High-Flying Developers Bring Their Work In For A Landing
A report from National Real Estate Investor. "Developers still hope that Millennials will help fill the slowly growing number of vacant apartments across the United States. They might be right. More than a million Millennials still live at home—less than a few years ago, but still a substantial number, including some who are likely to eventually rent apartments. 'There’s potential upside in demand there,' says Ron Witten, founder of Witten Advisors, an advisory firm that focuses on the apartment sector."
"Witten Advisors continues to forecast a relatively healthy apartment market two years from now. 'Our outlook has remained about the same—slower rent growth, but still above average in most markets, as more supply opens,' says Witten. 'The markets generally don’t have an oversupply problem, but many do have a supply concentration problem, with many new projects in the same neighborhoods leasing up simultaneously and softening rents in the short term.'"
From The Herald in Washington. "More than 2,000 apartments are being built across Snohomish County — with more on the way. That leads to the question: How many are too many? 'It depends on who you’re rooting for — whether you’re rooting for the owners, the developers and the office managers or the tenants,' said Tom Cain of Apartment Insights Washington, a Seattle real estate market research firm."
"Most of the development occurring in the county is happening near the Snohomish-King county line, said Tom Hoban, CEO of the Coast Group in Everett. 'All of it leased up quickly, as we might expect,' said Hoban. 'We could see a minor oversupply in the short term, causing vacancy rates to tick up to 6 percent, but long-term fundamentals are strong.'"
From The Oklahoman. "Aircraft carriers and apartment construction have at least one thing in common: Neither can stop on a dime. The multifamily building boom is over, courtesy of the 2014-16 crude oil price slide, but it will be a while before high-flying developers bring their work in for a landing. That's the gist of the construction section of Price Edwards & Co.'s 2016 year-end multifamily market survey, prepared by broker David Dirkschneider."
"Historically low loan rates, strong oil prices and a growing workforce caused an expansion in apartment building here for just more than a decade ending with the steep dive starting in early 2014. Nearly three years later, apartments are still going up despite a decline in occupancy to just less than 90 percent, the lowest in recent history, Dirkschneider said. Dirkschneider reported 3,400 new apartments completed last year in Oklahoma City, about one-quarter of them downtown or in the urban core at The Lift, The Metropolitan, the second phase of The Maywood. Only 1,454 were rented."
"'Often we receive questions regarding why developers continue to build when the market has already signaled a softening, and the basic answer is they are simply fulfilling projects already in their pipeline,' Dirkschneider wrote."
The Miami Herald in Florida. "Downtown Miami’s real estate market is slowing fast, just as developers are preparing to deliver the most new condos in a single year since the last bubble. Nearly 3,500 downtown condos will be delivered this year — a surge since the Great Recession. On the rental side, about 4,900 rental apartments are under construction downtown — which, combined with the 1,000 rental apartments that were delivered last year, should slow rent increases, according to the Downtown Development Authority report. The asking prices for rentals have declined, the report found."
"While the sliding demand will limit financing for some new projects, it’s also a sign of a market stabilizing after five years of continuous growth that some analysts had worried might lead to another condo glut. 'I said last year the developers were making decisions based on the timing of the market,' said Anthony Graziano of Integra Realty Resources and one of the lead authors of the report. 'This year, their bankers are.'"
The New York Times. "As rents in Brooklyn slip but inventory continues to mount, landlords are locked in a fight to fill their apartments. After lavishing their buildings with outdoor cinemas, high-end markets and spa-caliber pools, landlords have decided to offer hefty freebies, like several months of rent and other concessions. Particularly pitched, brokers say, is the battle playing out along the Flatbush Avenue corridor in Downtown Brooklyn, where rental complexes have quickly sprung up."
"'The market seems oversaturated, but I like to use the word oversupplied with my clients so as to not create a panic,' said Marie Bromberg, a Corcoran Group agent."
"A renter who is considering renewing an existing lease and who hears about discounted empty apartments in the same building might demand a similar bargain, said David J. Maundrell, the executive vice president of new developments for Brooklyn and Queens at Citi Habitats. Mr. Maundrell added that the rental market may be shallower than many think. 'It gets to the point where you start to wonder, how many people are out there that can afford rents like this?' he said."