All of that doesn’t necessarily fit what we do because some of it is very high-end product."
From Construction Dive. "Builder and developer sentiment on the outlook for apartment and condominium construction maintained its strength in the fourth quarter of 2016, edging up two points from the prior quarter to a mark of 55 on the National Association of Home Builders’ Multifamily Production Index. Multifamily developers are bullish on the segment’s fundamentals, but a flurry of units coming online in the country’s largest metros suggest saturation ahead for some, forcing rents down."
"Chicago, for example, is expected to see rents begin to decline by the second half of 2017 as the apartment rental market there reaches capacity. Inventory in that city is expected to be up 150% from mid-2005 by 2018, according to data from Appraisal Research Counselors. Supply in that category is also beginning to outpace demand in Washington, DC. A recent analysis of Census Bureau data by Greater Greater Washington found the District added 4,682 new units in 2016, the second-most since the government agency began tracking the figure in 1980. The growth has occurred primarily in multifamily construction, and is concentrated in three emerging neighborhoods."
"A report by Axiometrics cited in The Wall Street Journal earlier this week noted that the number of new multifamily units is expected to hit its highest level in 30 years in 2017."
The Business Observer in Florida. "Real estate firm Quadrum Global, which has bought and turned around hotels from Chicago to New York to Miami Beach, might be new to senior living, but its executives certainly aren’t timid. Quadrum director of U.S. investments Seth Schumer got interested in the senior-living sector in 2015 when Quadrum looked into buying a distressed senior living facility in Fort Myers. The company ultimately passed on the deal, but in the process Quadrum executives met and clicked with Colin Marshall, a 20-year executive in senior living management."
"Marshall says the amenities at Avida will also be something special. Plans for the 488,265-square-foot campus include a bar bistro, private theater, dining hall and four open-air courtyards. Multiple other projects in the region also promise resort-living and high-quality amenities. Schumer acknowledges the word 'overbuilt' came up in the firm’s research for Avida, especially anecdotally. But the data he looked at doesn’t necessarily prove the specific market Avida targets is at saturation level, he adds. 'We are really excited about this,' Schumer says. 'We think we can build a better mousetrap.'"
The Memphis Daily News in Tennessee. "The Memphis area is seeing a boon of mixed-use developments underway or in the works, from repurposed and renovated properties. As a second-tier metropolitan market, most of Memphis’ mixed-use projects have been spearheaded by local investors. However, more out-of-town investment is likely to follow, as many first-tier markets are saturated and more expensive from a developer or investor standpoint."
"'Many of Memphis’ peer markets are becoming oversaturated, and out-of-town investors have noted the dearth of new housing in many parts of the core city,' said Josh Whitehead, planning director for the Memphis and Shelby County Office of Planning & Development."
From Biznow on Virginia. "As it prepares its $8.4B merger with Vornado, The JBG Cos is abandoning one of the biggest placemaking projects it had planned in the region. The Chevy Chase-based developer is looking to sell its six-property, 2,664-unit apartment portfolio in Alexandria's West End. This comes as Vornado is also halting some of the NoVa projects it had planned. The developer shelved the 933-unit addition it had planned for its RiverHouse apartments in Pentagon City. It also put on hold two of its Crystal City projects."
From Mansion Global on New York. "In its weekly snapshot of Manhattan’s luxury housing market, real estate brokerage Olshan Realty found that 29 contracts were signed last week at $4 million and above, five more than the previous week. However, Olshan stressed that the headline-grabbing number masked underlying problems—particularly the average time a property spent on the market. 'One is tempted to paint a rosy forecast for the spring, but let’s not overlook a cloud or two on the horizon,' said Donna Olshan, president of Olshan. 'Year-to-date, the average days on market is 415, a 32% increase over the same period in 2016.'"
"The moral, said Ms. Olshan, is that sellers who lower their prices to a realistic level 'are more often than not rewarded with a sale.'"
The Houston Chronicle in Texas. "Houston-based Weingarten Realty Investors, which owns neighborhood shopping centers throughout the city, will add a 30-story residential tower to its flagship retail property next to River Oaks. Weingarten senior vice president Gerald Crump reiterated the company's commitment to owning the property for the long term. Despite a current glut of new apartments in the urban core, Houston is a resilient market, he said. 'We're not merchant developers and we're not really as concerned about timing the market as the merchant developer would be,' Crump said."
The Morning Call in Pennsylvania. "The Plaza at PPL Center, home to Talen Energy, could soon be headed for the commercial mortgage bond equivalent of foreclosure, a move that would open the door to new owners who could offer lower, more competitive rents. The current owner, a group called The Plaza at 835 W. Hamilton St., which purchased the property for $83.5 million in 2007, missed a $67 million balloon payment on Dec. 1, sending the loan into default."
"The company that oversees its overdue loan reported this month that if the owner is unable to renegotiate loan terms, it plans to transfer the building's title to a special servicer, according to Trepp LLC, a company that tracks loans included in commercial mortgage bonds. If The Plaza goes to a special servicer — a company that specializes in liquidating commercial mortgage bond real estate — it will eventually end up in the hands of a new owner whose hands won't be tied by the need to make payments on a pricey mortgage."
"Experts have said the building is likely worth far less than the loan's $67.4 million balance. Located at Ninth and Hamilton streets next to PPL Tower, it cost $43.5 million to construct. It is one of downtown's Allentown's showcase properties, which — if Talen leaves — would be rendered mostly vacant and in search of tenants. Talen's rent is at least 30 percent higher than what is charged for comparable downtown offices."